Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Friday FX View: Surging Chinese Data Sets Positive Weekend Tone

verd I would be woefully remiss in not mentioning the impressive five cent rally Uncle Buck has pulled off against the euro since last week. Call it yearend profit taking, attempts to beat higher taxes in 2010, or a bump up a key technical level, if you like. The reality is that when too many traders sit at the same table for a free lunch, the table has a nasty tendency to upend. This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I posted six risk alerts since October. It is absolutely no coincidence that dollar surrogates like gold and oil, have also been rolling over like the Bismarck. The long term fundamentals for the dollar still look ghastly. But they looked as bad during the financial crisis when the greenback shot up from $1.60 to $1.20, in a heartbeat. Hot money trades are like a wild beast that has to breathe. Just make sure you stand out of the way when it exhales.

Wednesday FX View: Thanksgiving Raid on the Dollar

hgs Welcome to the new gold standard! There was a time that to own gold you had to be a “gold bug” and believe in the myriad urban legends that percolated in the underground. Fort Knox is either empty, or full of gold plated steel bars. The Treasury cut back on the minting of new gold coins because it had to ship the bulk of our reserves to China to cover the trade deficit. The US government is going to ban private gold ownership again. The Feds have unwittingly fanned the flames of paranoia, with the Patriot Act forcing all American gold and jewelry dealers to register with the Treasury Dept. But adherents to the yellow metal are considered raving nut cases and conspiracy theorists no more. Emerging market central banks, pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and millions of individuals around the world have all simultaneously decided to keep a certain percentage of their assets in the barbaric relic. They are either making a bet on an extended super cycle in favor of all hard assets, or looking for insurance against a wave of hyperinflation that Washington’s policies threaten. Enthusiasts are no longer burying pillow cases of coins in the back yard, but instead are pouring into an ever expanding legion of ETF’s, mining shares, bullion, and futures contracts. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), with $37 billion of the yellow metal, is now the world’s sixth largest owner of gold. Some economists are now arguing that if you take world GDP and divide it by the value of the gold above ground today, an historic mean ratio would put the yellow metal at $11,000 an ounce. That makes the current spot price look like the deal of the century, and my target of the old inflation adjusted high of $2,300 positively conservative.

Monday FX View: The Dollar Stands Still

iiw It’s all about the dollar, which I have despised all year like the red headed stepchild it has become (click here for my initial recommendation). The assured onslaught of federal debt issuance headed our way will be the overriding investment consideration for traders and portfolio managers for the next decade. That will knock the stuffing out of the greenback against every currency except the Zimbabwean dollar, and even that will rally when you get a long overdue regime change. As the new currencies of barrels of crude oil, 100 pound ingots of copper, or rail cars of iron ore won’t fit into your wallets or purses, foreign currencies offer a great dollar alternative. There was once an argument that foreigners piled into these currencies to capture a huge yield pickup, but even that advantage is now gone, with almost everything now yielding nothing. The soggy buck also explains a lot of what is going on in our stock market, with companies earning most of their revenues from increasingly wealthy foreigners, like those in technology, energy, and commodities. As I write this, I am looking at new one year highs for my favorite picks of the former British crown colony currencies of the Canadian dollar (FXC), up 28% YTD, Australian dollars (FXA) up 49% , and New Zealand dollars (BNZ), up 80% dollars (for my C$report click here ). Their bounteous natural resources, Anglo-Saxon contract law, a semi common language, and vibrant ports make them the safe bet of choice. Sure, they are all overheated and way overdue for a short term pull back. But over the long haul, you can count on the loony to hit parity, to be eagerly followed by the Aussie dollar, and then the kiwi.

