Seeking Alpha

Lucas Krupinski

View as an RSS Feed
View Lucas Krupinski's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Science Lesson For Charlie Munger [View article]
    I think his point is, don't just keep burning fossil fuels willy-nilky assuming a fix will appear. I know many people in alternative energy amd they all talk great talk. But until they can provable produce all the energy we consume currently at equivalent cost. (That second part is very important), its just a pipe dream.

    Munger said something else, somewhere else. It went something like "we've got all sorts of ways to propel vehicles, but only one way to produce enough fertilizer for our crops. They're both oil. If we run out of oil, well be able to come up with a new way to propel vehicles with little issue. But if we run out of oil, well be stumped about how to produce enough food for everyone who needs it. Yet we continue to burn up the source of tomorrow's food today"

    Again. Rough paraphrase. But I couldn't agree more.
    Jul 26 08:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The Market Not Buying Apple? [View article]
    I hope one of the things you do isn't dealing with your online bank and brokerage accounts. There are many other reasons I like apple products, but the just the simple number of virus' and Trojans on the android platform (and found in the app stores) gives me severe pause about ever trusting important information to them.

    Besides which, I like using a product that the vendor continues to support and provide updates for for years after its release, compared to the android market which seems to be "oh, you want the latest android operating system? That's easy, go buy a new phone!
    Jun 18 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is The Market Not Buying Apple? [View article]
    I hope one of the things you do isn't dealing with your online bank and brokerage accounts. There are many other reasons I like apple products, but the just the simple number of virus' and Trojans on the android platform (and found in the app stores) gives me severe pause about ever trusting important information to them.

    Besides which, I like using a product that the vendor continues to support and provide updates for for years after its release, compared to the android market which seems to be "oh, you want the latest android operating system? That's easy, go buy a new phone!
    Jun 18 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The rumored iWatch will be more "hobby" than major product line for Apple (AAPL), says Jefferies' Peter Misek. Likely not having a cellular chip, the iWatch would need to be paired with an iPhone for full functionality. Starting with some pricing assumptions and then slapping a 5% penetration on the installed iPhone base of 250M would move the EPS needle by only about 1%. [View news story]
    Seems silly to make all these assumptions without knowing a thing. 5% penetration among iPhone users for a device that could cost between 50 and 300 dollars? Lets see if the thing materializes first, then lets see what it's capabilities are, it's price point etc.

    They say don't count your chickens before they hatch, iwatch speculation is akin to counting your chickens before you even have a hen that may or may not lay eggs...
    Jun 18 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Needs Apple And Apple Needs 3D Printing [View article]
    Apple was able to jump start desktop publishing because at the end of the day, almost any one can do a passable job at it, given enough commitment to the task. This isn't to downplay graphic designers skills and abilities, but technical aptitude takes a back seat to a designers eye in that field. So, they created tools (or more accurately, provided the platform so that others could build tools) that allowed people that lacked the technical aptitude (you know, constructing paste-ups, rub on type, etc) to skip that part and move straight on to unleashing their creative side. It worked and a new industry was born.

    3-D printing isn't like that; again from a platform perspective, I can't think of anything that Apple offers or could offer that would make OS X any more able at 3D printing than Windows or Linux. I'll note that I'm writing this on a Macbook Air, while looking at my desktop, which runs a Redhat clone, which itself hosts a virtualized Windows computer. So i'm not out to bash anyone, I use them all.

    But the move from a vision in your head to it being produced on a piece of paper is much less complex than turning that vision in your head into a 3D printed object. That's a job for Autodesk or an upstart. And while graphic designers have to think about typography, they can leave some tasks to specialists (such as color correction and color separation), leaving them to be more focused on their creative side. People producing for 3-D printers can't just create their models and leave it to someone else to actually make the model work in the real world, they need to know all the rules themselves.

    So again, I don't see what Apple would bring to the 3D printing game that's not already out there. True, easier to use software might be nice, but Apple is generally known for providing the underlying platform, not the actual tools. And I don't really see how designing 3-D objects can ever be simplified to the point that ordinary people will be able to make anything but the most rudimentary of objects.

    But then, I will admit to not being a fan of 3-D printing, so maybe that's my issue.
    Jun 15 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitpay Integrates Bitcoin Payment With Amazon.com [View article]
    Bitcoin isn't appropriate for retailers; it can take up to an hour for a transaction to broadcast through the network and be verified, letting a customer leave the store with a unverified transaction represents far more risk than the risk that a customer will do a chargeback.
    May 20 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
    Funny thing, no, the sad thing is that should apple announce a cheaper iPhone, the cries from Wall Street will be "oh no, their margins are going to plummet !" Never mind the huge additional market that such a move could create, both in the us and other developed markets, but more so in china, India and other developing markets,... These people hold margins sacrosanct,even above actually expanding their traditional markets and growing sales.

    A cheaper re-think of the iPhone for all the people for which an iPhone represents an outsized amount of outlay compared to their income - I say go for it.
    May 10 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
    Funny thing, no, the sad thing is that should apple announce a cheaper iPhone, the cries from Wall Street will be "oh no, their margins are going to plummet !" Never mind the huge additional market that such a move could create, both in the us and other developed markets, but more so in china, India and other developing markets,... These people hold margins sacrosanct,even above actually expanding their traditional markets and growing sales.

    A cheaper re-think of the iPhone for all the people for which an iPhone represents an outsized amount of outlay compared to their income - I say go for it.
    May 10 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple You Don't Know [View article]
    You do realize that companies were parking tons of cash offshore before Obama, right? And that corporate America blew their hopes for another tax holiday before Obama too, when they lobbied for a tax holiday to repatriate profits, promising to use that for hiring and then spending it on dividends instead? Though clearly the level of the debt is not a worry to you at all, since you're clearly opposed reducing our deficits and therefore debt growth. Insightful...
    May 10 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple You Don't Know [View article]
    You do realize that companies were parking tons of cash offshore before Obama, right? And that corporate America blew their hopes for another tax holiday before Obama too, when they lobbied for a tax holiday to repatriate profits, promising to use that for hiring and then spending it on dividends instead? Though clearly the level of the debt is not a worry to you at all, since you're clearly opposed reducing our deficits and therefore debt growth. Insightful...
    May 10 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple You Don't Know [View article]
    Rates could rise 5% and we still should have zero interest in the unrealized losses in apples portfolio - mark to market is useless when the company has an unquestioned ability to hold those investments to maturity. There is no event I can imagine that would force them sell them at a adverse price.
    May 10 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN +1.8%) is working on two smartphones - one of which has a 3D screen - and a music-streaming device, the WSJ reports. The 3D phone is said to feature eye-tracking tech that makes images "seem to float above the screen like a hologram," and might also allow users to "navigate through content using just their eyes." Sources cautioned there's no guarantee the devices, as well as an Amazon set-top (previous), will ever be sold. LG and others have experimented with 3D phones, but the devices failed to catch on. The Smart Scroll and Smart Pause features in Samsung's Galaxy S4 enable navigation via face movements[View news story]
    Based on a product that is no more than rumor?
    May 10 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Identify Market Distortions Caused By The Fed [View article]
    No, that's based on any amount of cash. If you're a net buyer of stocks (As I am - I'm in my accumulation years) you want cheap stocks so you can buy more. When you're a net seller of stocks, that's the time you want High prices. It works with any amount of cash, and really, if anything, its most appropriate for people with limited capital, since they're the ones who should be doing the most accumulating. It's a good lesson for all of us.
    May 7 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing - Opening Pandora's Box [View article]
    "Shorting this stock would be like shorting MSFT in 1990."

    Supposing that this is the Microsoft. Recall, there were also Digital Research (CP/M and DR-DOS) and Novell. Later than that and with no potential for taking over the world, were the folks making BeOS - Apple fans should count their lucky starts that forums such as SecondMarket didn't exist back then, because Be Inc was the absolute darling of the Apple universe for the couple years leading up to Apple's purchase of NeXT instead.

    But point being, especially in an industry so young, it's incredibly unclear who the winners will be. You can call any company in it a potential Microsoft, but for every potential Microsoft, there are going to be dozens of potential Digital Research's.

    Computers, I think, are different than 3D printers in their reach and potential. Computers are tools - even in the beginning at their most basic, one could buy a computer and use it as a wordprocessor - barely any additional knowledge beyond knowing how to type was required. But 3d printers need a lot more specialized knowledge, and for that reason, I'm not sold on the mass market appeal of them. Sure, there will definetly be markets and uses for them that don't exist now, but if they "only" transform the manufacturing and design industries, but even in doing so, that would be a massive failure to live up to the hype that proponents have for the technology. Just like direct to press and plateless printing have transformed the printing industry, but outside that industry, only the fortune 500 really sees fit to bring their printing operations in house as a result of the technology. And plateless printing is another area where, I'm sure, had the echo chambers of message boards that exist on the internet today been in full force a decade or two ago, that would have been viewed by so many as the ultimate transformative, democratizing technology as well, despite it's ultimate market being only with the people that had presses in the first place.

    In that case, maybe you're not looking at the next Microsoft at all. I can't think of a
    May 6 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New S&P 500 Price Target: 2001 [View article]
    Throughout history, we've always been in uncharted territory. To call a market top in the making, but that that top could be anywhere from around the corner to several years out is, well, rather vague.

    For the past several years, ever since the crash really, I've read so many people predicting market tops and saying that each new level of the stock market is unsustainably high - but i've also noted that along the way, and despite laments that the only reason the market is where it is is because the Fed has made fixed income investing so unappealing, the P/E for the market is nowhere near any sort of danger zone. The S&P 500 trades at 18 times earnings - that's at the higher end of the spectrum, but far from nosebleed levels. And any improvement to Earnings will lower that number.
    May 6 08:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
596 Comments
872 Likes