Marc Courtenay

TIM Sentiment Report: Brokers More Bullish

Thanks for this insight. As a contrarian I think the TIM report is quite useful. Please keep these reports coming our way.

Q3 Earnings Season: Not the Time to Get Short

The market also appears to be somewhat "oversold" at the moment, and the "big players" still have a lot of stock inventory to unload. My sources tell me they want to unload at higher prices than are currently available. That should help cement your reasoning for staying long a short while more. But beware, a huge "bear-trap" lies ahead.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

As a P.S.: I finally decided to sell my shares of APL on 9/25/09 and replaced that money with shares of EPD. Hope it works out and I'm glad I decided to wait until now.

Nibbling on Natural Gas and a Concern about Atlas Pipeline Partners

I finally sold my APL shares on Friday, 9/25/09, and decided to buy some EPD to take its place. Hope it works out.


On Aug 22 11:18 AM [e-mail] wrote:

> MARC: IS IT TO SOON TO GIVE UP ON APL. OIL PRICES ARE STILL NOT SETTLED
>
>
> FRANK

China Admits Gold's Monetary Role: Time to Buy

The impact that the Chinese people and their inclination to save using hard assets like silver and gold can not be overstated. Thanks for an interesting read.

Rally May Last Longer than Expected

I encourage each of you to become thoroughly acquainted with, (and I mean invest some time and effort) at Richard Wendling's free site at BearFactsSpecialistRep...
Richard's web site and his monthly DJIA reports can teach a great deal about the time-frames of both rallies and declines. The media and the most-listened to commentators want people to believe that the stock market rally has a long way to go. Why? Discover who and what makes the major stocks on the NYSE and Nasdaq go up and down. The facts on this topic are the best kept secrets on Wall Street today. Do your homework and find out how the "Exchanges" operate, what a "Specialist" and a "Market Maker" are, and where the mass media derives their "headlines", their daily emotional themes, and why CNBC, Bloomberg, and every other US financial channel follows the same script in concert with each other. This isn't "conspiracy" talk, this is "reality" talk, and it's high time we wake up and get to the bottom of what makes many of the large cap stocks go up and down. There is much to learn, and it will help us all know more about when to buy and when to sell. If you're willing to dig, ask questions, do your "due diligence" and open your mind to realities that others don't want to see, you'll become a much better investor and you'll seldom loose much money.

Peak Oil: A Reality or a Lie?

Thank you, and I'm looking forward to reading your book when it is available.


On Aug 27 11:25 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Marc, have you ever heard me tell people that I am the leading academic
> energy economist in the world. I do it all the time, and when there
> is nobody around I tell myself. Anyway, today I was sitting in marvelous
> Stockholm, whatching the animals go by, and also putting together
> the lecture on peak oil that I plan to give soon, in which I crush
> doubters.
>
> Well, this great article of yours will be referred to, although in
> the first chapter of my new book (or the chapter on oil) I'm afraid
> that I will use the word brilliant to describe it. Your article is
> what we need to give the fools their comeuppance.
>
> Is it really so, is it really and truly so, that people are so dumb
> that they can look at the frequency plots (of outputs) for hundreds
> of fields, and a dozen regions (like the US, UK and Norwegian North
> Sea, Russia) and come to the conclusion that there will not be a
> global peak. Of course, who gives a damn. When the oil price starts
> to escalate again nobody is going to ask about peak oil.

Nibbling on Natural Gas and a Concern about Atlas Pipeline Partners

I've decided to hang-in-there for awhile longer with APL. It's a tough call, and remember, "it's the snake we don't see that bites us", so if anything unforeseen goes wrong this is one heck of a volatile stock. That being said, a lot could go right for it, and if they continue their dividend and keep their debt manageable it might just work out. Caveat Emptor!

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

I hope you are right, but today there is a bloodbath today in APL on heavy volume. I hope it means some big players are accumulating for the next big run-up. On Yahoo! Finance, their daily interactive chart, there's a big block trade of 82,000 shares at 5.925 four minutes after the opening (9:34am EST) and most of the rest of the down volume for the day from that time has been smaller blocks but a heck of a lot of them. I still have my APL only because I'm betting (and believe me it is a gamble) that those 1 million shares that someone bought today under $6 a share might be worth more down the road. It might be a sucker's bet, so you'll have to figure this out for yourself if you, like me, decided to hold your shares. Let's also hope they resume their dividend payout, as that would help.


