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Marc Chandler

 
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  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    Ben Gee, modern day high? It is still off 1.4% on the year, and the poorest performer of the Asian currencies that Bloomberg tracks. In addition, as I and others note, yuan incurred local costs are still quite minor, with estimates ranging from 12%-20%, depending on the item. This speaks to how it has injected itself into global supply chains. It is still largely an assembler. Its exports are import intensive. That said, in my work, I have argued that conventional thinking places too much emphasis on exchange rates in shaping trade, especially for large, diversified economies.
    Aug 20 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Rides High [View article]
    Dr....The RBA and RBNZ have also hiked rates. They have had mini-cycles within the larger US monetary cycle. I think your "little while back" for BoC rate hikes was four years ago. I mean that that most economists see the BOE as the first of the major central banks to hike rates (in this cycle).
    Aug 20 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone Stagnates, But Euro Doesn't Sell Off [View article]
    jj1937, I think you exaggerate the significance of the sanctions for the world economy. Sanctions are a very small part of the problem the eurozone faces. ECB's new TLTRO facility is launched next month. I think that the ECB will wait to assess the impact of this initiative before they can decide to do more. The US did not change its monetary or fiscal policy after the dismal Q1. Neither will Japan after the sharp contraction in Q2.
    Aug 14 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geopolitical Concerns Ease, Allowing Poor Economic News To Have Sway [View article]
    Luciom, this is largely discounted, I think, looking at the OIS and futures market. It seems to me that at $1.72 a lot of good news for sterling was discounted. Now that the data seems to be warning that the economy may be losing some momentum, sterling is trading heavier, slipping to 2-month lows today.
    Aug 12 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Driving [View article]
    Shifting demographics are consistent with changing society (social transformation). I do not see the bigger point. And I am not sure where the 70-90% figure, which for me is a big difference of the 18-60 year old crowd, the role of the car has not changed has come from or whether it matters. I am only talking about a 9.25% decline in miles driven, adjusted for population size.
    Aug 9 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Russia Trade [View article]
    Snoopy44, I am not going to debate whether Obama should have been elected president. The fact is that he was and the fact is he was re-elected. I also disagree with the "facts" you cite.
    Aug 9 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Driving [View article]
    You might be right, but just to keep it real, I never said it was a problem. I suggest that it might be reflective of a larger social transformation. I purposely did not expound much on what they are, but consider: disintermediation by the internet, re-urbanization, green movement,for example.
    Aug 9 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Russia Trade [View article]
    Snoopy44, this is a slippery slope. I do not dispute that Obama's public support in the US is low. I simply said that calling a US President an empty suit does not do the office or the person justice. In addition, I said, that who occupies the White House does not dictate how Russia pursues its national interest. The sanction response is stronger than when Russia fought Georgia. I have no clue what liberal-dominated mainstream media means in 2014. Who are the advertisers ? Who are the owners ? Is the Wall Street Journal part of main stream media? Is FOX news and CNBC part of the main stream media? What definition of liberal are you using ?

    The Obama as a failed presidency? By what measure ? To go from unpopular, to empty suit to failed presidency...to me this is a slippery slope that gets you further away from the quantifiable evidence you began with. I too am disappointed in the Obama presidency.

    There are failures and successes as in every presidency. When you say it has to change in 2016, I want to reassure you that the constitutional limits prevent Obama from seeking a third term. Therefore things will change. Will a Democrat still occupy the White House ? Maybe. Unless things change you say we may never recover? Recover from what exactly. The US economy is bigger than ever. 1.6 mln jobs have been created this year already. Weekly initial jobless claims are at new cyclical lows. The risks of deflation are reduced. Pssst...the US economy has been expanding for five years now. Despite the unpopular war in Iraq, and Snowden leaks, US leadership in central/eastern Europe and east Asia is being sought.

    I see the graveyard you think I am whistling past, but must you live in it ? The 15 years of what you call ineffective leadership brings us back to the the president that was impeached. Really ? Is that really the good old days we should be eager to return to ? Or did that help create the conditions that led to the Great Financial Crisis and the problems in Iraq ?
    Aug 8 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Russia Trade [View article]
    I find much of these comments to be simply partisanship. In many ways, including the aggressive use of drones, the fact that Gitmo has not been completely closed, Obama has demonstrated resolve. The GOP and Tea Party insurgents may say Obama is an empty suit, but is there any evidence that this is a consensus ? Even among the GOP leadership? Moon Kil Woong is exaggerating. Clearly sanctions were in place and escalating before the commercial aircraft was downed. The US, EU and other countries had already concluded that Russia's actions were unacceptable. His slip into calling Russia the USSR is revealing. The Russian sanctions against those that sanctioned is dismissed by talking about fruits--...By some reckoning around 20% of the retail food turn over will be impacted. It is not a question of whether Russia can handle this or whether Putin blinks first. It is a question of continuing to raise the cost of his course of action. Russia imported $25 bln of foodstuffs last year a little more than a third came from the countries he sanctioned. Note that baby food and alcohol are not included in the bans.
    Aug 8 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S.-Russia Trade [View article]
    I have addressed the argument that Obama is weak and that is what propels Putin. I have pointed out that the US did not respond directly with military means in 1956, 1968 or 2008 when it went to war with Georgia and still occupies part of its. Perhaps it is Snoopy44 who takes a cheap shot at Obama suggesting the president does not know history who is too partisan to recognize that the sanctions are considerably tougher than George Bush's response to Georgia. Perhaps if Bush had been more resolute, Snoopy44's argument against Obama would be more compelling.
    Aug 8 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Corporate Taxes, Inversions And Surplus Capital [View article]
    Rigorous says that I may be "arguing for more excess government policies to micro manage the economy for the social good", yet it is he that advocates using the tax code to micro manage what a business does with their earnings. He proposes getting rid of the corp income tax and then implementing a new tax on "excess"(who determines that again?) retained earnings. My argument is simple, pragmatic and less ideological. Corporates as a whole pay considerably lower taxes that the tax schedule rate. The revenues they generate as a percentage of GDP is low compared with US history and other high income countries. Investment remains low. I am not thinking of new programs or initiatives in my post. I am thinking of how to boost demand and put the country on more solid fiscal footing.
    Aug 8 06:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Industry Employer By State 1990 And 2013 [View article]
    trucks321 thinks that manufacturing is the only source of wealth. It is not. We consume more services than goods. Most of those states, that trucks321 says will soon be broke is not matched by ratings, yields or any other measure. Those states that continue to have mfg as the largest sectoral employer are among the poorest states in the union. Among the high income economies, the service sector employs more than the mfg sector. It is like a farmer in a lower income country arguing that the only source of wealth is land ownership and agriculture output.
    Aug 5 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Disappoints: Muted Market Reaction [View article]
    billcharlesdixon, really ? Did Q1 surprise you on the upside? Did the private sector create 200k jobs in July? There was no reason for the stock market to sell off? Have you not been reading SA?
    Aug 2 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Disappoints: Muted Market Reaction [View article]
    Michael Willims, Do you have any idea why economists seasonally adjust data? Do you know that some months the seasonal adjustment adds and some months subtracts from the nominal data ? Are you really trying to convince SA readers that there has been no improvement in the US labor market ?
    Aug 2 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar And Yuan: No Contest... Yet [View article]
    Robin Steel, I find this confused. Democracy is a form of government. Foreign policy is an action. And who is "we" that are dropping bombs on any one trying to achieve democracy in the Middle East and Caspian sea area? Investment flees East? And what legislation has been passed in the US to sell oil to anyone ? Many assertions are strung together, but an argument that doesn't make.
    Aug 1 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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