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Lucas Krupinski

 
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  • Microsoft And Apple Did Build 'That' [View article]
    its 20 to 100mm. More likely its closer to 20 than 100. People focus on IRA contributions and 401k contributions, but i think the most likely was from a defined benefit plan, which can contribute a LOT more than a 401k can. So that gets you part of the way there, add some creative accounting to apply discounts to assets being transferred to his IRA when he left, and then the subsequent growth, I can imagine that getting pretty close to 20mm....

    The funny thing is, he probably looked at it as a tax dodge. Whereas, if, say, the total amount of contributions to the plan were $3mm (just pulling a random number out of thin air), and he had that same growth, he'd have 17mm of capital gains at the ready to be taxed at 15%. Instead it's all ordinary income, to be taxed at the highest rate possible.

    Maybe that's why he's running. To fix the tax code before lousy decision making comes back to bite him?

    :)
    Aug 6 12:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Russian Telecom Giant Trumps Verizon & AT&T [View article]
    Ted,

    If i could hit like to your comment a dozen times, I would. Investing in russia is FAR from buying shares of a US company (or any other stable country with decent property rights). No one who is interested in the relative stability of AT&T should be dumping those shares in order to replace them with a Russian telco. Or anything Russian. Those positions should be saved for the speculative segment of a portfolio.
    Aug 1 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasuries Telling A Much Scarier Story Than Stocks [View article]
    all the currency printing has only ended up in the big banks, not into regular circulation. It can't inflate if it's not circulating.
    Jul 16 10:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Investors Can Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    i was involved in many debates around the Jan to Mar 2009 time period. Saw a lot of people exit the market despite my impassioned pleas to stay the course.

    The mania had hit such an extreme that to me, dumping more money was a no-brainer. Many companies good and bad had been seen their share price get slaughtered - and a dow in the 6000-7000 range was far too much of an over reaction. Sure, you couldn't pick the exact bottom (i didn't - i did most of my buying in Feb 2009), but i felt like the only choice was to buy. Why? Either a bottom would be hit soon, or the system as we knew it would collapse, and there'd be no purpose to having dollars - they'ed just be these things that you looked at and remembered the good ol' days back when we had a functioning government, infrastructure, and there weren't armed bandits outside of ever major population center.

    That was it everything was so extreme - either things would get better or they wouldn't ever be able to get better. Unfortunately only one person (my girlfriend at the time) took my advice and not only stayed the course, but she rebalanced her portfolio (which had gotten very much outside her initial targets) so as to have more equity exposure. Her and me were the only ones of my friends that stayed through, everyone else exited, selling right near the bottom and patting themselves on the back saying "cash is king". And of course, many people that hopped out didn't return into the market until the dow had hit 10,000 once again, which means they suffered huge permanent losses of capital.

    Many of the books I read reinforced that philosophy, and it also helped that many of our clients financial advisors were saying the same thing, so i knew i wasn't alone in the world.

    And even now, when we get volatility and spike down, i can't bring myself to panic. I will say over and over, I'm young, i'm in the accumulation phase of my life - I want lower prices. As low as they can get.
    Jun 27 07:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risks Of Secondaries After Ex-Dividend: Mortgage REIT Investors Should Take A Wait And See Approach [View article]
    The cash they are raising from a secondary goes towards purchasing additional assets, not towards paying the dividend.

    Secondary's (share issuances) are not so good for companies with real operations - the time it takes between issuing shares and deploying that new capital (say, building a new manufacturing plant) tends to mean that there are a lot of new shares out there enjoying a piece of the companies earnings, meanwhile the companies earnings won't grow until the plant is finished.

    MREIT's are different. The time it takes to deploy the new capital they raise is minimal - they issue shares, take in the cash, and then purchase new MBS's. They might stage their purchases over several days or a couple of weeks, but the point is that the cash is put to work in short order, and the issuance of new shares doesn't affect the existing holders in the slightest, except for the usually temporary decline in share price when the offering occurs.

    Disclaimer - long AGNC (and MTGE and NCT) and have held through many a secondary without detriment, so far.
    Jun 26 10:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take A Pass On Leveraged ETFs [View article]
    That people continue to "invest" in these means that they haven't gotten the point yet.
    Jun 5 09:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Fate Could Be Very Similar To Microsoft's [View article]
    So the author first compares Apple to Facebook, which is blatantly absurd.

    Then goes on to say that the smart phone market will double in size in the coming years, but Apples share will slip from 18.2% of a smaller pie to 16.9% of a much larger pie.

    Which justifies a potential drop in market value of 40%. Meaning he expects it to trade around a P/E of 7 or 8 (lower than JP Morgan with its debt bet gone bad, lower than Citi with all its garbage on its balance sheet). Meanwhile, in the coming year, Apple will most likely have added another $40 billion cash to its balance sheet.

    Seriously??? This is only the third article i've read by this author/outfit, and the first was horrible, and each one is progressively worse and worse...

    I need to pay more attention to author names before clicking on articles, apparently.
    May 24 11:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Return To The Gold Standard Could Destroy The Modern Economy [View article]
    No, it was a lack of regulation of commercial entities that cratered the economy. Not that I don't love attempts at revisionism, but you're just doing yourself a disservice by pinning blame anywhere but where it should lay.

    Good article, OP.
    Feb 23 09:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time of Hype and Hope Is Ending (Beware the Collapse to Come) [View article]
    I always say, if you hate government and taxes so much, just be quiet and move to Somalia. That'd be your sort of place.
    Oct 4 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Tying Fortunes to Broader Global Equities [View article]
    I thought it was a well written article that a lot of people could learn something with.

    Given that the majority of money managers underperform the market, that goes against the timing theory. Sure, some time the market well at times, and others time well at other times. But for the end investor, none of that matters unless they can pick which on will make the next right move.

    I think there was a blip from 2008 to 2009 of panic sales, followed by a return to more rational pricing... Just because there was a panic, it doesn't mean that the markets aren't more efficient than not. It just means that there was a panic.

    How many professional money managers (indeed, anyone) were plunking money in at the bottom? Not many, hence the reason there was a bottom.

    I think the benefit of staying invested through thick and thin outweighs trying to engage in market timing. If that's too much risk for you to stomach, then adjust your asset allocation until you can sleep at night. And rebalance when your allocation gets out of whack.
    Aug 12 02:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Index Investing Is No Panacea [View article]
    I do think that she had a valid point to ask that question. She's not a professional investor trying to justify her fees, and she doesn't sound terribly wealthy - therefore her goal isn't to blab about the returns she got last year or the year before at the next cocktail party, but to make sure that she's not paying too much in the way of fees for the amount of money she's got under management.

    Your track record (per this article) seems superb though, and with that record, she should have some trust in you. A lot of the problem we have in the markets now are people who are "investing" now are really just trading, unable to see their strategies through. However, on the flip side of that coin is that most professionals seem unable to beat the index that they're using as their benchmark.

    So, she read an article somewhere, asked a question, and you're able to give her an answer that hopefully is to her liking.

    Again, I applaud your skill in navigating the last decade, and wish more professionals were able to manage risk the way you have.
    Feb 22 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Debate: Here's Why You Should Be Wary [View article]
    If gold is infact in a bubble right now (i believe it's far overpriced, and agree with the author that a big reason for the run-up is the demand by retail investors who are chasing returns), then buying gold now won't be a store of value, but instead will be an asset of declining value.

    Previously, gold moved more-or-less with other commodities, but this run-up has shown that the enthusiasm for gold as a hedge against inflation has out ran all of the other inflation-sensitive instruments.


    On Dec 22 09:04 AM The EconomicJoker wrote:

    > I look at gold this way. Our financial system will collapse at some
    > point (years out) and gold will be the only thing that allows me
    > to feed my family. If I make a profit, great. But I am looking
    > at it l for storage of value.
    >
    >
    Dec 23 11:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short The Home Builders? [View article]
    I don't think lower rates will do anything to stimulate home purchases. Buyers already see the lowest rates that they've ever seen and aren't pulling the trigger, possibly in anticipation that rates could go lower (at which point, they'll continue to wait to see if they go even lower). That doesn't mean there's no market for housing or for mortgages, just that potential buyers don't see the need to rush; were the Fed to slow down their purchases, to announce higher target mortgage rates in the future, that would probably be the best way to get people off the sidelines. That would create a sense of urgency that doesn't exist right now, and that sense of urgency won't be created by knocking a few more basis points off of already historically low mortgage rates.
    May 6 07:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Following Bezos' Strategy To Sacrifice Short-Term Gain For Long-Term Potential [View article]
    Actually, every share they offered to the public was sold, at the highest price that people were willing to pay, which is why we didn't see a huge bounce. Now, if theyed offered those shares for $19, and then saw them immediately trade as high as $38 or $44 per share, that would have been a failed iPo, as they would have left a ton of money on the tab,e during the course of accessing the public equity markets for the first time. So no, their iPo was far from a failure - it was executed as every company should hope their iPo would go- the only people who experienced failure were those who lined up to buy at the opening bell, hoping to make a few quick dollars in what they hoped would be a game of easy money.
    May 4 06:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
    A lot of people say that - that they're putting off purchases until the pullback theyed like to see arrives. If they're really stick to their guns, then they've missed a decent amount of appreciation,along with distributions along the way.

    What if the pullback you're awaiting never happens? Or it does happen, but in 4-5 years? Talk about opportunity cost.

    Not to say i wouldn't loves pullback. About my only regret in the last 5years, investing wise, is that I didn't have more money to du p I tothe market during the last two months of its decent. Here we are today with no idea where the market will go next I don't think letting cash pileup on the sidelines is a prudent choice for myself, so I do the next best thing - look for companies with strong fundamentals that (i think and hope) that offer decent returns today and which I think can withstand another market rout. I'd rather be accumulating shares now and then reducing my basis in the event of a major correction than let cash pile up waiting for a correction to occur at some future unknown date.
    May 1 12:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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