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Manoj Madhavan  

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  • Micron And The Game Of Memory [View article]
    Thank you for another excellent article Jaret! It is not only very well researched and very well written but also serves as a guide/road map to Micron, Samsung and Hynix executives to behave as "rational" actors. This may or may not have part of your rationale for penning this piece. But, if I were an executive in an MIPO firm, I would be certainly reading articles penned by writers like you who bring a lot of good insight and analysis (backed up by an awesome track record) that sometimes appears to be missing among analysts on Wall Street.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:09 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    aampus - I love your optimism and I hope (fervently) you are right. I am intensely long MNKD and have shares, LEAPS and near term calls. You may find this difficult to believe, but the author (US Investor) has an even bigger position in MNKD than I do. I know this because he is a good friend of mine. He is long MNKD and has been investing/invested in MNKD for many years now.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    GreenGrowthGeek - you captured the essence of the article!! What people do not realize is that the stock could be $45 eight years from now. That translates into $10.47 in TODAY'S dollars because US Investor is using a discount rate of 20%.

    Haters can hate. I think this is a very good article. Thanks US Investor!
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:12 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling Ebix... And Aruba Networks [View article]
    Robin confirmed the London PPL win on the conference call. While the terms (size, revenue, duration) are not known at this point, I believe it is going to be a transformative deal for EBIX. A big name like Accenture won the bid to PICK the winner of the tender! And the process took months. These two data points indicate that the deal is "transformative". Robin also gave $275M in annual revenue as a "target". Yes - he did say it was not "guidance" but what they aspire to. I think, that once the London PPL deal is underway, they will exceed the $275M. Also, now that the major legal and IRS hurdles have been overcome, the margins will go back to the 37% to 41% range. And the buybacks will reduce share count - we could see it drop all the way to 35M shares.

    I also expect more acquisitions, deal wins and organic growth. For a GROWING, HIGH MARGIN tech company like EBIX with a market cap under $5B, a 20 PE is not absurd.

    You can play with the numbers (up or down), but if EBIX is at a run-rate of $0.75 per share by 4Q2016 ($3 EPS), then $60 per share is not out the question. Can EBIX drop to $25 before it goes to $60? Sure. Who cares? Heck, even if it takes 5 years to get there, that is 15% annualized!! I would not sell unless it was an IRA account and I am an expert at market timing (which I am not)
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Afrezza Destined To Be One Of The Top Ten Medications Of All Time? [View instapost]
    Thanks. I follow afrezzauser on Twitter. It so happens that we live in the same metro area and I was happy to meet him and have lunch with him and another friend. He showed us the product, used it before his lunch and we had a very good conversation. I came away feeling even more bullish about my investment and also felt very encouraged about this new treatment that has the potential to improve the lives of many diabetics worldwide.
    Mar 10, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TowerJazz Customers Find Value In Outsourcing [View article]
    Jaret - always love reading your articles. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight!!

    I had to do some math to arrive at the $312 million foundry business that Fairchild may outsource. Not complicated math ( :-) ) but I thought I would post it as a comment for the other readers. You arrive at that number (312) because 40% gross margin means 60% to foundries. The $1430 million revenues will grow to $1487 in 2015 using the 4% organic growth number you have used in your article. And Fairchild is going to 35% external fabrication.

    1487 times 0.60 times 0.35 or $312 million.
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Insight Into MannKind's Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Yes - I agree with the other posters who said that any valuation is conjecture at this point. Without any meaningful Afrezza sales, how can one possibly assign "reasonable" P/E or P/S ratios? If you think Afrezza will become a blockbuster drug, then MNKD is undervalued. If you think that Afrezza will be a mediocre success or a failure, then MNKD is over valued. I believe that over time, Afrezza has the potential to become a blockbuster drug. I am therefore in he long camp and I am willing to wait for 3 years to see my thesis play out. Speaking of being long, there is a doctor in Oklahoma who thinks Afrezza will be one of the top ten medications of all time!! :-)
    Check out his Yahoo MB comments in my Instablog post
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No MannKind Buyout Until Afrezza Is Profitable [View article]
    I agree. Investing in a stock expecting a short squeeze to materialize is pure gambling. You will lose more times than you win. As I said before - take a look at BLUE. Short interest in Feb 2014 was 1.5 million shares. Short interest today is 2.1 million shares. In this time, BLUE almost QUADRUPLED in price! The stock price rose, not because of a short squeeze, but because of positive developments. And the rise in price did not cause a reduction in number of shares shorted.

    Another thing - because insiders are selling they must "know something" is an argument often used by shorts. Really? BLUE insiders were selling hand over fist in the $20s and $30s and $40s. BLUE is $91 now!
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: All Distraction, No Clarity [View article]
    thebuddha - Great Post. SA Editor Eli Hoffman wrote:
    "To all the commenters who used this article to ridicule the contributor and take SA to tasks for its lack of due diligence: What do you have to say now?

    I've seen this time and time again. And with very few exceptions, the nay-sayers never show up after the fact to say, "I was wrong."

    Good job Gotham City Research in trying to warn investors. And good job to any of those who listened. "

    Now it is his turn to show up and say "I was wrong."
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No MannKind Buyout Until Afrezza Is Profitable [View article]
    Thanks for this article PA. Just to be clear - while I expect Afrezza to do well in a few years, I am not expecting a lot of sales in 2015. Certainly a lot less than even $1 billion. We should be lucky to see a few hundred million in sales this year. I am in MNKD for the long term. I want to see the product gain traction in the US as that will propel Sanofi and Mannkind to apply to sell it in Europe, Canada and the rest of the world. My biggest fear was (and is) that Sanofi would not make a full push towards marketing this product. Your article and your line of reasoning does help to allay some of my fears. Thanks again.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Afrezza Destined To Be One Of The Top Ten Medications Of All Time? [View instapost]
    User 32796205 - I agree. Forget $8 billion. Afrezza is unlikely to achieve even one-tenth of that in 2015. Even if Afrezza achieves only $40 million in sales in Year 1 it does not matter. There are many important data points to watch for. But to me, one is critical. And that is SALES PROGRESSION. Can Afrezza show INCREASING sales, week after week and month after month? The line does not have to be straight up, but the trend has to be. If so, then Sanofi will continue to put resources into marketing Afrezza. That will take us to year 2016 when we may see application for and approval in Europe and/or other parts of the world.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Semiconductor: The Empty Bullishness Of Ascendiant Capital [View article]
    Jaret, amnon2003, jeffkad, Westpark and others - Thank you for taking the time to carefully analyze what Jay wrote and to pick apart the numerous inconsistencies and factual errors in his two articles on TSEM. In the beginning, Jay tried to post some responses that included numbers and "looked good". But as Jaret and others began to pick out inaccuracies and errors in those responses as well, Jay started beginning or ending every response with "Management is disgusting because they got stock options". By that measure, most publicly traded companies would become "un-investable"!! At this point, it is clear to me that Jay (and perhaps one or more hedge funds that hired him) is trying to drive the price down by spreading FUD (aka Fear Uncertainty and Doubt). He is stuck in a losing short position and is trying to spread FUD to recover from the loss.
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:56 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Great Afrezza Word Of Mouth, But Prescriptions Won't Soar Right Away [View article]
    Good article. However, I believe that there are a few thousand "low hanging fruit" like afrezzauser. They have participated in the trials or are diabetic and have heard about the positive experience trial participants have had (from friends/acquaintances) while on Afrezza. They will get Afrezza prescriptions filled with the help of their PCPs. This should (in my opinion) give the momentum that the product needs and get the snowball rolling downhill. Only time will tell...
    Feb 3, 2015. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zogenix: A Strong Turnaround For 2015 [View article]
    The stock closed up 3 cents or 2.2% on heavy (and well above average) volume. I do not have a position in ZGNX but I was expecting a bit of a pop on FDA approval.
    Feb 2, 2015. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Catalysts For TowerJazz [View article]
    I have had pretty good success with options. Here is some of what I have learned in my 10 plus years of options investing. All my really big wins came from deep in the money (ITM) LEAPS. If you really believe in a stock - buy deep ITM LEAPS. You can never predict short term movements in the stock market. LEAPS (preferably two years out) gives you LEVERAGE and TIME. Deep in the money means you do not pay a premium and still get LEVERAGE . LEAPS as opposed to near time calls gives you the benefit of TIME. Puts are not so great. I have sold puts many times with limited success. You get screwed if the stock goes down big time and you lose all the upside if the stock goes up big time.
    Hope this helps.
    Jan 24, 2015. 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment