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Maik Schwäbe  

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  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    I have not worked through this one yet, but hope to find some more time on the weekend.
    It again feels bittersweet: A forecast cut that short after a result release is tough to swallow, but having Mastercard taking a stake with Visa already on board for that long is an incredible sign of confidence.
    The strategic direction the company wants to add seems to be aiming at square, which I think is great.
    A purely fee based service is rather obtainable for small merchants while their business so far has been to serve bigger corporations which paid development and integration costs upfront.
    I love the projection of 200 million users by 2018 compared to 28 million right now.
    With average transaction value per user increasing as well, the volume that will run through Monitise´s platform will explode.
    But then again, profitability now is being pushed out to 2016 with revenue growth to "strongly accelerate" afterwards.

    I feel like Monitise will be bought by one of the two payment royals before it ever reaches its full potential.

    Mar 28, 2014. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Hi Chuck.

    That is unfortunate, as I was quite satisfied with the responses I got and how quick they were delivered.
    My first contact was to get insights into their client agreements and how heavy they lean on user generated revenues compared to development and integration revenues. I posted the answer in my previous article on the company back in September and I had the response within my expectation of 1-2 days.
    The second time was to get their opinion on the double or up-listing issue which I posted as the first comment in this section. Response time was under 24 hours, so I can't complain at all.

    Maybe you would share some more details about your experience to elaborate?


    Mar 24, 2014. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Triple Play For Lat-Am Exposure And A Growing 4.5% Yield [View article]
    The same call on Bancolombia (CIB) on September 30th wasn't too bad at a price of 58$.
    But first of all, full year estimates coming down from $2.86 to $2.79 after $2.21 does not seem like such a huge deal to me.
    And secondly this article takes a long term look, speak for the next two to three years and in that context I don't care too much if they should fall 10 to 20% in the next six months. If so it should rather be a chance to initiate or add a position.
    Mar 6, 2014. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Triple Play For Lat-Am Exposure And A Growing 4.5% Yield [View article]
    Thank you, always nice to hear that.
    Mar 6, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Pozitron is definitely a big deal as one can read off their client list. I think Monitise did not overpay either, so I have a good feeling with this one.
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Yes, I would bet on IBM to be an acquirer; it would be easy to integrate and would offer some dynamic growth that big blue is looking for.
    Mar 3, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Hello Alan, excuse my delayed response.
    You pose a good question here, as it is tough to wrap your head around how unique Monitise's business mode is.
    First of all one has to understand that Monitise is not just an App that enables transfers etc.
    They build the systems after their clients wishes, which is why development and integration take a year to actually produce live revenues.
    Every company that decides to go with Monitise decides what it wants its customers to be able to do on their phones and Monitise builds the infrastructure for those purposes. If the clients wish they can leave the responsibility of running live operations to Monitise.
    This is why at Septembers earnings release, management called in-house IT divisions (that have the capabilities and skills to run an operation like that) their biggest competition.
    Most of Monitise's clients are financial institutions and it should be clear that consumers will be able to make transfers and purchases no matter who's system runs on another platform just as it always was without "mobile".
    So consumers will never have to make the choice for or against Monitise, it is the consumers bank or carrier that decide who should design and run their mobile operations.
    And from that point of view it becomes clear that a provider who is able to integrate couponing, advertisement, payments and banking in the same solution should be first choice and that the size of their network is a decisive factor.

    I hope this helps a little to get a better idea of Monitises's business.

    Best regards

    Mar 1, 2014. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    As far as I know, those are the three firms covering Monitise.
    It should certainly be the LSE listing that should automatically draw more institutional attention.
    The AIM consists of a lot of tiny and risky stocks; apparently the annual bankruptcy rate of listed companies is around 2%. Even though Monitise is one of the biggest of all, it is very likely that a lot of research firms immediately disregard any AIM listed stock.
    If profitability would be an issue, AMZN would still be undiscovered and 5 $ a share ;-)

    Feb 26, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    I bought in London, too. Liquid and it makes no difference in performance. The brokers transaction costs should be considered though.
    Feb 26, 2014. 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Yes, MONIF will continue on the OTC; no change there.
    Feb 26, 2014. 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    That is a tricky thing to estimate with technology, especially in the mobile area, evolving so fast.
    I think it will come down to how Big Tech will act in the space. Google, Ebay, maybe Apple could certainly disrupt the whole game, but they don't really seem to be moving along the same path as Monitizse.
    With already $70 billion per year running over Monitise's platform (around 100 bln by summer), a bag of very prominent and sophisticated partners and some huge deals coming online throughout the next year, Monitise could be hard to catch.
    So over at least two to three years, I only see regular market risk for the stock: if the whole market turns over and skids 20 to 30% then Monitise could well be back in it's 30 to 40 pence range.

    But of course I could be totally wrong ;-)
    Feb 26, 2014. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    I agree, seen from a global point of view the possibilities are mind blowing.
    Originally this article included my opinion on the FB/WA deal and its significance for Monitise, but I decided against it.
    The reason is that I can not wrap my head around the $19 billion price tag. Viber (200 million users in May 2013) got acquired two days earlier for $900 million and I don´t see why FB needed to overpay by such a margin for a single messaging app.
    Growing consumer engagement via mobile is certainly one tailwind for Monitise but I refuse to measure anything off that benchmark Zuck just set.

    Best Regards
    Feb 26, 2014. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Investor Relations responded within 24 hours:

    With transaction volume and the number of registered customers growing at such a pace; how can H1 2014 user generated revenues be lower than in H2 of 2013?
    You made clear that integration revenues can be volatile, depending on single large contracts; but user generated revenues are regarded as the main driver of future profitability. So it is very disturbing to see the related numbers (registered customers and processed volume) grow by such a big margin and user generated revenues actually decline over the same perod. What caused this discrepancy?

    User generated revenue includes licence revenue which can be lumpy – as we called out in the results presentation, licence revenue fell sequentially, which is why overall user generated revenue fell. Underlying subscription revenue continued to grow. It can be difficult for analysts to model this line which is why we explicitly guide on revenue growth, and continue to expect approximately 50% growth for the full year to June 2014, which implies a sequential growth in overall revenue. We are very focused on growing our end-user numbers which in turn will drive user-generated revenue, and it is worth recalling that two major deals we signed last year with Telefonica (300m+ end users) and Visa Europe (475m cards in issue) are still in build phase and have yet to see user-generated revenue.

    A listing on the London main market has been talked about on the release of full year results last september and I think it is fair to say that this move has been anticipated by fellow investors for a while now.
    To hear that “ a move is continued to be considered” sounds like a step back, as the investor community would have liked to hear a fix schedule.
    Why the delay or second thoughts?

    We can’t confirm a move to the LSE until the formal decision has been made by the board, but it is still our intention and exact timing will depend on market conditions.

    Plus, have there yet been discussions about a dual listing on one of the major US exchanges?

    We have considered this of course. Our US shareholders (approximately 40% of total) are happy with use moving to the LSE main list. The LSE is a fully regulated exchange and institutional US investors see little difference to investing there as on a US exchange. A move to LSE is considerably cheaper for a UK company already listed on its AIM market as we are, and consumes far less management time than a dual listing. It is possible that in the future we would consider a dual listing. US private investors would also benefit from a move to the main LSE market as the current AIM exchange is only served by larger US brokers at this time.
    Feb 25, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    Did anybody draw a comparison to Viber which coincidentally got bought out for 900 million just two days before this FB/WA madness?
    They counted more than 200 million users by MAY 2013! Not too far off WA's numbers, even if the functionality might be a little inferior to WA.
    I still can't figure out why FB paid ten times as much per user than at Viber's deal.
    4 billion users to pay 1$ a month?
    With all due respect, that is delusional.
    There will probably be a couple of dozen free Apps that do exactly what WA does until 2020!
    Feb 24, 2014. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    No, I don't see how Facebook and WhatsApp have an influence on Monitise. Except of course if FB would buy Moni for $5billion... :-D
    This drop is definitely related to the earnings release.
    I am actually surprised that the stock found a "bottom" that quickly; wednesday morning in London was pretty ugly...
    Still bullish, but I they will probably not run away from this level in the next weeks....
    Feb 20, 2014. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment