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Marc Chandler  

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  • The Real Drag Of Government [View article]
    alf2011, yes you can call green yellow if you want, but it doesn't make it so. The size of the state varies in Western Europe and to regard them the same is disingenuous. Besides health care, which I argue was first proposed by Nixon and tried by Romney, I can't think of much else that Obama has done to "push the US in the direction of Western Europe style socialism", what ever that really means.
    Sep 29, 2013. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Drag Of Government [View article]
    Fanebrb, these are representative institutions and to paraphrase Churchill, it may be the worst form of government except for all the others.
    Sep 29, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Drag Of Government [View article]
    With all due respect Mr Berger, I do not accept the separation of politics and economics. Did not Adam Smith, David Riccardo and Alfred Marshall not believe they were doing political economy. Second, my piece addresses the drag that government spending is having on the economy, which is not fully appreciated, even though it was a factor that the Fed point to in its recent decision not to taper. I did not make up the chart, and even cited that it came from the Chicago Federal Reserve President. Of course, you do not have to read my commentary and analysis. By all means stick with the political views you like and agree with. Good luck with that.
    Sep 29, 2013. 01:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Drag Of Government [View article]
    Great Swamii, is it not true: 1) most of Obama's economic team has come from the Rubin-wing, 2) is it not for free trade as commonly understood, 3) did it not enact financial deregulation under the Clinton government and 4) did it not, again, in the Clinton government deliver a budget surplus ?
    Sep 29, 2013. 12:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Outlook: Is It Really All About The Fed ? [View article]
    blinc, i track 7 currencies here every week, but there are 14 gross positions that is i am interested here in not just the net positions (net = long +short), but i am also interested in gross positions. 7 currencies = 14 gross positions. I think the text clearly says 14 gross positions that I track not currencies.
    Sep 15, 2013. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FX Turnover [View article]
    blinc, more data is available from the BIS and the link I provide in the text. I do not understand why you and BankimPatel would find fx turnover per capita at all significant. Foreign exchange is not limited to the country's whose currency is being traded. Say that we find that the Singapore dollar has the highest per capita turnover, what does that mean ? If trading of SGD takes place in London and the US, it does not even say anything about the debt of Singapore's fx market.
    Sep 15, 2013. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Area Finance Ministers Meet Tomorrow: No Exit [View article]
    Mickey99 poses what I think is a false dilemma. Impossibility of devaluation and restructuring or fiscal union. I think there have been internal devaluations in terms of falling unit labor costs. There is the movement toward fiscal union. For example, budgets must be approved by the EC. After six quarters of contraction, the euro area has been expanding. The periphery, outside of Italy, is seeing improvement in the external balances and not just because of the collapse of imports and domestic demand, but also stronger exports. Moreover, as I have argued here at SA for a few years, more countries are joining.
    Sep 12, 2013. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Mixed Amid Risk-On Impulses [View article]
    ah and today they are pulled in opposite directions--Aussie down, but holds the week's lows (so far) and kiwi pops higher on hawkish central bank.
    Sep 12, 2013. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Mixed Amid Risk-On Impulses [View article]
    Nima, I am a bit more optimistic, especially in the near-term. Market positioning still appears weighted toward the shorts. The better Chinese news. The switch in the OIS from expecting another rate cut to a rate hike over the next 12 months. And the new government with potential to cut the carbon/mining tax, which may encourage direct investment inflows. Technically, I think a double bottom may have been carved out and the Aussie is holding above the neck line. If true, it suggest potential toward the around $0.95, which is also the 38.2% retracement of the decline since the mid-April highs. I do not see any bearish divergences in the rsi or macds. It is flirting with the upper end of the Bollinger band, but it (bollinger band) is also set to widen.

    Good luck.
    Sep 11, 2013. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy's Woes Mount [View article]
    design shoe--really ? the MPS is old news ? Today the Italian bond yield rose above the Spanish bond yield for the first time in about 18 months ? old news ? The Italian stock market is up this month but there are faster horses in the European equity rally and the CDS suggests one ought to be compensated for the extra risk.
    Sep 10, 2013. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The Week Ahead [View article]
    wmateri, I have suggested that there are many moving parts and each could be a source of disappointment. Yes, I think that tapering later this month is what has been anticipated. I think this lends itself to a sell the rumor buy the fact in the Treasury market and the reverse in the dollar.

    I think the disappointment could come that it does not taper; that its tapers by a smaller amount; that it tempers the taper with a providing a lower boundary for inflation, or lower unemployment threshold, or in other ways drive home the point that tapering is not tightening.

    I think the market has put more credence in the upticks in economic activity measures and not enough in the fact that employment growth this year is slower than last year, and especially in the fact that the core pce deflator is lower than when Bernanke as governor was worried about deflation. The core measure in Q2 GDP report was less than 1.0%.

    I think the way people make money in the markets is not really so much by predicting the future as assessing the odds. I think the risk is that the market is disappointed.
    Sep 8, 2013. 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Jobs Disappoint, Spurs Some Jitters About Tapering [View article]
    "Have to" or want to ? With disinflation (low inflation) I am not sure where you see the necessity or urgency. I am not saying the Fed won't begin tapering, My argument is that even if the Fed does taper, the market may be and the price action may not be what one intuitively expects.
    Sep 7, 2013. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Starts With A Bang [View article]
    American in Paris, but did we not just get benchmark revisions to the GDP data ? Do we want to set monetary policy based on this "dark matter"? Some would argue that given the gap between tax schedules and actual tax payments makes extrapolating from tax revenues to growth difficult. Is it it remarkable that during a period of slow growth, corporate profits are at record highs ?
    Sep 1, 2013. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sterling Sold On Carney Speculation, Bought Back On Fact [View article]
    I was under the impression that the easing of bank liquidity ratios was already signaled. For me, more importantly, the problem in the UK is not that the banks lack the wherewithal to lend. So freeing up more funds for the banks is unlikely to boost lending.
    Aug 28, 2013. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Still Vulnerable [View article]
    Samuraitrader--though not as audacious claims, I generally agree, but that dollar outlook long-term is good. I think though that QE is not ending until mid-2014 and there are a lot of dollar longs that i think may need to be washed out before a strong rally may be seen.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment