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Manju Sharma

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  • Under Armour: An Out Of Control Valuation [View article]
    $UA price of $112 is justified by $19 from forward earnings, $28 short term forecasts and a whopping $65 from long-term forecasts.
    Feb 25 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Boeing Undervalued At $130? [View article]
    Please see this table 2 (that shows 1.61% growth rate for stock price of $127)
    Addition to table 2:
    BA Market Price $127.00
    SI Pro Analysts long term growth rate 10.4%
    SI Pro Cost of Capital r 10.00%
    Growth rate g 1.61%
    This is lower than long-term GDP and/or industry growth rate.
    Feb 19 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Keep Putting Your Money On Boeing [View article]
    "Based on the strengthening global industry and a focused company strategy I believe that Boeing is a long term buy. The recent dip in price is expected to end very soon."

    Any thoughts on when is very soon? What if all the good news is priced already in the stock and emerging markets weaken and they postpone new orders /and/or delay payments? Thanks
    Feb 14 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Challenging S&P 500 At 1820 [View article]
    Trying to keep it simple as Prof. Penman does: Fwd earnings is an estimate, BV is fairly recent (reliable, hopefully, unless there is lot of bad debt that still needs to be written down etc..), S&P500 index value is what is observed currently, equity return 9% again is an assumption (can debate endlessly on this), so solve for g (long run growth rate). Tests well using values from past.
    Feb 13 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Challenging S&P 500 At 1820 [View article]
    Decrease in margins would be reflected in Fwd earnings # that would go down too and hence the fair value valuation as per this RE model.

    2007: S&P500 at 1527, BV 530, implied growth rate was 6.46% (higher than GDP growth by 2% at least). Overvalued or too optimistic
    2011: S&P500 at 1136, BV 593, implied growth rate was 1.52% (a lot lower than GDP growth rate of 3.5%). Undervalued or too pessimistic
    Feb 13 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Looks Like A Short [View article]
    Quesiton to Mr. Asraf: Time stamp of article is at 9.30am. Wondering if anybody else had this info other than you and Seeking Alpha editors. At 9.36am I see a block trade trade of 200 put options for $1.20 strike $28, that increased in value to $2.15 in just 25 minutes. Great trade! Wondering who else had this info or was it public at 9.30am exact? any thoughts, please add any comments.
    Feb 5 08:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Looks Like A Short [View article]
    Good article. According one leading momentum based newspaper for investors - fundamentals are great , breakout at 25.60 or so. stock ramped up all the way to 36 and started coming down due to valuation. all these are momentum trades and nothing else. lot of froth is bursting , healthy correction is needed.
    Feb 5 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LiveDeal: 50% Downside Possible In This Promoted Stock [View article]
    Thanks for a very informative write-up.
    Few days ago, TD Ameritrade CEO was on IBD front page (Investors Business Daily) talking about how retail investors are back. Market in general needs to weed out such stocks and price discovery can take months. Stocks such as LIVE and numerous others are very volatile and dangerous for individual investors, more so, it is gaps up or down. Without traded options this is suitable only for a day-trade, no overnight positions.
    Jan 28 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tile Shop: Like Crazy Eddie's, But With An Undisclosed Related Party And A Chinese Twist [View article]
    At least 1000 strike 20.0 puts were traded in the first 10 minutes of the trade today (11/14/2013). News about this article on seeking alpha was out by then? I suppose. Open around $0.35, in 1.5 hrs it traded at $4.2, peak appears to be $7.0.
    Nov 14 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline And NYC & Company: Ready To Create Wonders This Holiday Season [View article]
    Very informative write-up. What is the source for your comment:
    " Healthy earnings will be reported by Nov. 7, 2013." or just saying that it will be a great quarter?

    "This is expected to increase the company's share price as an upside potential has been predicted. Therefore, I recommend buying this stock."
    You are connecting the dots from strategy, consolidation in the industry and then jump to a conclusion right away. A big leap of faith!
    Nov 7 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nutrisystem Works [View article]
    IMHO, all the good news is reflected in the stock price. My analysis, shows that the current market price of around $20.20 shows a implied growth rate of 6.8%. I used a generous required return of 10% and took 2 yrs analysts forecast into account. This stock is mis-priced and value investors or anybody buying for longer term might be in for a rough ride.Note the sell rating issued today by a sell-side equity shop of a target price or around $18 or so.
    Nov 5 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illegal Products Could Spell Big Trouble At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    June 21, 2013: As usual sell side analysts will come defend the stock after the huge drop in LL this morning. Hearing Piper defending LL; believes co has stringent quality control, reiterates $97 tgt. Wonder what is the basis for statement? Independent lab tests. Shorts made money and longs got hit.
    Jun 21 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illegal Products Could Spell Big Trouble At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    Timing of this article shows a great coincidence with market weakness. Coinciding with market meltdown yesterday (June 20, 2013), long stock holders will hit the exit. A leading newspaper heaped praise on this stock with great fundamentals and was in its buy list also. I am sure many people lost their shirt. Sold covered calls to reduce my breakeven (long stock), but should have got some puts too.
    Jun 21 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife CEO Says U.S. 'Will Be Better When Bill Ackman Is Gone' [View article]
    Even before CNBC's news yesterday (12/19/2012). There was heavy put activity. Look at both puts and stock volume on 12/17 and 12/19. The news about this short position was known by the smart money before CNBC made it public. So who traded? Journalists or people with access to privileged information.
    Example: 12/19/2012, strike 40.0 puts (before news came out). 600+ puts traded at $0.55.It appears that it was sold later in the afternoon in various chunks for $3.0 and $4.5.
    Dec 20 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Tech Pharmacal Set To Drop By 60% On Earnings And Fraud Investigations [View article]
    It is not a coincidence and that is the reason why I highlighted in the first place.
    Nov 30 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment