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Malcolm Shaw

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  • A New Crown Jewel? [View instapost]
    I would expect the company to report annual 2013 results soon. I don't expect anything particularly exciting in there. We should get an update on the year-end cash balance and a reserves update that will probably include the reserves write-down at El Valle that the company has previously mentioned (I believe it was in the ~$10mm range). Most importantly, I hope we see some kind of operational update. The market is waiting to see the start of TdF drilling and testing at La Hoyada. 2014 should be an active year with both production and reserves growth expected.
    Apr 17 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UNO - Looking For Uranium Away From The Crowd [View instapost]
    Tough call, I've thought about that a lot. There are so many variables that go into a successful story that the study would be difficult to do. I think a lot of it would simply depend on timing with respect not only to individual speculations, but their respective sectors as well.
    Apr 15 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UNO - Looking For Uranium Away From The Crowd [View instapost]
    Thanks for the comment Kiernan...

    1. I don't unfortunately. They reported the results as a multiple of background, which is a relative measurement. They are doing a lake survey right now, which I would expect will be more comparable to what the market has become accustomed to recently from PLS.

    2. Yes, that cash is indeed slated for drilling at the NW Manitoba project. Corporate G&A is very low as this is not a big organization.

    3. Hard to say regarding the size needed for commerciality. I do know that the company is not "thinking small"... these are first-order targets so they are elephant hunting, so to speak. I would think the commerciality threshold here would be in the 100 mmlb range, but don't hold me to that, as a lot of that depends on just what, if anything, is found!

    Best of luck.
    Apr 14 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    Well thought out and sound comments. There is a lot of data out there which you might enjoy reviewing, but I hear you on many fronts. I've added some links below from which little bits of data can be gleaned. In terms of access, it's my understanding that some of the usual logistical challenges are somewhat mitigated by the fact that the area has historical oil production, is generally flat lying to rolling topography, with a pipeline running parallel to the river (I have been told that same river is currently being dredged with the goal of making it a heavier transportation corridor). Lots of work to do, but to get that exposure for free? I'll take it! Cheers and thanks for your comments. Here are some links if you're interested, some of which your own work may have already turned up.


    http://bit.ly/R7zDIK

    http://bit.ly/R7zBk2

    http://bit.ly/R7zDIO

    http://bit.ly/R7zBk6

    http://bit.ly/R7zDZ2

    http://bit.ly/R7zBkb
    Apr 10 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • From Frac Sands To Oil Sands: Athabasca Minerals Has It Covered [View article]
    Pretty much a non-event for me. 2013 results were skewed by costs associated with the opening of corporate pits and the incredibly wet weather that Alberta saw last summer. Keep in mind that historically, ABM was just a "toll" business on the Susan Lake pit. I will be watching for corporate pit sales to hit their stride in 2014, as well as the receipt of the frac sand permits. The company is moving ahead with discussions regarding its land at the end of Ft Mac rail line for a loading facility, is working on a 43-101 compliant resource that will give investors a "formal" idea of how much frac sand there is, and will continue to drive towards final permits. Given that there are 600,000 tons of gravel in inventory ready for sale (that's part of why you're seeing high costs... the cost to produce that inventory was incurred, but the sales revenue won't hit the balance sheet until it is sold), and some of the wording in the recent news release regarding current discussions for sale of that gravel, I like the outlook for this year.
    Apr 1 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeura Update: Another Quarter Of Production Growth [View instapost]
    Unfortunately I am only generally familiar with Petromanas and can't provide any useful insight on it. Sorry!
    Mar 27 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeura Update: Another Quarter Of Production Growth [View instapost]
    Makes a lot of sense, though I can't confirm the accuracy of the conclusion there. The scale of the opportunity is significant, so if VLE can preserve the license by drilling a shallow well, I would consider that to be a positive.
    Mar 12 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    You've nailed it. Your thoughts are right in line with what I'm thinking on this. Most people have never heard of the La Luna, Rosablanco, or Tablazo, but given the thickness and richness of those intervals, I think it's just a matter of time until awareness increases and the market starts seeing regulations are put in place that are "North American" in style. As you point out, the heavy oil leverage is huge as well.

    There has been a big change in the oil industry in the last decade or so. The source rocks that were "un-tappable" in days past are now a huge resource available for development. Companies are literally going "right to the source" to capture oil reserves.
    Mar 12 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    I think Mexico may take a couple of years... In the meantime here is an article that highlights pending activity in the La Luna shale play. I believe I am early on recognizing the potential here. We'll see. Here's the link: http://bit.ly/N6rjGh
    Mar 12 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    I hear you. The resource potential is just massive. The EIA has a document out that pegs the recoverable potential of the La Luna shale-oil play at close to 5 Billion barrels and CNE is second only to Ecopetrol in terms of being the largest acreage holder in the play. There is expected be a lot more activity in the La Luna play this year and I suspect that the market will take notice at some point. For me, getting free exposure to an oil-shale play of this magnitude is too attractive to pass up. The in-place and potential recoverable numbers net to CNE are quoted in their corporate presentation. They are not small numbers. Having a 590 bopd test from the first well, is more than a little encouraging to me. I expect patience to pay here, all else in the market being equal. In the meantime, attitudes are changing a little as more companies (and investors) go abroad in search of material resources. Here's a recent Reuters article that touches on attitudes a little. http://reut.rs/1dJjSPD
    Mar 10 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    That's an interesting comment. I've been investing in Colombia for over a decade, so I'm quite comfortable with it, but you may have a point. Given the properties of the shale, it may just be a matter of time before the market keys in on it. I suppose I've never been shy about showing up early...
    Mar 10 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    For those interested in another angle on CNE, Caiman Valores has published one this weekend as well. He goes into more detail that I do on some aspects of the business and does a good job of it: http://bit.ly/1iqccG8
    Mar 9 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    Uribe, and now Santos, have really cleaned up Colombia over the last decade or so. The security risks have diminished consistently over the last decade or so and the political landscape is friendly from an investment standpoint. This is reflected in the production growth that Colombia has enjoyed over the same time period. While country risk is a factor in any foreign jurisdiction, Colombia ranks low on my country risk spectrum.
    Mar 8 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    By all means. I missed yours! I'll have a look now. Thanks!
    Mar 7 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Jewel In The Crown? Hoyada Exploration Well Finds Vaca Muerta Oil [View article]
    I'm not sure that would completely fall on Chevron's shoulders. Exxon, Shell, Total, Wintershall, YPF, and now Pluspetrol are all in the mix. As with any emerging resource play, initial costs start high and come down as economies of scale and technical learnings kick in. Interestingly for Crown Point, if the fractured volcanics produce at economic rates, the well costs would/could be substantially lower than their horizontal counterparts. One of the key findings from the La Hoyada well is that the Vaca Muerta oil maturity window appears to extend beyond the initially modelled ~90,000 acre area. The natural fractures could be a real bonus. As far as I can see, CWV is the most direct and lowest cost way to get exposure to the Vaca Muerta right now. Depending on how you want to value the Tierra del Fuego production and assets, I believe the Vaca Muerta "option cost" is still quite modest, or even free, depending on your view of the producing assets in TdF.
    Feb 13 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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