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After more than 40 years on Wall Street, Marc Chaikin founded Chaikin Analytics LLC in 2009 to deliver proven stock analytics to financial service professionals and individual investors. With the Chaikin Power Gauge, an alpha-generating quantitative model as its centerpiece, Chaikin Analytics... More
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Chaikin Analytics LLC
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Chaikin Power Gauge Stock Rating Blog
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  • Chaikin Market Insights - December 14, 2014

    Stock Market Research and Tips by Marc Chaikin

    Does Panic Selling Mean the Bull Market is Over?

    The S&P 500 Index, which closed two weeks ago at a new high of 2,075, was pummeled by a renewed bout of selling in the crude oil markets. With West Texas crude (NYSE:WTI) falling under $58 a barrel, all energy related stocks experienced huge declines last week.

    Our proxy for the energy sector, the S&P SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) closed at 74.02 which represents a whopping 26% decline since its June peak at 100. It is amazing that the broad market has held up so well in the face of a bear market in energy stocks.

    The S&P 500 Index finished the week at 2,002.33 down 3.52%. There was a brief rally attempt on Thursday that took the S&P 500 above the 2,050 resistance level early in the day in response to better than expected November retail sales. According to my stock research, this rally failed under the weight of continuing weakness in the energy sector and the uncertainties surrounding the impact of sharply lower crude oil prices on the U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite which had led the market to new highs was off only 2.66%, small consolation to tech bulls, but a clue as to where to find stocks to buy on the sell-off to participate in a renewed advance, if it comes.

    Stock Tip: Buy into further panic selling in stocks with bullish Chaikin Power Gauge stock ratings that have made new highs within the last 2 weeks. Do not bottom fish in the energy pond.

    Is the Bull Market Over: What is Really Driving the Stock Market?

    If you were to believe the Wall Street pundits, then you'd believe this 5 year bull market has been driven by quantitative easing on the part of the Federal Reserve Board, which most analysts feel didn't really create jobs and economic growth but provided liquidity for the banking system.

    The reality is ….

    Dec 15 2:12 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Chaikin Market Insights - November 30, 2014

    Stock Market Analysis by Marc Chaikin

    Energy Stocks Deflated but Broad Market Makes New Highs

    The S&P 500 Index closed Friday at 2,067.56, up 0.2% on the week. The Energy sector took a jolt on Friday with OPEC's decision to maintain crude oil production at current levels. This resulted in a plunge in the price of West Texas crude of 10%. WTI was down 13.5% on the week.

    With all the hand-wringing about the potential impact of the sharp drop in crude oil on the U.S. economy, the major averages finished up fractionally on the week, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite which was up 1.67%.

    We will hear blaring debates over the next 4 weeks about the impact of sharply lower crude oil prices on the economies in the United States, Europe, Russia and the Emerging Markets. Compelling arguments will be made on both sides, with bears citing the negative effects on the U.S. economy of a potential slowdown in shale fracking activity and the bottom line profits of the entire Energy sector. Bulls, on the other hand, will point to the drop in gasoline at the pump as a $75 billion tax cut and extol the benefits for the Retail, Airline and Hotel groups.

    This debate is pure guesswork as we are in unchartered waters. Don't be distracted by the talking heads and the dire headlines, but rather stick to the roadmap detailed in my Market Insights reports over the past 2 months. According to my analysis, expect the stock market to move higher into 2015 with some occasional bumps along the way. View short-term pullbacks in the market as buying opportunities and, as suggested last week, avoid the temptation to bottom fish in energy stocks.

    Last week we said "Stock Research has shown that stocks and industry groups that have led the market higher before Thanksgiving continue to outperform the market through year-end. While there is always bottom fishing in groups like Energy and Materials that have underperformed, the desire to play catch-up usually involves piling into stock market leaders which are more likely to continue strong and less likely to experience further meltdowns."

    This was certainly the case last week as Energy stocks plummeted and the leaders in the Airline, Retail and Technology sectors continued to make new highs, as I specifically pointed out in "This Week's Strongest Industry Groups and Stocks." Subscribers who acted were rewarded: Delta Air (NYSE:DAL), Southwest (NYSE:LUV) and Skywest (NASDAQ:SKYW) all spiked sharply to +8.3%, +10% and +7.7% respectively.

    Let the Chaikin Power Gauge stock rating guide you toward the stocks that are likely to outperform the market and be religious about selling bearish Power Gauge stocks.

    Avoid the temptation to bottom fish in weak Power Gauge stocks and continue to focus your portfolio on strong Power Gauge stocks in strong industry groups …. See my picks for "This Week's Strongest and Weakest Industry Groups and Stocks" at the bottom of this report….

    Tags: LUV
    Dec 01 4:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Chaikin Market Insights - November 8, 2014

    Stock Market Analysis by Marc Chaikin

    S&P 500 Index Makes New Highs After Mid-Term Elections - Rally to Continue

    The S&P 500 Index closed Friday at 2,031.92, up 0.69% on the week. After continuing the previous week's rally into the mid-term elections, the S&P 500 Index finished the week at new all-time highs. Per my analysis of past history, the stock market is just fine with the status quo in Washington as very little is likely to change in terms of major legislation over the next two years. The beneficial effects of the Bank of Japan's massive stimulus continue to help large cap U.S. equities, while comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB would add their version of Quantitative Easing to the Japanese stimulus program.

    With Draghi's admission that the euro zone economies are weakening, there is every reason to believe that the U.S. dollar will remain strong and that the plodding growth of the U.S. economy will continue to look like a hare compared to the tortoise-like condition of the European economies.

    All of the above speaks to a U.S. stock market that will defy the naysayers and skeptics who think that we have rallied too far, too fast and are due for a further correction.

    In fact, according to my stock research, all signs point to continued buying of U.S. equities, particularly the large cap, domestically revenue-centric companies that will not be hurt by a strong U.S. dollar….

    To read the entire article, subscribe to Chaikin Power Suite.

    Nov 10 9:38 AM | Link | Comment!
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