Mad Hedge Fund Trader

S&P 500 New Highs Expanding... from a Low Base

ooh Fed chairman Ben Bernanke says the recession is “technically” over. This will be great news for the homeless living in the tent city under short finals who I fly over when I land my plane at Buchanan airport. It means “technically” they will eat tonight. It will also be welcome to the 18% of the workforce who are now unemployed in California, the 1.5 million who are losing unemployment benefits in the next three months, and one million college students who ran up and average $30,000 in debt to graduate this year so they could sleep on their parents’ sofa. Traders celebrated the news by running the S&P 500 up to 1,054, a positively nose bleeding 58% above the March 9 low. Apparently, the stock market thinks Obama is the greatest president in history, rising some 40% since the inauguration, compared to a 30% drop during the eight years of Bush rule. That is some report card I wonder what the results will be by 2012 and 2016? The only thing I approve of today is that this love fest took silver to a new high this year of over $17. Wake me up when the party is over, and I’ll drag your drunken carcasses into the car and drive you home. Then I’m going to cash in a couple of my silver dollars and take my significant other out for a Corona and some vegetarian burritos.

A Very Smart Plan for Federal Smart Grid Grants

Here's another option. For those out there still looking for a “smart grid” play, take a look at Quanta Services (PWR). The Houston based company offers design, construction, and maintenance of power infrastructure networks. At a 17 multiple of next year’s earnings, it is not cheap, and the shares have already posted a double since the March 9 low, so the action is definitely there. But when the full force of Obama’s stimulus plan hits, the 30% earnings growth that is the current consensus forecast may look a tad low. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has already announced $10 billion in programs, and “smart grids” are one of the few places in the energy space where the government can spend money and generate an immediate result. Up to 10% of America’s electric power supply is thought to be lost through resistance from decrepit power lines and inefficient distribution. That works out to a lot of tankers from the Middle East or train loads of coal from Appalachia. Never underestimate the power of a buzz word to boost earnings. Buy on the inevitable dip.