Comments on Macro Monitor's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/macro-monitor/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271101 271101 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:37:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271084 271084 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:21:42 -0400
I have worked on Wall Street for 21 years and know CDOs like the back of my hand. However, I have the integrity to stand up and say that Wall Street is screwing America and this bail out will lead to serious inflation and take our country down in a big big way.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271066 271066 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:57:16 -0400

Given that US authorities will probably be responsible for both execution of all AIG CDS (through the takeover of AIG), and (de)valuation of most CDOs (through the TARP aka. "Paulson Plan"), what is the most interesting option in the following :

1° TARP at low CDO value
(entails : low TARP costs but high CDS default premium for the State, weaker banks)

2° TARP at high CDO value
(entails : high TARP costs but low CDS default premium for the State, stronger banks)

3° TARP at original CDO value
(entails : highest TARP costs but no CDS default premium for the State, healthiest banks)


In an otherwise sane banking world, I'd say solution 3 makes the most sense, but...


Also, what will happen with the 300bn in CDS bought by European banks(*)(**) from AIG as guarantee on the numerous CDOs they bought on WallStreet?

In particular, what happens to the smaller banks that definitely have CDOs and CDS but have not access to the Paulson Plan? One imagines (***)they immediately will go bankrupt and be takebn over by UBS, DB, Lloyd, Santander and the like.

This hypothesis leads to a new specific consequence of the TARP : a massive conslidation of deposit banks in Europe, trigerred by US authorities...

(*) référence Financial Times Alphaville :
ftalphaville.ft.com/bl...
(**) référence Fortune :
money.cnn.com/2008/09/.../
(***) référence Economist:
www.economist.com/fina...

see also :
www.lacrisepourlesnuls...
lacrisepourlesnuls.blo...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271065 271065 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:55:50 -0400
Here's a much better and less expensive plan. www.daveramsey.com/etc.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271063 271063 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 21:54:58 -0400 The problem is fear. Credit markets/interbank/over... are frozen because of counterparty risk and the lingering "run-on-the-bank" potential. Mass deposit exodus occurs when depositors fear the loss of their uninsured assets. Murmurs of insolvency & undercapitalization trigger it all.
The Treasury should first make banks gather Tier 1 organically:
1) Scrap common stock dividends
2) Convert debt to equity
Squeeze shareholders--the literal owners of these banks, who really shouldn't be receiving dividends given negative trailing and forward earnings--not taxpayers.
Then, give a smaller sliver of our budget [deficit] to Paulson/RTC II to buy that toxic crap. In a perfect world, Paulson's purchases could chip away at Bush's deficit.
That's my outline, I'd love to elaborate.
btw, I'm currently long XLF.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271029 271029 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:46:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271024 271024 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:36:45 -0400
I'll give you a pass, maybe your youth makes you particularly susceptible to the great propaganda machine about the great free market system of the USA. Or maybe you hope to join the ranks of the corrupt and now exposed to be incompetent Wall Street "fat cat" bankers responsible for the fiasco which is the financial crisis.

You are defending a bankrupt, or soon to be bankrupt economic philosophy based on corporate welfarism masquerading behind a free-market ideology.... Socialism for the billionaires, capitalism for the rest of us. Enough said....
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98114-paulson-s-plan-stop-the-rot?source=feed#comment-271022 271022 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:32:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95392-gse-bailout-unlikely-to-help-with-housing-crisis?source=feed#comment-263911 263911 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:02:33 -0400
You can read and hear about it here:
www.daveramsey.com/tdr...

Seriously, take a second to send an email, and forward this along.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95392-gse-bailout-unlikely-to-help-with-housing-crisis?source=feed#comment-254436 254436 Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:12:12 -0400
If you want to end the housing crisis, let prices return to affordable levels. The endless tripe about saving house prices is sickening. Where are the headlines to help gold or oil bulls? What about helping out gamblers (whoops, Paulson is already doing that!)?

Get stuffed with you BS about house prices. They are too high and need to fall another 30%. Then, maybe, we can start rebuilding the economy on a sound base.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92352-where-will-the-markets-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-238723 238723 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:10:54 -0400 HeberWho? I'm sorry you feel that way, though I find it entertaining that you took that time to post such a comment.