On Aug 23 10:47 PM Gary Klahr wrote:

> The big knock on APL had been its debt problem. Since that has been
> alleviated, and they are promising to start dividends again next
> year, I would THINK that there is much more upside at this price.
> APL was a good short in the past--but like C and BAC, now may be
> the time to BUY---when NO ONE wants it. (Who ever thought you could
> QUADRUPLE your $$ in C in 6 weeks or BAC in 3 months??)What fool
> was SELLING GE below 6 that day a few mos ago???

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Yes, I'm aware of the NAV premium, and yes, it does concern me. If UNG figures out a way to issue more shares and units, perhaps we will see some dilution, which might reduce the share price somewhat more in the weeks to come. Today UNG is up over 2% while natural gas is up 5%.


On Aug 23 11:02 AM basehitz wrote:

> Sub $3 NG. Tough to lay off, but a lot of questions.
>
> UNG is at 14% premium to NAV. So far, new units recently allowed
> by SEC have not been issued. Then there’s the potential CTFC new
> position limits. And finally, UNG managers are hedging potential
> new regulations by selling futures and buying swaps, which carries
> it’s own risk.
>
> NG defies many attempts to call a bottom and continues to drift lower.
>
>
> On storage capacity, I built an offline application to try to project
> future storage. Weekly updates from EIA are fed in, and the 3-week
> avg injection projected forward. It currently predicts peak storage
> of 3.789 Bcf as determined by EIA will be reached Oct 23rd.
>
> Weather.com doesn’t show any Atlantic storms currently. But it will
> get wild if one threatens the gulf.
>
> The contango remains ridiculous at 16% as of Friday. The roll period
> was complete Aug 18th, so I would have thought it would back off.
> Instead it ballooned from 12% the prior Friday.
>
> If the market corrects, typically energy moves with it.
>
> That’s a lot of moving parts.
>
> Last week I flipped GAZ a couple trades to avoid some of the above.
> Then they decided to stop issuing new shares also and their premium
> to NAV expanded to 7%. Also too high.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Thanks Andy. Very useful insights and ideas.


On Aug 24 09:09 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> and just to comment.....this has helped me...both from an investing
> and trading stand point.
>
> Jesse Livermoore would let the move happen in the direction he thought
> it would move and then invest.....having immediate gains from an
> investment or trade is easier emotional wise.....even if you are
> right in the long term investment. Seeing those immediate gains confirms
> your choice.
>
> I use range contraction trading methods for trading AND investing
> entries. I also wait for confirmation on the move in the direction
> I think the stock is going to move and make my investment right then
> and there.
>
> For example....BQI is one stock I am watching that is about to break
> out to the upside.......if you see a powerful move upward (which
> is right there) we should see a large move upwards.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Yes I did. Thanks for the clarification.


On Aug 23 11:22 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> i think the author means 2.50 per million btu/

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Thanks for the ideas and suggestions


On Aug 23 09:07 AM sligoo wrote:

> For safety in numbers AND dividends, check out TYY and FEN. This
> move also lets you avoid the onerous tax problems associated with
> owning master partnerships outright,e.g. APL.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

I did want to disclose that after I wrote and posted this article, I decided late Wednesday (right before the closing bell) to nibble on some shares of Citigroup (C) at $4.12. Today I'm glad I did since C has broken above its 200-day Moving Average. My thesis in the article still stands, and if I get my 20% or so profit on C I will take my profits with gratitude. Knowing when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy in my estimation.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

Energy's contribution will play a role. But most of all, it will be led by the media and the ongoing promotion of this rally by the most influential voices and the talking heads. The final role is also the most important one. The exchange specialists and market insiders want to make a wonderful profit on their stock inventory (don't we all) so they will rally stocks higher and higher to bring in more buyers. Then, my guess is, just when prices stun everyone on the upside, they will begin to short the market (perhaps beginning with the financial stocks) and set the stage for the "Big Fall". This is may take another 4 to 6 weeks, but it could happen sooner.


On Aug 19 07:29 PM Paul Z wrote:

> Marc,
>
> I completely agree, overall I've been bearish for the 2nd half of
> this rally, rubbing my eyes the entire way. I started thinking the
> beginning of the bear market was this week, and it may be.
>
> ....until this morning when I saw crude jump today on lower reserves,
> thus leading the market up today. Do you think it is possible that
> the final jump before the next big correction will be led by energy?