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Macro Management

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  • 7 Silver Miners vs. Silver [View article]
    Still very peculiar, although it might be the industrial demand side of the equation. Is there an organization that produces materials on silver like the WGC does for gold?
    Mar 28 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Silver Miners vs. Silver [View article]
    Any insight as to why August 2010 was the inflection point for Silver?
    Mar 26 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Silver Bull and the Curious Case of PSLV [View article]
    August 2010 seems to have been inflection point in Silver. Does anyone understand how the fundamentals changed since then?
    Mar 26 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    I somewhat agree with your comments. However, If you would like a model that focuses on return on capital over cost of capital than residual income models do just that.
    Mar 24 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at 8 Silver Producers by Cost per Ounce of Resources [View article]
    Agreed. Extraction costs are key. Anyone know how to get the average extraction costs per ounce of silver mined. That has to be the answer to the variability in performance in silver miners. Some have returned 4x others have not even doubled.
    Mar 23 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    The valuation matrix gives my assumptions some slack. My discount rates are also more conservative than the average analyst's. I used the WMTs Bond Yield Curve and added an additional risk premium of 3%. Discount Rates on cash flow, residual income and dividends are close to 10% for flows far into the future.

    My opinion is that FCF model is useless for retail investors b.c. they don't have any say on free cash flow. It's Appropriate for investor's like Buffett and Icahn who take major stakes and are aggressive investors. Residual income is a better model bc it measures the return on capital over the cost of capital. Dividend discount models are always crude proxies. I think the best possible model is the relative pricing model which gives Walmart a value closer to $62. That is closer to the consensus of most commentators on here.
    Mar 23 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Is Fairly Priced [View article]
    Don't think its appropriate to assume that the last 15 year's revenue growth will continue indefinitely.
    Mar 22 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Railroad Stocks: 2 Strong Engines for Every Investor's Portfolio [View article]
    Do you know why CP has been underperforming CNI?
    Mar 21 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Complete List of NYSE-Traded Railroad Stocks [View article]
    Anyone know why CP has been underperforming CNI since the beginning of February?
    Mar 21 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Bad Products, Good Valuation [View article]
    Thats the ideal trade, although I would sell the 12.5 calls. You could still have a 100% trade if the stock would rally to 11 by January 2013. Not sure why there aren't as many articles or recommendations of buying in the money calls - especially with companies with low risk of bankruptcy.
    Mar 14 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T or Walmart? Dividend Yield vs. Dividend Growth [View article]
    Doug, good article. I was wondering whether you computed the 1 year and 5 year dividend growth rates or whether you used a source? Which methodology/source did you use?
    Mar 13 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Bad Products, Good Valuation [View article]
    6 strike July 2011 calls at 2.58_2.65. You pick up the stock at cash with free leverage. Can't beat that.
    Mar 9 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Light Sweet to Brent Crude Trade Easier Than Predicting Oil Prices [View article]
    CL @ NYMEX. Light sweet Crude. Not colgate-palmolive.
    Mar 9 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Buying Oil Reserves In the Ground, On the Cheap [View article]
    Solid Article. I think seeking alpha should focus on coverage of this kind.
    Aug 10 05:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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