Seeking Alpha

Maik Schwäbe

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Maik Schwäbe's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Alphaform AG: Buyer Beware, 3-D Hype Can Be Dangerous [View article]
    I totally agree. I already took a look at the company a year ago. The "old" connection to EOS and physical proximity to printer maker RepRap (both companies literally are based door to door) were interesting, but the abscence of any topline growth even at times that additive manufacturing is on the upswing spells big trouble!
    And the move to get a OTC listing for a struggling "3D" company with a market cap of $15million is very questionable...

    Regards

    Maik
    Feb 13, 2014. 06:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Stands To Benefit From E-Gift Popularity [View article]
    I have no doubt at all that this company will be profitable and growing rapidly for years to come, February 19 will give us some more clues on that.
    Don't forget that you are still dealing with a British small to mid cap that only reports twice a year, so coverage by us analysts should not be expected to be plentiful. Another factor is the AIM listing, which prevents a lot of institutions from adding coverage. LSE uplisting is already announced, so expect that to change.
    Even if their website might seem a little outdated, it still contained everything I needed to know and an email to IR usually takes care of everything deeper than that...
    And for all the people wondering about the volatility: don't look at MONIF but MONI.L in the UK. On a 5 year + chart you will see what you are dealing with and that -20% corrections in two weeks are not uncommon.

    Still my highest conviction long for the coming 2 to 5 years.
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    I totally agree, but hope they will take "making profits" a little more serious than Amazon, though!
    Sep 11, 2013. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Hello Alan, excuse my delayed response.
    You pose a good question here, as it is tough to wrap your head around how unique Monitise's business mode is.
    First of all one has to understand that Monitise is not just an App that enables transfers etc.
    They build the systems after their clients wishes, which is why development and integration take a year to actually produce live revenues.
    Every company that decides to go with Monitise decides what it wants its customers to be able to do on their phones and Monitise builds the infrastructure for those purposes. If the clients wish they can leave the responsibility of running live operations to Monitise.
    This is why at Septembers earnings release, management called in-house IT divisions (that have the capabilities and skills to run an operation like that) their biggest competition.
    Most of Monitise's clients are financial institutions and it should be clear that consumers will be able to make transfers and purchases no matter who's system runs on another platform just as it always was without "mobile".
    So consumers will never have to make the choice for or against Monitise, it is the consumers bank or carrier that decide who should design and run their mobile operations.
    And from that point of view it becomes clear that a provider who is able to integrate couponing, advertisement, payments and banking in the same solution should be first choice and that the size of their network is a decisive factor.

    I hope this helps a little to get a better idea of Monitises's business.

    Best regards

    Maik
    Mar 1, 2014. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Stands To Benefit From E-Gift Popularity [View article]
    Yes, really.

    - First of all, a lot of UK companies trade at such low prices, as they are nominated in PENCE on their domestic exchanges. LLoyds (one of the worlds biggest insurance companies) for example trades at 82 pence, so not far off Monitise's price.
    - MONI.L gets the up-listing to the LSE and complied with all regulations in terms of transparency, filings and reports for YEARS.
    - A relatively small foreign company does not have the pockets to afford a NYSE or NASDAQ listing, which does not necessarily mean it is a shady corporation...
    SIEMENS for example just announced that they will de-list from the NYSE (SI), so very soon the only us tradeable unit will be (OTCQB:SMAWF) listed on the (you guessed it..) OTC. Does that mean Siemens is not investible?
    - Anyways I am convinced that you will see a NYSE or NASDAQ listing within two years.

    And from a fundamental view point:

    - Monitise is a technology leader in a huge and fast growing area that will completely transform everyday commerce and if you want some exposure to that space Big Blue (IBM) is certainly not the stock to pick...
    Didn't so many people just get excited because AAPL announced to try to enter this space?
    - Mobile Payments are not cyclical, so I would argue that this upside remains even if another recession should hit.
    - The only "risk" I see is how efficiently Monitise can monitize (gee, what a pun) their leadership in this space and I am confident they will.
    - The CEO Alistair Lukies is a fix member of British Prime Minister Cameron's trade contingent whenever he is on a trip to meet foreign business and political leaders. He for example gave interviews in Davos for CNBC last week.
    (That is not my main reason to be bullish on the stock; but it doesn't sound like a pump-and-dump pink sheet any more, doesn't it?)

    I don't know a lot of companies with such a technology leadership in such an enormous and emerging space that is so underfollowed/overlooked as MONI.L is.
    So for all those reasons, I am very bullish on 2 to 5 years out from now...