Cheers]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92352-where-will-the-markets-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-238513 238513 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:48:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92352-where-will-the-markets-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-237874 237874 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:00:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92352-where-will-the-markets-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-237652 237652 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 11:10:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90257-the-credit-debacle-brewing-a-second-season?source=feed#comment-228137 228137 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 16:51:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90257-the-credit-debacle-brewing-a-second-season?source=feed#comment-227832 227832 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 11:55:23 -0400
Ironically, the cure (printing more money) is the affliction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90257-the-credit-debacle-brewing-a-second-season?source=feed#comment-227808 227808 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 11:37:38 -0400
Unfortunately, I don't think we've even seen but the tip of the proverbial iceberg.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90257-the-credit-debacle-brewing-a-second-season?source=feed#comment-227746 227746 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:43:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87369-if-commodities-falter-export-reliant-currencies-could-follow?source=feed#comment-216869 216869 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:03:19 -0400
naplsguy - I find it entertaining that you took the effort to make that post.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87369-if-commodities-falter-export-reliant-currencies-could-follow?source=feed#comment-216535 216535 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 11:38:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87369-if-commodities-falter-export-reliant-currencies-could-follow?source=feed#comment-216427 216427 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 10:23:13 -0400
One should also keep in mind that Brasil must pay off overly generous interest rates on it's bonds. In addition, one must remember that Brasil, for all it's recent progress, is mostly a third world country with most the population still in this mode. When commodity sales lessen it has little to fall back on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-211839 211839 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:24:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209977 209977 Sun, 20 Jul 2008 14:42:26 -0400
Solar, wind, tidal have not been the first choice; China and many developoing countries has learned what pollution does and that there are now alternatives. They will switch just as Europe, Brazil, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Holland when "foothold" power defeated - just as what the US is fighting right now in big oil, coal, etc. Alternatives have a difficult row to hoe. Just as defeating unions required elimination of mfg, outsourcing, etc. The energy transition will be slow but sure here and worldwide. Guess we just get to watch, should we live that long.

Do you think hydro would have ever made it in the US if it was strickly based on private business push and cost/benefit analysis? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209564 209564 Sat, 19 Jul 2008 21:09:03 -0400 Nakedjaybird since you don't quantify anything,equating the alternatives as to time to achieve a given amount of energy or the relative costs, is simply an assertion of the either /or persuasion and not the comprehensive plan that solves our most pressing economic problem.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209550 209550 Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:54:03 -0400
Where were they and/or what happened to all the objectors to oil rigs during the last 100 years (while farmers throughout the Nation huggged and blessed their windmills)? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209492 209492 Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:31:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209408 209408 Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:47:19 -0400
We must address our consumption with more than mileage targets, clean air reasons, etc, and Al Gore tribe global warming noise. Deliberate conversion from crude to many free "somethings else" in parallel, like a house afire. Again, we are a very resourceful people under wise leadership.

Hey, according to this mornings paper even Al Gore agrees with 1/2 of my argument (no hydrocarbons for POWER GENERATION; now if we can convince folks of no hydrocarbons for TRANSPORTATION). So, now we're getting somewhere; well the Democrats are. Goodness! If the drill, drill, drill Republicans are not careful this election will go to the Dems. And they (the Republicans deserve it -and I am one; well, have been one!).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209190 209190 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 23:19:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209134 209134 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:07:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209129 209129 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:44:49 -0400
Whereas, if crude-based TRANSPORTAION were electrifed, requiring even fewer than those 7 Quads of useful enengy for the same work, and those < 7 Quads were supplied from "forever available on the surface" solar, wind, tidal, etc., at current conversion efficiencies which are pure gain, we would need only to add to the 12 Quads of electricity we already generate, transmit and distribute from source to end user.

We know how to electrify and find wind, sand and water to do solar, wind and tidal, etc.

We should strive much more to put solar and wind into place than to ever explore and drill or mine coal, oil, or gas, etc.; it would be simpler and easier, including the electrification of TRANSPORTATION, starting with the diesel-electric rails, and the others to be built, etc....... ]]>