Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

There is too much euphoria about now. I know what keeps Obama awake at night. Let’s say we spend our $2 trillion and get a couple of quarters of weak 2% type growth. Then once the effects of the stimulus wear off, we slip back into recession, setting up a classic “W” type recession. Unemployment never does stop climbing. This happened to Roosevelt in the thirties. So congress passes another $2 trillion reflationary budget. Everybody get’s wonderful new mass transit and alternative energy infrastructure. But with $4 trillion in spending packed into two years inflation really takes off. The bond market collapses, the dollar tanks big time, gold goes ballistic to $3,000, and silver to $50. Ben Bernanke’s replacement has no choice but to engineer an interest rate spike, taking the Fed funds rate up to a Volkeresque 20%. Housing, having never recovered, drops by half again. This all happens in the 2012 election year. Obama is burned in effigy, a Mormon is elected president, and the Republicans, reinvigorated by new leadership, retake both houses of congress. We invade Iran. Crude hits $200. This is not exactly a low probability scenario. Remember Jimmy Carter? This is why junk bond yields are still stubbornly high at 14.5%, and credit default swaps are at lofty levels. The risk of Armageddon is still out there. Just thought you’d like to know. Pass the Ambien.

S&P 500 Buy and Sell Ratings

Er &g There is some fascinating action going on the options market right now. There is some massive buying of short dated puts in Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM), while buying of longer dated puts has weirdly almost vaporized. These are the only two high priced big bank stocks left. It is not happening in Citibank (C) or Bank of America (BAC) where there is so little meat left on the bone that buyers don’t want to feel like they are the last man at an all you can eat buffet. Brace yourself. This is good news. It means that traders expect to see some short term volatility in these names. After that Obama’s bank bailout, stimulus program, and new budget will start to kick in and come to the rescue of the sector. Call me the “options whisperer.” I stroke these things, and they speak to me.