Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Unemployment Abounds - But Not for IT and Management Consultants

Or nurses. Or census takers. The May nonfarm payroll came in at minus 539,000, better that the consensus of minus 650,000, taking the unemployment up to 8.9%. The improvement was caused by temporary hiring of government workers for the 2010 census. A peak above 10% now looks like a chip shot. Including discouraged workers, we are now at 15.8%, moving towards the great depression peak of 25%. In several industries, like autos, real estate, and construction, conditions are already worse than the thirties. It is clear that not a drop in stimulus money has led to any appreciable hiring yet. This may be the last really terrible number in this cycle, but you can expect continued hemorrhaging for a while.