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Marc Chandler  

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  • Two Dollar Drivers [View article]
    Tunaman4u2--What do you think happened to the June rate cut expectations? The Fed never said it would hike rates in June. It often said around mid-year it anticipated being able to raise rates. Sept meeting is before the end of the summer. I don't think it is a big deal, yet. Still perhaps you are hung up on wanting some one to say that they were wrong. I admit it. I had thought June was likely. I was wrong. There are worse things than being wrong. Just like traders needs to love their losers, so too do we need to embrace of wrong ideas so we can learn. Most people, and myself included learn a lot more when we are wrong than when we are right.
    May 15, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Dollar Drivers [View article]
    Tunaman4u--I do not think Evans speaks for the Fed. He is an outlier and does not think it proper for the Fed to raise rates this year. He is one of two Fed officials who have argued this line. Regarding the data and how it "never" meets their forecasts. That is too harsh of a judgment and I have already pointed you in the direction of Bernanke's specific response to this criticism. He says that the Fed has not been optimistic enough on the improvement in the labor market. Data is too broad of a category for your question. Some data is improving. I also beg to differ from the idea that the Fed over promises. What does that mean? The Fed does not promise anything, does it? It strives to create the monetary conditions to reach its objectives of full employment, price stability and financial stability. Did the Fed not lower its non-inflationary level of unemployment recently? Is it not near reach it? The Fed has defined price stability as 2% core PCE deflator. It is below there but not dramatically. Financial stability, Yellen has commented about several market segments where valuation is elevated.

    I am not sure who you are really fighting with. I find myself now part of the what the latest WSJ poll says is 73% of economists that expect a Sept hike.

    I do not want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds to me like you do not expect it this year. That is one of the functions of markets. Invest accordingly.
    May 15, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Dollar Drivers [View article]
    tunaman4u2--I obviously did not promise a hike as I cannot deliver it. I still recognize a very strong chance of a Fed hike this year. Bernanke has already argued against this view that the Fed is overly optimistic by pointing to the drop in the US unemployment rate, which has consistently been greater than the Fed anticipated. As I argue in this post, I do not accept that a disappointing retail sales figure for April will really impact the Fed's decision in Sept.

    You say the Fed is talking Sept or December. Really? They specified that? Really? I must have missed that. I thought the whole point is to get investors comfortable with a data emphasis rather than a date focus.
    May 15, 2015. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Dollar Drivers [View article]
    HanYolo please do not use this comment section to harass me. I told you before the dollar was rallying, now it is not. I still expect the rally to resume. If you are truly interested in my views, please note that I write for different time frames.

    I am disciplined and appreciate that market do not move in a straight line and you take the time, you'll see that while I do think the Obama dollar rally will be a bit longer than the Clinton dollar rally, if not as long as the Reagan dollar rally, my point forecasts did not look at a move to parity this year.
    May 15, 2015. 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Firmer But Going Nowhere Quickly [View article]
    HanYolo, Look in Q1 the dollar had among its biggest rallies ever. Now it is not rallying. My long-term forecasts have not changed. I still think that before the Obama dollar rally is over, the euro will test its historical lows. My daily notes try to explain and describe what I think is happening. The fact, sir, that I am not constantly talking bullish dollar shows that I am not "pumping" it.

