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Manjunath Sharma, CFA

 
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  • Potbelly: Sell-Off Is Warranted On Lack Of Growth And Earnings [View article]
    From Yahoo Finance consensus analyst long-term growth rate is 24% that is obviously invalid. Valuation is $19.4 (out of which only $6 is for next 5 yrs). If we cut the long-term growth rate to 12%, valuation is $6.54 ($3 short term, $2 next 5 yrs and $1 long-term). I would not even think about this stock until price drops to $5 or less.
    Jul 10 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Ambarella In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Valuation of AMBA and Price at which AMBA is trading are two different things. This is a highly volatile stock that has no place in my retirement portfolio. IMHO, AMBA touched $22 a few months ago and was a good buy at that level, perhaps not at these price levels ($31 or so).
    Jul 8 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    Valuation according to my model: if I set the growth rate to 10% (same of cost of capital), equity is worth $18.33 per share. I will have to do more work and understand your SSS and growth rates and how you arrived at your valuation. To me $12 appears way too low.

    Question: Terminal value is $740 / $1051 ~ 70%. So 70% of value that you calculate is after 10 yrs correct?
    DCF may not be the right way to value this company. I agree partially with the previous comment (19384011).
    Jul 3 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: A Solid Second Half Play [View article]
    Excellent margin of safety if I can buy BA at $118 or below.
    Jun 30 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Is Falling - Is It A 'Buy' Now, Or A 'Sell'? [View article]
    "Here is the Inventory Turnover rate for Coach and some comparables (including Michael Kors):"

    Did I miss it or you missed it? I see chart with debt/assets, but not inventory turns.
    Jun 25 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: The Wrong Kind Of Arbitrage [View article]
    Thanks for a good informative write-up. I see a short term value of $31, next 5 yrs value of $7 and another $17 for future (giving a total of $54). Even if we forget $17 of future value (with 12% growth rate and cost of capital of 10%), value is around $38. I will pass, unless I can buy this stock at $31 or below that gives a good margin of safety.
    Jun 23 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is When The Bear Growls [View article]
    Did not see any objective assessment of S&P earnings, or PE ratios or market cost of capital. Range of S&P undervaluation, fair valuation or overvaluation is not addressed either. As one comment says "correlation is not causation"
    Jun 20 05:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson Grows Amidst Regulations [View article]
    A day or few hrs before earnings report such articles appear, not surprising. see SWHC after hrs (6/19/2014), down 11% due to reduced guidance.
    Jun 19 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gun Production: As American As Apple Pie [View article]
    great observation. Inventory levels indicate as such. after hrs SWHC is down 11% due to reduce guidance. this stock showed up in Joel Greenblatt's magic screen (as did COH). sold it before earnings.
    Jun 19 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach - No Room For Strategic Failure [View article]
    IMHO, I will not touch this stock (long) at $30 also. Capitalized value is $30 and another $5 from future (my valuation is $30 to $35). What if they liquidate the inventory with a huge sale and its drops the gross margin and it stays that way? It will become just another retailer.
    Jun 19 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach - No Room For Strategic Failure [View article]
    Nitin ji
    Your valuation sounds right. COH is a value trap. My fair value is $30 to $35. I did buy the stock (got fooled by Magic Screen output). I wish I had exited few days ago.

    “You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.”

    I should have followed Warren Buffett's advice and not played this stock. Anyway lesson learned.
    Jun 19 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Acquisition Accounting Shenanigans Dramatically Inflate Profitability - Prescience Point Initiates At Strong Sell [View article]
    "All the little guy needs to do is stick to some simple facts and not follow the herd" - a great comment by roojoo, this is what I do. Not get into hype and follow hot stocks. See DXPE recently. Serial M&A company. Organic growth 0%. Acquired company growth slower than expected, stock dropped like a rock. more to come next quarter. stay away.
    Checkout GOGO -pumped by day traders and IBD etc. $35 to $12.

    A wise man told that "price is what you pay, value is what you get"
    Jun 17 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Acquisition Accounting Shenanigans Dramatically Inflate Profitability - Prescience Point Initiates At Strong Sell [View article]
    Yahoo Finance shows that Berkshire Hathaway, Inc is a major shareholder. Who is doing due diligence on such companies? Forbes has had a write-up on this company in April 2014 highlighting CBI's accounting shenanigans (Voyant Advisors -Matt Van Winkle). Anyway that these two companies are related? (Prescience Point and Voyant Advisors?). GAAP accounting is supposed to help investors, but there is so much management discretion that they can do anything they want. Why are the rules of GAAP accounting so flexible?

    It takes another "GAAP accounting" expert to expose the fraud of another "GAAP accounting" expert (in this case the company and its accounting shenanigans department). Where is the auditor in all this ?
    Jun 17 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: A Long-Term Investment Opportunity In A Good-Yielding Stock [View article]
    Thanks for great info. I am long COH (sold calls and bought puts to limit downside). But this company has problems that needs to be addressed. My valuation is $30 to $35. PEG is high, and forward PE is higher is than current PE (IMHO, value investors don't buy this stock just based on these two metrics). Nobody buys a retailer when SSS are decreasing. It is a value trap (and I am trapped too, hence option strategies to limit my downside), I realized this after going long!
    Jun 12 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Inc.: A Premium Brand At A Discount Price [View article]
    COH's problem is the high inventory that is getting stale. It needs to address that first. Then they can think of growing sales organically (positively) and improving SSS. In the short-run stock could be depressed or might even touch $30 (I do not know). but if management takes action to improve sagging sales, then it will help. Most the retailers in this fashion (fad) industry lose momentum and it is hard to get back. "It hardly matter to me if I am correct" doesn't mean I did not do my homework to arrive at these numbers. When there is so much uncertainty it is prudent to allocate risk capital elsewhere where is some sense of positive margin of safety is what I trying to convey. good luck
    Jun 10 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
47 Comments
30 Likes