    Regards
    Jan 29, 2014. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    Yes, yahoo finance is a little thin on foreign companies. Try it on the companies investor relations section. And if you can´t find what you need, feel free to contact them; they proved to be very helpful to me!
    Regards
    Dec 1, 2013. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    Thank you for your comment and yes, I am still fully invested. The stock finally has slowed down a little before overheating.

    Two more interesting facts I just found are that VISA Europe exercised their option on 6 million shares.
    And maybe more interesting is the fact that Doug Kass of Seabreeze partners is currently long MONI.L and as it turns out already for quite some time:
    Kass published some comments on Monitise back in March. http://yhoo.it/18MZWsa
    As Monitises shareholder list is up to date and Seabreeze Partners is not mentioned, I assume his position is relatively small.
    Still interesting to know...

    Best Regards
    Oct 2, 2013. 01:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    I am no specialist on Wirecard, but I know that they started out on the hardware side of things; a lot of German stores carry their card-readers. So I would rather put them into the Verifone (PAY) corner, even though they definitely push towards more mobile products lately. The approach to acquiring clients is pretty different to Monitise, too.
    Wirecard tries to reach the merchants directly and build solutions for them, while Monitise seeks to address big institutions which then advertise their solution to their thousands of customers.
    Nevertheless Wirecard could be worth a closer look.
    Sep 11, 2013. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    First of all, excuse my delayed responses as I had two very busy days.
    - The major shareholder-list on monitise.com didn`t change since July, and Omega Advisers is still the biggest with its 9.9% stake. I remember Cooperman talking about Monitise´s potential to build its customer base to 100 million in the next years, so I would be very surprised to see him cut his position within the first year. I think he is in for the long run, just as I am.
    - Cellphone safety will definitely have to go hand in hand with the developments in the m-payment sector, and I expect every device to be equipped with a fingerprint reader over the next two years. Unfortunately the stocks in this sector are too hot right now and kept running away from me.
    - The question of a reverse split already came up after my last article, and I don´t see it happen in the near future (12 months). Management didn´t mention anything and their focus will clearly be the switch out of AIM.
    This will be an issue if they would decide to maybe get listed on Nasdaq, but I guess that in the UK nobody really cares; there are more than just a handful of companies in the FTSE 100 that have share prices in the low 100s of pence, Lloyds Banking for example quotes around 75 pence.
    Sep 11, 2013. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    I have not worked through this one yet, but hope to find some more time on the weekend.
    It again feels bittersweet: A forecast cut that short after a result release is tough to swallow, but having Mastercard taking a stake with Visa already on board for that long is an incredible sign of confidence.
    The strategic direction the company wants to add seems to be aiming at square, which I think is great.
    A purely fee based service is rather obtainable for small merchants while their business so far has been to serve bigger corporations which paid development and integration costs upfront.
    I love the projection of 200 million users by 2018 compared to 28 million right now.
    With average transaction value per user increasing as well, the volume that will run through Monitise´s platform will explode.
    But then again, profitability now is being pushed out to 2016 with revenue growth to "strongly accelerate" afterwards.

    I feel like Monitise will be bought by one of the two payment royals before it ever reaches its full potential.

    Regards
    Mar 28, 2014. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Hi Chuck.

    That is unfortunate, as I was quite satisfied with the responses I got and how quick they were delivered.
    My first contact was to get insights into their client agreements and how heavy they lean on user generated revenues compared to development and integration revenues. I posted the answer in my previous article on the company back in September and I had the response within my expectation of 1-2 days.
    The second time was to get their opinion on the double or up-listing issue which I posted as the first comment in this section. Response time was under 24 hours, so I can't complain at all.

    Maybe you would share some more details about your experience to elaborate?

    Regards.

    Maik
    Mar 24, 2014. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Triple Play For Lat-Am Exposure And A Growing 4.5% Yield [View article]
    The same call on Bancolombia (CIB) on September 30th wasn't too bad at a price of 58$.
    But first of all, full year estimates coming down from $2.86 to $2.79 after $2.21 does not seem like such a huge deal to me.
    And secondly this article takes a long term look, speak for the next two to three years and in that context I don't care too much if they should fall 10 to 20% in the next six months. If so it should rather be a chance to initiate or add a position.
    Regards
    Mar 6, 2014. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Triple Play For Lat-Am Exposure And A Growing 4.5% Yield [View article]
    Thank you, always nice to hear that.
    Mar 6, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Pozitron is definitely a big deal as one can read off their client list. I think Monitise did not overpay either, so I have a good feeling with this one.
    Regards
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Yes, I would bet on IBM to be an acquirer; it would be easy to integrate and would offer some dynamic growth that big blue is looking for.
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
46 Comments
12 Likes