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Marc Chandler  

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  • Policymakers' Intentions Are More Critical Drivers Than Macroeconomics In The Week Ahead [View article]
    First, there has long been a gap between the Fed funds futures and the Fed's signals. Second, the Fed funds futures do not settle at the target rate but at the effective average rate during the month. This is a key unknown and why in an earlier post, I expressed skepticism over the Bloomberg black box that is commonly cited. It is possible that the Fed funds average the bottom end of the range rather than the middle of the range. If you assume hike in the range in December and that Fed funds average 25 bp for the remainder of the month, it is not far off presently.
    Oct 5, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Bulls Bend, But Will They Break? [View article]
    Monetary policy does not matter to the dollar? Really? The economy doesn't matter to the dollar? Hmmm.....
    Oct 4, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Russian Enigma Unravels [View article]
    fishfryer, i am not convinced Putin has checkmated us in Syria. So easy to see? Really? You anticipated this action in Syria? Kudos. I don't see China's hand here, despite your claim that China and the Russia aligning against the US.
    Oct 4, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Bottom In The DAX [View article]
    "It's all fun and games being the World's policeman until you deal with Russia? Really? Kind of insensitive, don't you think? Iraq, Afghanistan is not about Russia. Vietnam?

    From the BBC "The Russian defence ministry said the country's air force had targeted IS military equipment, communication facilities, arms depots, ammunition and fuel supplies - and did not hit civilian infrastructure or areas nearby."
    Sep 30, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Bottom In The DAX [View article]
    i don't know who is "our" as in our goal is crimea? No doubt the US and Europe want Russia to pullout, but goal? "Crimea has always been the goal" huh.
    Sep 30, 2015. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Always Emerging [View article]
    Yes, agree Israel is exceptional. It is unique and its successes may not be able to be duplicated. I had Israel in an earlier draft of the essay, but took it out because I was at a loss to explain it. Yes, I read Start Up Nation, but many other countries have mandatory service without Israel's success. It was not a colony, but its can we say special relationship with both the US and the Jewish Disapora have arguably been important in not only Israel's survival but in providing it with critical aid and capital. What do you think?
    Sep 30, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Bottom In The DAX [View article]
    "The next move is to escalate the Ukraine with hopes of gaining Crimea" This is why "It's been easy to predict so far" as Russia already occupies Crimea and as annexed it, no?
    Sep 30, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets On Tenterhooks [View article]
    Thanks, yeah I think i had warned that the DAX could gap lower. Although it did not on the day I expected, yesterday it recorded the lows for the year. I think it has come close to a bottom or at least a tradeable low. I see bullish divergences in the daily rsi and macds. I like the gap higher opening today. First real test in near 10,000.
    Sep 30, 2015. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence Drivers And The Dollar [View article]
    Thanks Mike. I am familiar with the report, which was issued months before ECB's QE. The kind of divergence I speak of is about the trajectory of monetary policy. I see it only marginally related to the de-leveraging, which is what the linked report addresses.
    Sep 29, 2015. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abenomics 2.0 [View article]
    I am not sure that Abenomics lower the standards of living of the Japanese population. The economy is contracted slower than the population declined. Per capita GDP it has done better than many may suspect.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence Drivers And The Dollar [View article]
    Like I said, with conservative assumptions about the euros China holds in reserves, a 20% year-over-year depreciation of the euro vs the USD could account by $200 bln decline in China's reserves. The Bloomberg link is from May, and if anything, capital outflows likely picked up in the wake of the stock market slide and the devaluation. We do know that HK is seen capital inflows as officials have had to intervene to defend the HKD peg. I do not see China seeking a maxi devaluation. I anticipate a weaker yuan vs the dollar, but one that could still appreciate against other emerging market currencies.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergence Drivers And The Dollar [View article]
    Mike--I tend to think capital outflows from China are exaggerated. I suggest partly why in this post. I do suggest that the divergence meme applies to China as well. I do expect a slightly weaker yuan, but it is not clear how much latitude Chinese officials are truly giving to market forces.
    Sep 28, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen Lifts Dollar [View article]
    These are straw men. The Fed has never committed itself to hiking. It says it still anticipates it will this year. Did they not do the same thing with tapering, despite the calls from the galleries that its is QE infinity and that the Fed would never end it? The Fed does not target GDP. Its mandate are for full employment, price stability and financial stability. We had stronger growth in Q2 and Q3 last year and the Fed continued to taper, but still made little progress on inflation. Is GDP a perfect measure? No. Does it get revised ? Yes. Does this mean it is useless? No. Does it mean Yellen is crazy or incompetent? No. No leadership? Far from it. People often say that when they do not like what the leaders have done. Will the Fed hike ? I think so. I have been wrong before and will not doubt be wrong again. I still think that when the history of this period is written the Fed will fare well.
    Sep 25, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More News, Same Story, Dollar Remains Firm [View article]
    precisely what i not in my early post today --Sept 24--. I was on Bloomberg TV yesterday and was asked about this as some analyst ahd played up the link. I suggested it ws exaggerated.
    Sep 24, 2015. 06:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Tokyo Do With The Yen When They Return? [View article]
    Moon, do just make this stuff up? Outside of one member of the FOMC, do you see any Fed official saying they think the US economy needs more stimulus? Has Japan or the US adopted negative interest rates ever? When you say current bet, of whom do you speak? Surely the surveys suggests a large number of bank economists expect the BOJ to announce more asset purchases as early as next month?
    What you say is certain " One thing is certain, it can't afford to engage in bigger QE than it recently has without making everyone flee for fear of what it will do next" does not look so certain to me. Stringing a series of assertions should not be confused with constructing a robust argument.
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment