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Marc Chandler  

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  • Greece Back In Play As Bundesbank Strikes Out At German Government [View article]
    When are we going to stop getting these silly comments about how Greece has no business in the euro area, as if there were objective criteria that no one else fudged? When are we going to stop getting these silly comments that German pays Greek bills, when they have not and have profited from the lower interest rates that have transpired during the crisis. When are we going to stop getting these silly posts that make it sound like Greece is being bailed out, when it is really German (and other banks) and the official creditors ?
    Aug 13, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Infinite Future Of The Yen [View article]
    Viper, of all things we need to worry about, that Japan has too sell off foreign assets quickly is not one of them. I would note that based on MOF data Japanese investors have sold about $70 bln of foreign bonds this year $50 bln of foreign equities on a net basis, and this does not appear to have caused a significant disruption in the global capital markets. The investment strategy that follows from your analysis is to be short JGBs. Good luck with that.
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Week, Same Drivers [View article]
    You raise an interesting question. Does the cross border movement of capital help Japan? After all it does run a current account surplus and should then be a net exporter of capital. The impact on the yen is mitigated by those that hedge out the fx risk--see DXJ--and look at how its AUM has grown. I suppose the importance of foreign buying of Japanese equities for Japan is that one day Japan';s domestic savings may not be sufficient to cover its budget deficit and it will have to import capital. Familiarity helps. In addition, I do not buy Japanese stocks because it is good for Japan, but because I think it will be good for me. And participating in the global system requires openness to capital inflows.
    Aug 12, 2013. 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Infinite Future Of The Yen [View article]
    I think what it assumes is that Japanese investors can sell foreign assets to repatriate the funds for domestic use, which seems to me to be what happened after the earthquake/tsunami and what has happened in recent months, until about five weeks ago, when Japanese investors began buying foreign bonds again. I have seen no sign of what Viper740 seems to suggest would happen. The assets it sold and will sell are not its domestic assets but its accumulation of foreign assets, such as Treasuries, European bonds, etc.
    Aug 12, 2013. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Infinite Future Of The Yen [View article]
    the accumulation of Japanese assets abroad is contained in a report called Net International Investment position. You will find that Japan enjoys the largest surplus (what it owns minus what foreigners own of theirs) in the world.
    Aug 11, 2013. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive: Surplus Capital Revisited [View article]
    Economic Analyst, that sounds reasonable, though it seems to me that velocity is a derived number--gdp/money supply= velocity. What this means to me is that the statement you make about money supply + velocity = prices is a tautology and therefore may not be very helpful even if true.
    Aug 9, 2013. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Consolidates Weekly Losses [View article]
    Asbytec, Evans comments have at least on the margins increased the risk, though I am not not yet convinced. It seems to me though that many are looking past the tapering and more talk among investors about the fiscal showdown in Sept, that you previously cited.
    Aug 9, 2013. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sterling And Yen Lead Pressure On The Dollar [View article]
    from one dude to another, thanks.
    Aug 5, 2013. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sterling And Yen Lead Pressure On The Dollar [View article]
    problem: where the beef?
    solution: stop reading if i am not adding value to you.
    Happy to take a look at your analysis, dude.
    Aug 5, 2013. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Poised To Ease To Lower End Of Recent Ranges [View article]
    arthur--when one trades futures one has to declare if one has an underlying business need (commercial) or not (speculator). What I track here is the speculative positions. I look at changes in the net and gross (longs and shorts). I look at only the futures here, not the options.
    Aug 4, 2013. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soft Jobs Report Keeps Tapering Thoughts At Bay, Pressures Dollar [View article]
    Asbytec, yes, I too have at times under-appreciated the resilience of the euro. In a post that will be up later today, I point to three recent sources of demand for the euro, outside of speculative flows: US money markets, M&A, and global fund managers (buying European bonds and stocks).
    Aug 4, 2013. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Poised To Ease To Lower End Of Recent Ranges [View article]
    "hold world markets hostage" what does that even mean ?
    Aug 4, 2013. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soft Jobs Report Keeps Tapering Thoughts At Bay, Pressures Dollar [View article]
    Whidbey suggests confidence in Fed policy has been lost or at least open to question. I would be interested in quantifying the first part of the claim, which I doubt exists. The second part strikes me as a tautology, policy is always open to question.

    Regarding the budget and debt ceiling debate next month, I am not so such it will be any more a debacle than these things usually are, and the potential negativity for the dollar, I think rests just as much on foreign developments as within the US--such as the German election or new pressures in the European periphery. The tapering talk in the US is also important.

    I have nothing to say about the so-called precious metals, which were more precious months ago, despite the on-going balance sheet expansion by world's three largest economies (US, China and Japan) and a debate about the debt ceiling and 2014 budget in the US does not strike me as a reason to buy them. There may be other reasons to buy them, such as technical factors, or as a proxy not an alternative to equities, given the recent correlations.

    When thinking about the impact of a potential sequester, rather than deduce it from first principles, try induction...how did the dollar respond to this year's sequester ?
    Aug 3, 2013. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi Said [View article]
    Best thank you is to find value in my musings and be successful. And I thank you for your comments and questions that often deepen my own thinking.
    Aug 2, 2013. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Infinite Future Of The Yen [View article]
    Tyler, the signal I am sending by a point forecast is that all those macro economic points you want to talk about are well known and did not prevent the dollar from trading below JPY80 less than a year ago. The key question is seems to me is now that Abenomics has been implemented and discounted, what is the force that will take the yen sharply lower ? Is is Japanese crisis ? Higher US rates ? One factoid that is missed, in my opinion, in focusing on Japanese domestic fundamentals is, as we have seen in Europe, there is incredibly large amount of overseas assets that can be repatriated. It is true that in the past four week, Japanese investors have been buying foreign bonds, but the big surprise this year has been their aggressive selling and repatriation. Japan is not bankrupt in any stretch of the imagination.
    Aug 2, 2013. 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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