Pre-FOMC Trading Thoughts

rfc ) I spent the evening with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Bernanke was the smartest kid in rural Dillon, South Carolina, who, through a series of improbable accidents, ended up at Harvard. He built his career on studying the Great Depression, then the closest thing to paleontology economics had to offer, a field focused so distantly in the past that it was irrelevant. Bernanke took over the Fed when Greenspan was considered a rock star, inhaling his libertarian, free market, Ayn Rand inspired philosophy. Within a year the landscape was suddenly overrun with T-Rex’s and Brontesauri. He tried to stop the panic 150 different ways, 125 of which were terrible ideas, the remaining 25 saving us from the Great Depression II. This is why unemployment is now only 9.8%, instead of 25%. The Fed governor is naturally a very shy and withdrawing person, and would have been quite happy limiting his political career to the local school board. But to rebuild confidence, he took his campaign to the masses, attending town hall meetings and meeting the public like a campaigning first term congressman. The price of his success has been large, with the Fed balance sheet exploding from $800 million to $2 trillion, solely on his signature. The true cost of the financial crisis won’t be known for a decade. The biggest risk now that having pulled back from the brink, we will grow complacent, and let needed reforms of the system slide. How Bernanke unwinds this bubble will define his legacy. Too soon, and we go back into a depression. Too late, and hyperinflation hits. Let’s see how smart Bernanke really is.

Rise in Impaired Assets at Australian Banks Slows in 3Q09

mms It’s all about the dollar, which I have hated all year (click here for my call ). The assured onslaught of federal debt issuance headed our way will be the overriding investment consideration for traders and portfolio managers for the next decade. That will knock the stuffing out of the greenback against every currency except the Zimbabwean dollar, and even that will rally when you get a regime change. There was once an argument that foreigners piled into these currencies to capture a huge yield pickup, but even that advantage is now gone. The soggy buck also explains a lot of what is going on in our stock market, with companies earning most of their from increasingly wealthy foreigners, like those in technology, energy, and commodities. As I write this, I am looking at new one year highs for my favorite picks of the former British crown colony currencies of the Canadian (up 14% YTD), Australian (up 26% YTD), and New Zealand (up 23% YTD) dollars (for my C$report click here ). There bounteous resources, Anglo-Saxon contract law, an almost common language, and vibrant ports make them the safe bet of choice. It’s just a matter of time before the loony hits parity, to be followed by the Aussie dollar, and then the kiwi.

Thursday FX View: Chorus of Dollar Bears Meets Crescendo

rrm It’s all about the dollar, which I have hated all year (click here for my call ). The assured onslaught of federal debt issuance headed our way will be the overriding investment consideration for traders and portfolio managers for the next decade. That will knock the stuffing out of the greenback against every currency except the Zimbabwean dollar, and even that will rally when you get a regime change. There was once an argument that foreigners piled into these currencies to capture a huge yield pickup, but even that advantage is now gone. The soggy buck also explains a lot of what is going on in our stock market, with companies earning most of their from increasingly wealthy foreigners, like those in technology, energy, and commodities. As I write this, I am looking at new one year highs for my favorite picks of the former British crown colony currencies of the Canadian (up 14% YTD), Australian (up 26% YTD), and New Zealand (up 23% YTD) dollars (for my C$report click here ). There bounteous resources, Anglo-Saxon contract law, an almost common language, and vibrant ports make them the safe bet of choice. It’s just a matter of time before the loony hits parity, to be followed by the Aussie dollar, and then the kiwi.

Thursday FX View: Not Enough Global Oomph Spurs Dollar Rally

cnd. The chickens are finally coming home to roost for the dollar, which has gapped since Thursday from $1.40 down to $1.4450 against the euro, and done even worse again the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand currencies. Crude traders tell me that the weak buck is making oil go up, while currency traders inform me that it is strong crude that is causing the dollar collapse. It’s like an Agatha Christie murder mystery where all of the suspects are guilty. If we are on the eve of an economic recovery, many fear that the US will return to its old, evil, high consuming, high importing ways, and that the trade deficit will skyrocket. If is doesn’t, then you can count on burgeoning government borrowing to knock the stuffing out of the greenback. It sounds like a heads I will, tails you lose bet. This is not exactly a new trend. The chart below shows the purchasing power of the dollar since the Revolutionary War, and it has been mostly downhill since 1929. No, I have not been trading the market that long. Better to take your pay in Euros, American double Eagle gold coins, bushels of wheat, or barrels of crude.

Tuesday FX View: Morning After Syndrome

Th dollar has a hangover. The chickens are finally coming home to roost for the dollar, which has gapped since Thursday from $1.40 down to $1.4450 against the euro, and done even worse again the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand currencies. Crude traders tell me that the weak buck is making oil go up, while currency traders inform me that it is strong crude that is causing the dollar collapse. It’s like an Agatha Christie murder mystery where all of the suspects are guilty. If we are on the eve of an economic recovery, many fear that the US will return to its old, evil, high consuming, high importing ways, and that the trade deficit will skyrocket. If is doesn’t, then you can count on burgeoning government borrowing to knock the stuffing out of the greenback. It sounds like a heads I will, tails you lose bet. This is not exactly a new trend. The chart below shows the purchasing power of the dollar since the Revolutionary War, and it has been mostly downhill since 1929. No, I have not been trading the market that long. Better to take your pay in Euros, American double Eagle gold coins, bushels of wheat, or barrels of crude.

Wednesday FX View: Demand for Japanese Yen Surges to Six-Week High

Look out above. ) If anyone is wondering what that foul odor is, it’s the sushi that hit the fan. Even the most obstinate, nay saying perma bulls now concede the head and shoulders is in on the S&P 500. That great barometer of global risk taking, the Euro/yen cross, didn’t just break key support at ¥132.50, it completely melted down to ¥128.00.

Tuesday FX View: Dollar Indecision over Good News and Bad

Snorrr. Here we are, dead unchanged on the dollar against the Euro on the year at $1.40. Since I really didn’t take a view, I don’t deserve a grade. But the collapse of the dollar is a mathematical certainty resulting from current US government reflationary policies in the extreme, and may be the trigger for the world’s next big financial crisis. Expect more action in the second half.

Friday FX View: Dollar Headstrong in Light of Rising Risk Appetite

We agree. The current chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia (MS) is bearish on the economy and sees no chance of a “V” shaped recovery, just a very weak one at best. The “green shoots” are still underground. “The consumer is toast,” he averred, and he expects consumer spending to plummet from a record 72% of GDP to 67% in five years. Since a massive external deficit has to be funded by foreigners, the outlook for the dollar is “down, down, down.” There won’t be a crash, just a gradual descent, as we have seen for the last 38 years. China isn’t going to bail us out. The US has only 4.5% of the global population, but accounts for $10 trillion of consumer spending. China and India together have 40% of the population, but only spend $2 trillion. This disparity is 50:1. Steve was an early BRIC fan, like me, and since China is so overbought short term, India is his first pick. You want to buy countries that have to build infrastructure and a middle class, and China has already done that. India’s recent election of a more pro business government is the trigger. I aggressively pushed India at the beginning of the year (www.madhedgefundtrader...), and it has doubled since then. The humorous thing about all of this is that Steve has been spouting the same bearish line for the US for 15 years. The in-house joke at MS was that he was sent to China because his negative sentiments were scaring the firm’s conservative US institutional investors. Given the performance of the BRIC’s since then, it is Steve having the last laugh.

How to Play the Dollar's Approaching Descent

Buy commodities. First of all, let’s get some facts straight. No one is buying oil here at $72 because they plan to burn it, use it to drive more miles, make asphalt or plastics, or rub it all over their bodies. They are buying Texas tea because they hate the dollar and there is no other surrogate reserve currency. Some of the biggest buyers of crude now are the oil producers, desperate for any appreciating asset they can park their revenues in size. This is why you can now walk across the Caribbean and not get your feet wet, jumping from one storage tanker to the next. The world is choking on surplus crude. Does anyone see anything wrong with this picture? Even perma bull Boone Pickens has a target of only $75. I hope he remembers to sell this time (sorry for the cheap shot Boone). The problem is that when you have so many hedge funds, financial players, and non consumers bunching up in a trade, the turns can be particularly vicious. All it would take is a little more evidence of a double dip economy, or even just an innocently strong dollar. Watch those green shoots with a magnifying glass.

Wednesday FX View: Behind the Garden Wall

This is just the opening round. The prospective US rating cut is cutting the legs out from the US dollar, which is hitting fresh 2009 lows against everything. It turns out that if the world is not going to zero, you don’t need a safe haven like the dollar any more. And safe havens with a zero yield were not that great anyway. The New Zealand dollar has rocketed 30%, and the Euro has gapped through to a new yearly of $1.40. A lower dollar is one of the few certainties of life. The only question is how far, how fast. This further underlines my arguments to buy emerging markets and commodity producing countries.