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Macro Economist

 
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  • The Junk Bond Market Is Telling You To Sell Stocks [View article]
    This was a ridiculous article littered with sound financial analysis, facts, and common sense. :-)
    Aug 4 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Your comments (and insult) and position to be a seller of volatility at current levels are duly noted.
    May 16 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Of,

    I will let you know how it works out. My average price is now around 40 on VXX.
    May 15 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Yes, the author is willing to hold this. The author does not have an obligation to tell you what he is going to do do, but he will...

    The article discusses an imminent opportunity which I believe is coming to fruition as I write. I come to this conclusion because my stocks/bonds indicator, which I use concurrently with the action in short vol ETN, will turn negative if the market is down tomorrow. This only happens once in a few years.

    Hence, I will be selling VXX on the next move up. If that moves is 5% and reverses, I'll be out. If the move is 50% and reverses, I'll be out. If it's 100%, I am going to party.

    You are welcome to private message me in a week or so should you want more detail. I'd like to not comment on this article anymore.

    Good luck.
    May 6 05:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    The stop loss has been lowered to a time loss.

    I expect the trade to bear fruit by the end of May. The divergences i monitor have gone on way too long and there has to be "resolution."

    I also will not be commenting on this article anymore.

    Either the trade works or it doesn't. There isn't much to say; the naysayers believe the roll is substantial enough to take advantage of. I don't know the view on vol - single digits - I guess!

    The bears - me - see massive diveregences in reality and volatility, including.

    Sell in May and Go Away, Year 2 Presidential Cycle
    S&P500 record time above 200 day moving average - hey let's double down!
    Freeze in Leverage loan buyers for dividend recaps
    Russia/Ukraine
    China
    Rally in bond markets
    Break in speculative momentum names
    Large Retail inflows versus institutional pare down in equities
    500% gains in the free lunch trade of being short vol

    But of course, none of this overcomes the power of the roll! And remember, everything I said is priced in that's why spot vol is at 12.8, going to 5.

    Goodbye.
    May 2 11:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Middle East Is Awesome, And Here Are The Pictures That Prove It [View article]
    I am totally long Syria here. Middle East rocks! - literally!
    Apr 30 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    USer 18214212, is your commentary a joke? If so, haha.

    It's a well known FACT that Berkshire Hathaway routinely sells puts and that selling insurance is by definition a short volatility strategy.

    http://bit.ly/1hUuf5d

    http://on.ft.com/1hUugpU

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Apr 30 08:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    The title of the article is ..."a once in a few years opportunity."

    I believe more than ever that is what is setting up with respect to volatility. The implication that is that one should only be long vol once every few years.

    If you attempted to trade VXX more than once every 2 years, on average, then sorry but you were being stupid.
    Apr 30 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For IBM [View article]
    IBM is a dinosaur.

    One word: Cloud
    Apr 30 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Excellent summary. The lack of upside is evident by the lack of new highs in XIV.

    Vol sellers can't be betting on substantially lower VIX since we're at or near historical floor levels.

    All they are doing is squeezing out the 1% monthly roll yield for an instrument that when you're short from these levels, can lose 50% in a month based on a normal correction (you know, the kind that used to happen once a year).

    Good luck on Ukraine, China, Year 2 of the Presidential Cycle, Negative Seasonality, etc.

    Could the vol sellers be right, of course. Anything that goes down 99.5% over 5 years clearly has pretty horrible asymmetry. But there are those times, once in a few years, that you'll be thankful for being long vol.
    Apr 30 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    The buyers are all the people who are short, as measured by comments on the article.
    Apr 30 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    VIX Trader, your comments are noted in cherry picking linearly extrapolating the performance of this article after 3 days.

    You believe that shorting VIX from its current level of 13.75 for a potential move to 12 is a safe move.

    If you want to squeeze water from a rock, be me my guest.
    Apr 30 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    When VIX has big impulsive moves, I find the stochastics and MACD on XIV and/or VXX a good indicator to use to exit.

    In really big multi-year moves 200 day Bollinger bands work well...those sorts of moves don't come often though.
    Apr 29 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    Love it. You're right.
    Apr 29 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In Few Years Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    VXX would fall in your scenario, market would likely rally, all else equal.

    Those who are selling vol and picking pennies in front of a steamroller will live another day.
    Apr 29 07:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
340 Comments
380 Likes