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Macro and Cheese

 
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  • Bear No More - It's Time To Get Beta In China [View article]
    The problem is, things in China are getting worse, not beta.
    Dec 2 04:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nonfarm Payrolls Number Is Negative In A Weird Way [View article]
    Don't forget Paulo that Bernanke has commented that the headline rate doesn't reflect the shrinking of the labor force so I think Bernanke specifically would not be swayed by that. It does change the Fed's political landscape but the chair would probably not be swayed.
    Oct 5 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprise Ending For The European Drama? [View article]
    ...or not.
    Jun 13 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprise Ending For The European Drama? [View article]
    Warren Buffett talks his book, like any CEO of any company. Do you really believe Bill Gross when he talks about bonds?
    Jun 9 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary: Here's The Thing About Deflation [View article]
    Five, I think it's semantic. I see your point.
    Jun 5 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary: Here's The Thing About Deflation [View article]
    I would not say deflation is not the falling of prices. What is deflation if not the falling of prices? The surging of risk aversion may happen to coincide with deflation, and probably would, but that is not deflation. Following the spike in inflation of the 1980s there were many moments of risk aversion, but no deflation for many, many years.
    Jun 4 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Losing Confidence In Government Rescues? [View article]
    Oops, wrong time zone...
    Jun 3 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary: Here's The Thing About Deflation [View article]
    This is as simple and clear an explanation of our current predicament as I have seen. It demonstrates why this is secular, not cyclical, and amazingly just a few short weeks ago the overwhelming conventional wisdom was that another cyclical recession was well behind us.

    ECRI will in all probability be vindicated, along with Hussman, Rosenberg, Shilling. This is not going to be pleasant.
    Jun 3 10:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Losing Confidence In Government Rescues? [View article]
    Touche. You make some good points, and I would like to see an entire article on your notion that tech companies should trade at lower multiples due to their new vulnerabilities (if you haven't already).

    This chart by Doug Short (a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha) does a fabulous job of highlighting government intervention (QE etc) and what happened afterwards:

    http://bit.ly/M9GV7D

    I suspect the problem is even worse than what we've seen. Each intervention gives the market a short-term boost but leaves an overhang of the eventual unwinding of the intervention. With QE, treasuries must one day be sold by the Fed, raising interest rates and draining the economy of cash. LTRO loans must be repaid. And worst of all, Keynesian spending must be offset by higher taxes or deep government cost cuts.

    Merkel is the only politician in Europe with half a notion of what needs to be done, and she almost certainly will be voted out next spring. This is going to take a long, long time.

    When this is over, I think ECRI will be owed an awful lot of apologies.
    Jun 3 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperinflation In America: The Dramatic End Of The Dollar? [View article]
    It's hard to argue hyperinflation with 30-year bonds at 2.5%. Sorry but we could just as easily argue the triumphant return of latin as the new esperanto.
    Jun 2 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
    Richard I agree. We have become so pain-phobic that we can't see the forest for the trees. I do understand the real concern that austerity hampers growth, but we need to find a balance of austerity with some measured level of pain. It's the only sane way out.
    May 26 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
    Which means, effectively Italy is raising taxes. Austerity => recession.
    May 26 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
    I would go farther and say, why would the Eurozone attempt a common currency without adapting federalism first. The whole thing seems badly flawed, fine when things are good, and completely dysfunctional when things go wrong.

    As Mike Tyson said, everybody has a plan til you get punched in the face.
    May 26 11:07 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greece Won't Exit The European Union [View article]
    Or: How could the US become as poor as Greece? ; )
    May 20 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greece Won't Exit The European Union [View article]
    And Obama tells Merkel to ease up on austerity.
    May 20 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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195 Comments
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