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Macro Economist's  Instablog

Macro Economist
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I am a 13 year veteran of the buy-side, with over a decade of experience in Investment Management, at one time overseeing several billion dollars in hedge fund assets for institutional clients. Currently, I advise wealthy families on their investment portfolios as well as trade my own money. ... More
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  • I Dedicate This To All The VIX Bears...

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long VXX.

    Tags: VXX, XIV
    May 18 9:31 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Is It Time To Reconsider Brazil?

    Readers know I have been bearish on Brazil for a couple of years and am likely to continue to be until I see a global washout.

    That being said, the Brazilian Central Bank has taken proactive steps as of late. Real Rates in Brazil are 4%, but more importantly inflation could be falling as shown in the chart below.

    If that's the case, investors may want to reconsider shorts in EWZ and perhaps even scaling in long positions.

    (click to enlarge)

    Ideally, I'd want to see a good inflation print before jumping the gun on the long trade here. On the other hand, shorts need not be greedy with the RSI divergence beginning to show up in the charts. A better short entry point could be coming.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: EWZ
    Aug 23 11:28 AM | Link | Comment!
  • MREITs Set To Outperform - NLY, AGNC, TWO

    I'm not a big REIT guy and hence an Instablog post instead of a full article.

    But the MREITs are pretty easy to analyze since you know what managment's objectives and motivations are with respect to absolute profit maximization.

    Hence, looking at MREITs on a book-value mean reversion basis is as good as any in terms of determining cheapness vs. richness.

    On that front, there can be little doubt that current valuations on MREITs are the best we've seen in some time.

    Using the gold standard, Annaly (NYSE:NLY), as a reference point, we see the following:

    (click to enlarge)

    If history repeats itself, this could be a good time to buy the MREITs.

    Disclosure: I am long TWO.

    Tags: NLY
    Jul 13 7:51 PM | Link | Comment!
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