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Marc Chaikin
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After more than 40 years on Wall Street, Marc Chaikin founded Chaikin Analytics LLC in 2009 to deliver proven stock analytics to financial service professionals and individual investors. With the Chaikin Power Gauge, an alpha-generating quantitative model as its centerpiece, Chaikin Analytics... More
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Chaikin Analytics LLC
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Chaikin Power Gauge Stock Rating Blog
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  • Crash In Commodity Prices Leads To Weakness In Emerging Market Currencies And Sparks Concerns About A Global Economic Slowdown

    8/23/15 Stock Market Insights and Ideas by Marc Chaikin

    After breaking the key 2,040 support level on the S&P 500 Index on Thursday, the market collapsed on Friday, declining over 3% across the board. The S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at 1,970.89 down 5.77% on the week. The decline in the S&P 500 was accompanied by very high volume and exceeded our minimum downside expectation of 1,980 which was communicated to all subscribers in a special bearish market alert at 3:45 P.M. on Thursday.

    There are a large number of oversold extremes in price, internal breadth indicators and sentiment, as well as in the very negative Chaikin Power Bars for the major indexes. These include negative extremes in:

    • New Lows - 697
    • % of Stocks above 50-day M.A. - 21%
    • CNN's Fear & Greed Index - 5
    • VIX Options Volatility Index - 28
    • Volume in SPY ETF - Sharply higher
    • TRIN - 2.93 Volume in Declining Stocks Extreme
    • Put/Call volume ratio - 2.2 Worst since 2012

    Below we show 2 graphs of the CNN Fear & Greed Index which summarizes 7 measures of market sentiment and creates the composite sentiment index that follows.

    As you can see by the historical graph, we are nearing the pessimistic readings that are normally associated with a bottom in stock prices. The caveat being that if we have entered into a bear market, all bets are off. However, although we don't think that the low for this move has been seen, we believe that a bear market is not at hand.

    For more market insights, subscribe to PowerSuite Premium, which includes Marc Chaikin's weekly (Sunday) stock market analysis report , Market Insights.

    Disclaimer: Chaikin Analytics LLC is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Chaikin Analytics does not recommend the purchase of any stock or advise on the suitability of any trade. The information presented is generic in nature and is not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, advice or any offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind, but solely as information requiring further research as to suitability, accuracy and appropriateness. Users bear sole responsibility for their own stock research and decisions. Read the entire disclaimer.

    Aug 25 11:35 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stock Market Shakes Off Chinese Devaluation And Closes In Middle Of 4 Month Trading Range

    Stock Market Insights and Ideas by Marc Chaikin

    The S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at 2,091.54 up 0.7% on the week. The very strong market advance on Monday gave way to a 2-day correction when China surprised the market by devaluing their currency by 1.9%. The Wednesday lows held above short-term support levels and by Friday the S&P 500 Index was up on the week.

    As we said last week: "These are the dog days of summer, with many market participants away from their desks, and therefore stock prices can be pushed around more easily."

    The stock market bounced up from an oversold condition on both a daily and a weekly basis. The positive Chaikin Money Flow on Wednesday when the market traded down to our lower volatility bands is encouraging but doesn't change the likelihood of staying within the very narrow 4% sideways range between 2,044 and 2,132.

    We should assume that the bull market is alive and well as long as support in the 2,040-2,050 area on the S&P 500 Index holds. If we close below 2,044 there is an even stronger band of support between 1,978 and 2,015.

    Are There Seasonal Patterns We Should Know About?

    The market is typically weak in the September/October time frame. This makes a breakout above 2,132 more difficult as it has to happen very soon. As we have said this will require a spark of some kind, especially since 2nd quarter earnings didn't succeed in propelling the stock market through its overhead resistance at 2,130.

    A caution flag has been raised by the recent underperformance of market leading Health Care stocks like Anthem Health (NYSE:ANTM), Cigna (NYSE:CI), Mylan NV (NASDAQ:MYL) and Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX). Whether this is just profit-taking and group rotation remains to be seen. Protect your profits in Health Care stocks like this where bullish Chaikin Power Gauge ratings for 12 months have been the precursor of gains of 100% or more.

    For more market insights, subscribe to PowerSuite Premium, which includes Marc Chaikin's weekly stock market analysis report , Market Insights.

    Disclaimer: Chaikin Analytics LLC is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Chaikin Analytics does not recommend the purchase of any stock or advise on the suitability of any trade. The information presented is generic in nature and is not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, advice or any offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind, but solely as information requiring further research as to suitability, accuracy and appropriateness. Users bear sole responsibility for their own stock research and decisions. Read the entire disclaimer.

    Aug 18 12:42 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Fed Fears And Strong Economic Reports Whipsaw Markets- August 12, 2015

    Stock Market Insights and Ideas by Marc Chaikin

    The S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at 2077.57 down 1.2% on the week. There was no follow through to the previous week's bounce, but the stock market held above support levels. The market's fixation on the timing of the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve Board was heightened by strong economic reports. The weakness in media and tech stocks, fueled by Disney's downbeat report and Apple's poor trading patterns, contributed to downbeat end of week trading.

    These are the dog days of summer, with many market participants away from their desks, and therefore stock prices can be pushed around more easily. There are always concerns and profit taking when leading groups like media and technology take a beating.

    The stock market ended the week in an oversold condition on both a daily and a weekly basis, something that is more easily accomplished when there has been such a tight trading range for 6 months. The positive in all this is that Chaikin Money Flow is positive with the market oversold which usually leads to a short-term upswing.

    For more market insights, subscribe to PowerSuite Premium, which includes Marc Chaikin's weekly stock market analysis report , Market Insights.

    Disclaimer: Chaikin Analytics LLC is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Chaikin Analytics does not recommend the purchase of any stock or advise on the suitability of any trade. The information presented is generic in nature and is not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, advice or any offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind, but solely as information requiring further research as to suitability, accuracy and appropriateness. Users bear sole responsibility for their own stock research and decisions. Read the entire disclaimer.

    Aug 12 9:31 PM | Link | Comment!
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