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Manjunath Sharma, CFA  

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  • U.S. Silica Q2 Earnings Review; It's The (Implied) Guidance, Stupid [View article]
    Thanks for good info Sarfaraz ji. Too risky to go long and hope for a recovery. See this.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ceramic Proppant Is Going To Zero [View article]
    Is the author deliberately leaving out -company debt, company's ability to change business model, equity valuation range etc. ? the company could change its business model, obviously all C-suite execs know the trend for at least 9 months now.
    Jul 29, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Silica beats by $0.01, misses on revenue [View news story]
    volumes are not increasing.

    " Overall tons sold totaled 2.3 million, down 13% compared with 2.6 million tons sold in the second quarter of 2014 and a decrease of 15% sequentially from the first quarter of 2015. Contribution margin for the quarter was $32.8 million, down 56% compared with $74.7 million in the same period of the prior year and a decrease of 52% sequentially from the first quarter of 2015. "
    Jul 29, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating Cash Flow Neutrality Level For Bonanza Creek Energy [View article]
    A question. So, to get cash flow close to zero (or $344,250 or 344K), oil needs to trade at $69? This number for cash flow is obtained using some excel function (goal seek) and solving for oil price?
    Thanks in advance !
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Wait For A Shift In Momentum [View article]
    I bought at $46 and I am holding it simply due to low valuation. The only way I can value this stock at $38 or $39 (current market price of equity) is to assume that market knows something that I do not know or understand. It appears that market is pricing a scenario in which 2017 earnings will be lot lower than 2016 earnings. (month of year fiscal yr is not December for KORS). Let's see. Cannot time every buy or sell.
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Everyone Is Missing About IBM [View article]
    It is money parked (invested) that can become useless tinsel -if equity price declines more than dividend yield dollars earned. Depends on entry point.
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Everyone Is Missing About IBM [View article]
    Barron's had an interesting article "A Cautious Case for IBM". Based on market price o IBM, market is expecting next year's earnings to be less than $15.88. EPS rates are too optimistic. Even if IBM reinvent's the business model (some parts of IBM), they may need to invest, take charges, restructure -these things will put a dent into short term earnings. I can put my money to better use, rather than lock up my money here in IBM that could be parked like useless tinsel for years.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek: A Survivor Of The Oil Price Downturn [View article]
    Energy Value, thanks for your comments and research on this name, great many details. IMHO, this is not a "value" stock.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific beats by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I will potentially buy UNP, if stock crosses $87 or below (based on my valuation).
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonanza Creek: A Survivor Of The Oil Price Downturn [View article]
    As I wrote before, the risk for individual investors is too high to go long in BCEI. Downward sprial, falling revenues, pay the suppliers, high debt - too many risks.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why The Smart Money Is Short [View article]
    TSLA can be valued and see Prof Ashwath Damodaran's website for valuation details. Of course all wall stress analysts have valued TSLA using PE ratio multiples and DCF, FCFE methods. In my opinion, TSLA is over-valued. But I am not shorting it with so much bullish sentiment. With 25% growth forever, 2017 earnings of $6.08 and 9% cost of equity capital, TSLA can be valued at $288. But these are optimistic projections. Lots of other stocks to short (oil stocks), so stepping aside and not trading TSLA.
    Jul 21, 2015. 03:38 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy drops to 52-week lows after scrapping dividend [View news story]
    A famous equity research company still has a target of $27 (long-term). Something about better debt/EBITDA due to this dividend cut. Go figure the logic...
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Helix Energy Solutions Group misses by $0.18, misses on revenue [View news story]
    According to company presentation (HLX) 2015 EPS is now projected at $0.24, compared to $1.85 a year ago. Trailing PE is 6.26 and forward PE is 11.4 according to Yahoo finance. But if one uses market price of $10 and 2015 EPS of $0.24 , PE gets to a high number.
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Hates Oasis Petroleum, But Its Attractive For Investors And Speculators [View article]
    It is not the total debt, it is cash and liquidity crunch, stemming from various events, that hits the company first. Last year's interest expense was $158 million. And first quarter's expense was around $38 million. See May 2015 company presentation - cash is $10 million, current elected commitments is $1524 ($1.5 billion). Not sure what this means (yet to research). I am not short or long. I covered my short in BCEI. Was researching this name to short.
    Jul 20, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Hates Oasis Petroleum, But Its Attractive For Investors And Speculators [View article]
    I think this stock is speculative at this point with Oil at $50 or so (July 2015). OAS is headed to $7 or less (IMO). According to one analyst , Leverage is a problem with oil at $55 or below. Only 5% 2016 oil volumes are hedged.
    Jul 20, 2015. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
76 Comments
61 Likes