    I am not sure where your hostility is coming from. Perhaps it is mis-directed. Perhaps if you were to try to write about the markets every day, you'll be more sensitive to those of us that do.
    May 12, 2015. 06:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside Momentum Has Stalled, But Does It Presage A Dollar Recovery? [View article]
    shn1974--It strikes me that up until now countries that tightened monetary policy had to cut them again. The divergence between RBA and RBNZ now seems to favor Aussie. I think an RBNZ rate cut before the end of the year is reasonable.
    May 10, 2015. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside Momentum Has Stalled, But Does It Presage A Dollar Recovery? [View article]
    Yes. I continue to think that the Obama dollar rally will take it toward there before the bull market is over. My time frame is H2 16. It is based on the divergence of monetary policy between the US and most other developed economies and China. It is based on a positive development in US terms of trade and the impact of being less tied to foreign oil. I could be wrong. I have been wrong before. I will be wrong again. That said, my book Making Sense of the Dollar, published in 2009, anticipated the current dollar bull market.
    May 9, 2015. 12:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tories' Victory Stuns Polls, But Jobs Data To Determine Dollar's Fate [View article]
    Fishfryer said "If the jobs data is good it will affect markets, if it is lousy it will be ignored." I have no problem with anticipating an asymmetrical response. However, in response to my next post in which I say the employment data is in line with expectations and signals a recovery from March, Fishfryer says he will stop following me because I am wrong. He say here the economy is failing. I recognize the economy in Q1 likely contracted, but like Q1 14, it is not representative of the overall economy. The US economy may be growing slowly, but it is growing. I make cogent arguments. I am not always right, but prosperous investors wrestle with views they disagree with. There is considerable less to learn from someone who shares our views and values. Let see in fishfryer the mistake of an ideologue and re-commit ourselves to avoiding repeating it.
    May 9, 2015. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tories' Victory Stuns Polls, But Jobs Data To Determine Dollar's Fate [View article]
    Afellowtraveler--I am not sure I would agree that Labour ran a populist campaign.
    May 9, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Jobs Growth Recovers [View article]
    Actually the survey showed there was a 125k decline in number of involuntary part-time positions.
    May 9, 2015. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Jobs Growth Recovers [View article]
    thank you.
    May 9, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Better Than Gold? Ask Venezuela [View article]
    Fishfryer, that is exactly my point. Say that you are right that Chavez did the right thing by moving the reserves away from fiat dollars in to gold. Gold has tripled in price. Good investment man. You bought gold at $300 it is now at $1200. Now you need dollars to pay for imports, to service the debt. But you don't get the $1200. That my point. I give you $720. Call the difference whatever you want, though the jargon in the industry is a haircut--and if you call up the various press reports many also referred to it as a haircut.. In any event, you have turned $300 into $720. That is good still, though if you give me capital gains and yield from the time you and Chavez made your choice,and when adjusted for risk or volatility, the Treasury purchases which I no doubt recommended to the two of you, did not fare so bad.
    May 6, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Better Than Gold? Ask Venezuela [View article]
    Greek banks take their Greek bonds to the Greek central bank. 100 euros of bonds might get 60 euros. We call that a haircut. It refers to the spread between the market value at a particular point in time and the amount that will be loaned against it. The point of my note was that by keeping too much of its reserves in gold, Venezuela was forced by circumstance to swap the gold at a 40% discount to its value. I don't know what is going to happen going forward. I do those see reference to the persistence of low oil prices to be increasingly less relevant as it has not rallied nearly 40% off its lows.
    May 6, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Wrestles With Itself [View article]
    I do not see privatizations as holding up negotiations. I think the Syriza govt already backed down on its opposition. For example a large port concession will be made to China and that seemed to have helped facilitate China's recent purchase of some Greek T-bills. It become the only foreign country to do so. My understanding is that deals negotiated would not be backtracked and new deals would be considered on a case-by-case basis. Remember the Greek economy is terribly unproductive. There are not a lot of assets in Greece.
    May 6, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Shrugs Off Poor Japanese And U.K. Data [View article]
    ghiblinewt, it has been a while since I did my readings in the philosophy of science, but I think you have cherry picked here. In Kuhn's language, what you describe is activity under the inherited paradigm, but there have been dramatic paradigm shifts. What you are talking about in economics is a paradigm shift. I have no problem with that.

    You say "I do not believe that Economics in its current form will survive the next few decades, simply because an Economy is a complex and adaptive system, and any scientific description of that system must, perforce allow for this." I think this applies to numerous disciplines not just economics. Again, i want to stress that science is a methodology not a particular conclusion.
    May 6, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment