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  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    I read the miss and saw the tax amounts and connected the dots. Why was i able to do that? It was thanks in large part to the analysis that SF and CN have shown me needs to be done as it is the only responsible way to be a true investor and not just a gambler.

    I am glad to see that you posted an article to further clarify the tax line item. I should've dug into the full report to find the same information, but i figured knowing the NOLs being booked that there must've been something tax law related as to why the big shift in the tax costs.

    So I, as a cautious long for the stock, am not concerned other than I initiated positions looking for a higher share price come January'16 and will have to wait to see how we rebound from here. What astounds me is that the street constantly expects more out of SIRI and more in large degrees.

    Let's compare what a $0.01 miss actually is:
    Income 2014 / Shares 2014 = $0.02 (or more appropriately $0.0152 rounded up).
    Income 2015 / Shares 2015 = $0.02 (or more appropriately $0.0187 rounded up).

    So what do you get when you compare those numbers? It is a nearly 23% increase, even with the change in the tax expenses. In order to have gotten to a number that could've been rounded up to a $0.03 EPS the income side would've had to have been $33M more in total income.

    Income before taxes was up 43% ending March 2015 compared to 2014. Even if they had to pay extra taxes on the additional $74M they booked in 2015 it wouldn't have been the stomping $62M that they did pay in taxes. Let's say that at a 38% tax rate they would've had to pay an extra $28M in taxes that still leaves $46M in income that was lost in the shift of tax expenses.

    So what happens if you put that $46M back into the income side of the equation? The EPS raises to $0.0269 or simply $0.03 and isn't a "miss". And it is measured as an increase of nearly 76.5% year over year comparison instead of the obfuscated 23%.
    May 6, 2015. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Get Ready For The $4 Crowd [View article]
    headybaldguy: "AT the CC, David Frear, CFO stated that management had bought back 927M shares at a cost of $3.5B."

    Where did you hear that? The numbers i have seen are 739m at a cost of $2.5b. Previous announced numbers for 2013 year end were 520m shares repurchased. In October 2013 they had repurchased 476.5m shares for $1.6b.

    Looks to me like they have been averaging $3.38 per share overall and costs in 2014 couldn't have been much higher as costs in 2013 were at $3.35 avg.

    With prices gaining support and heading for upper 3's, it's going to allow fewer shares repurchased; however, we should be grateful we got the extra year of low priced shares for repurchase.

    Let's say they spend around $1B on share repurchases in 2015 we could see anywhere from 285m shares (@$3.50/share) added to the buyback to 256m shares (@$3.90/share).

    Sign me up for covered calls at $4.50 and i'll be looking for opportunities to open a spread between 3.50 and 4.00 for January. Should allow me to be profitable as long as the price is anywhere from $3.55 to $5 come January next year with peak profit from $3.99 through $4.49.
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM updates guidance [View news story]
    I guess another negative that is not in the guidance but in the numbers reported is that the self-pay additions dropped by ~.07m from 2013 to 2014.

    CN's article from October ("Sirius XM Management Alters View On Subscribers") has some good numbers for tracking self-pay vs net adds for the last couple years. Just replace the numbers in the last column with 1.44m for self-pay and 1.75m for net adds.

    There you can see the rather back and forth the numbers have had for the last few years. Granted the OEM change does have a considerable factor in that back and forth.
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM updates guidance [View news story]
    The only negative in the 2015 guidance is the 1.2m additions. A step backwards of .05m additions from the 2014 guidance is not high confidence in the company's ability to either retain or bring in new subscribers...

    However, it could also be treated as a highly conservative estimate given that SIRI was over by .5m on it's guidance in 2014. Coming in 40% higher than original guidance suggests that SIRI has no clue on what the outside factors are going to do with their subscriber base and additions.

    Even in 2013 the original guidance was for 1.4m and they posted 1.66m additions. At least that was only 19% under-estimated.

    Kind of hard to make projections on where SIRI is going to go in 2015 if we have to try to figure out if their guidance is off by 20% or 40%.
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Closer Look At Fundamentals And Guidance [View article]
    If you don't like his articles, why read them? Also, if you're a non-CN fan, but are a SF fan, know that he too has said he is unlikely to cover Liberty when SIRI becomes a part of it.

    Who could blame CN for not wanted to cover a complex entity that is no longer dictated in performance of any 1 of it's parts? Compared to SIRI where at least theoretically the actions and performance of SIRI were directly responsible for changes in the value of SIRI.
    Jan 10, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    So if you think it is worth $20B today, and it is only going to be worth $27B after the deal, then instead of adding in $10-11B in value through the rest of SIRI, the value is likely to only be $7-8B.

    If you are shareholder of a company and you are told that after you are brought into another company your value is immediately going to lose 25%, why would you sell for anything less than a premium? Any kind of increase of price due to your performance is going to have to first go through a 25% haircut before it gets realized.

    By your reasoning, we should be happy accepting $3.68 because it will highlight a hidden value of $4.60? That's backwards... We should demand $4.60 because after the transaction we're going to be worth $3.68 and every $1 the SIRI price would've appreciated being on our own is going to result in $.75 (proportionally) appreciation when part of Liberty.
    Jan 10, 2014. 07:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Vote 'NO' On Liberty's $3.68 Offer [View article]
    If anyone can confirm the above to be more or less accurate, i would appreciate it. I was extrapolating from DSandman's numbers.

    I wouldn't mind seeing a final ratio that bests .08 but not necessarily needing it to be up to .09 to be happy. Especially if that is perceived as a good deal for Liberty and the share price of LMCA goes back up to $147 (or even 150), that would be a SIRI price of $4.16 ($4.25 @ $150).

    Personally, I think Spencer's position that it could go as high as 44% is a bit more than we're likely to receive. In a market cap expected to be $27B a 5% difference is $1.35B. I don't think Malone will feel that generous towards SIRI public shareholders...

    Picking a conversion ratio of .086 and calling it a 3% increase over the initial offer would mean an additional cost of about $810M compared to the initial deal and would almost guarantee that SIRI public shareholders will get over $4 a share.

    As i commented in of the recent articles, if i were trying to be a reasonable negotiator, this is probably where i'd try to get both sides to line up.
    Jan 9, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Vote 'NO' On Liberty's $3.68 Offer [View article]
    I would like to know what conversion ratio lends to what final % that siri shareholders get in the end of Liberty. SO said that he could see upwards of 44% if they hold LMCC with no voting rights. In the realm of conversion ratios, does anyone know what that would turn out to be?

    If DSandman's numbers are trustworthy, i guess the conversion ratio would need to be somewhere around .092 to reach 44%.

    Some other numbers are exampled (ratio is derived from ownership and DSandman's information):
    Onwership -- Ratio -- LMCA Price -- SIRI Price
    39.5% -- .076 -- 140 -- 3.55
    39.5% -- .076 -- 145 -- 3.67
    40% -- .078 -- 140 -- 3.64
    40% -- .078 -- 145 -- 3.77
    41% -- .081 -- 140 -- 3.78
    41% -- .081 -- 145 -- 3.92
    42% -- .085 -- 140 -- 3.96
    42% -- .085 -- 145 -- 4.11
    43% -- .088 -- 140 -- 4.11
    43% -- .088 -- 145 -- 4.25
    44% -- .092 -- 140 -- 4.29
    44% -- .092 -- 145 -- 4.45
    Jan 9, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    Oh, i figured there was plenty of undertones to the pic of you adding to the fire and fanning the flames. =P
    Jan 9, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    "(Traveling Salesman problems, Transportation and Assignment and Queueing theory, we used to have to load up huge decks of punch cards and sometimes nap next to the computer until it spewed out the answer 8 hours later. Now I put my finger on my cellphone and it "holds" my photo till I want it to vaporize so no evidence is left (love Snapchat)...Truly Buck Rogers. Love it and glad that I am here to see it, use it and hopefully live long enough to see them make as much progress in healthcare and biotechnology!!"

    Syntax error. You have ( with no ).
    Jan 9, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    so let me guess.....
    '[You're] Smarter Than The Market?'

    Time will tell if that is true, but anyone's advice to individuals to sell <b>now</b> is a bit late. Whatever the concerns/excuses about SIRI post exchange or future performance, may be valid and true, but if the final deal is likely to be better than today's pricing, why should someone sell today?
    Jan 9, 2014. 09:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Vote 'NO' On Liberty's $3.68 Offer [View article]
    Do you have a reason for shifting from SIRI shares and only getting LMCC to selling SIRI before conversion and going with LMCA and receiving LMCC as a side benefit?

    Other than voting rights, it sounds as though the LMCA/LMCC shares are supposed to be equivalent. However...

    I think that holding LMCA shares will eventually be the smarter play as i assume that the future dealings with LMCC if/when Liberty decides to spin out SIRI will give a premium to the LMCA shareholders. Is that your thinking as well?
    Jan 9, 2014. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    by "todays" value i am using the share price of LMCA at the initial offering price of LMCA and the expected value of SIRI based upon that offer. Do not call out that 39.5 SIRI shares x 3.77 current SIRI share price is way above LMCA's current price.
    Jan 9, 2014. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    sirfifair6:"My assumption is that the price of THEIR shares and OUR shares should be the same."

    The imbalance in prices between LMCA and SIRI will correct when the final deal is announced. The imbalance (SIRI: +3% / LMCA: -4% compared to the offering prices) currently is the excitement and expectation surrounding SIRI's eventual price.

    As we get closer to a potential transaction date, after the final conversion rate is announced the LMCA and SIRI shares will trade in proportional values. Who would pay more for SIRI or sell SIRI for significantly less than what they would get for it at the exchange date?

    The problem is that LMCA could still be under market pressure depending upon whether the deal is perceived as being beneficial to Liberty or not. If the final deal does not have a collar (an actual floor and actual ceiling on $$ amount) then if the price of LMCA declines going into the transaction then the value of SIRI will decline. If the price of LMCA increases going into the transaction, then the value of SIRI will increase. So while SIRI may go up/down once the final transaction is announced, it will be tracking the value of LMCA or the expected value of LMCA more so than an actual valuation of SIRI.
    Jan 9, 2014. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 'I'm Smarter Than The Market?' [View article]
    SF, short interest comes out tomorrow after close. Unfortunately we have to wait until 1/27 for anything of real value, but if the short interest was increasing through 12/31 that may benefit those continuing to hold.
    Jan 9, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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