Marc Courtenay

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

I did want to disclose that after I wrote and posted this article, I decided late Wednesday (right before the closing bell) to nibble on some shares of Citigroup (C) at $4.12. Today I'm glad I did since C has broken above its 200-day Moving Average. My thesis in the article still stands, and if I get my 20% or so profit on C I will take my profits with gratitude. Knowing when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy in my estimation.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

Energy's contribution will play a role. But most of all, it will be led by the media and the ongoing promotion of this rally by the most influential voices and the talking heads. The final role is also the most important one. The exchange specialists and market insiders want to make a wonderful profit on their stock inventory (don't we all) so they will rally stocks higher and higher to bring in more buyers. Then, my guess is, just when prices stun everyone on the upside, they will begin to short the market (perhaps beginning with the financial stocks) and set the stage for the "Big Fall". This is may take another 4 to 6 weeks, but it could happen sooner.


On Aug 19 07:29 PM Paul Z wrote:

> Marc,
>
> I completely agree, overall I've been bearish for the 2nd half of
> this rally, rubbing my eyes the entire way. I started thinking the
> beginning of the bear market was this week, and it may be.
>
> ....until this morning when I saw crude jump today on lower reserves,
> thus leading the market up today. Do you think it is possible that
> the final jump before the next big correction will be led by energy?

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

As usual, Mad Hedge Fund Trader, your comments and perspective are appreciated. Right now the media and the operators of the DJIA are trying desperately to get investors to buy long for awhile longer. At least that's the appearances. At some point I anticipate a sudden, dramatic and unexpected reversal that will bring the big cap stocks down to much more attractive prices. That will probably happen sooner than later.


On Aug 19 03:14 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> zxcb. There has been a lot of chatter in the blogosphere lately
> about the eerie and frightening similarities between our current
> global stock markets and those of 1937. Look at the great chart below,
> which I obtained from the ace quants at charlesnenner.com/.
> After a ferocious dead cat bounce and a tortuous period of sideways
> consolidation, we break down to a final Armageddon sell off. Top
> technical analyst, Louise Yamada, has also been highlighting this
> risk, and many big hedge funds are positioned accordingly. I believe
> that markets will always do what they have to do to screw the most
> people, and this would be it in spades. Imagine trying to trade the
> tedious 500 point range for six months, only to see the indexes drop
> by half and volatility double. You can kiss another generation of
> traders goodbye. Whatever you do, don’t short volatility here in
> the mid twenties in mid August.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

Welcome aboard. When I pulled up my own article from the Yahoo! Finance page for Citigroup I also got a sudden "pop-up ad" that my blocker blocked and it triggered a scan by my security software. I don't know how these desperate scoundrels attach some nuisances but it happens. It sounds like you are being cautious about your investments and approach to stocks. This is very wise. I'll be watching C with you to see how the exchange specialists, the Market-Makers, and the other "Big Players" you mentioned manipulate C and in which direction. Please let me know if you learn anything significant about what is currently is going on with C, but the most important piece of evidence we can be looking for is big blocks of volume at strategic times during the day, at least in my opinion.


On Aug 19 04:35 PM Cabdriver wrote:

> Its disconcerting that I had to reload/start over this page 3+ times
> because of advertising/popup/lies about the state of my machine.
> I just signed up yesterday, was refered to this article by updown.com,
> & some advertiser has to play games with me. I hope this doesn't
> continue lest I resign just as quick.
>
> Back to the article, interesting, but not one mention of the "Big"
> players; the Fed & that Prince [Aliweed I think, at$4 if memory
> serves, is still abuck below what he bought at the last time we went
> through this with the banking sector aka S&L "crisis"]. As a
> relative newbie to the market, I'll consider all the info provided
> in addition to the history. As for "cheerleaders", well those of
> us that are "retired" understand the motivations of fellow retirees,
> like the other banks [I'm looking at you PNC] there was a big opportunity
> to profit when "others were losing their heads", I welcome any time
> I can double my money either by folding it in half or siding with
> the Fed for a short term. Is "C" another, I'm too conservative &
> I don't think anyone has a handle yet on what the short term fixes
> will "yeild", though I am very curious how folks intend to "repair"
> Citi 1st before I'll focus on the charts/price/ect. If anyone has
> more info on the overhaul, I hope they bring it out into the open.

How the NYSE Trading Floor Prevented a Big, Erroneous Trade Today

Thanks for this insight. Why don't you write some more about the Market Makers and their roles. That would be fascinating.

Has the Dollar Hit a Major Bottom?

You all share many of my own concerns and doubts about the Elliot Wave Theory and Prechter's work. Like we're seeing this morning, the exchange specialists and insiders know how to "focus the news" to cause whatever they want to either go down or rally, so they can either accumulate positions at low prices, sell high, short whatever is overpriced, and drive whatever much lower so they can buy-to-cover those short positions and again begin building up their positions at low, bargain-basement prices. Once we can recognize how and when "they" are doing this, we can ride their coattails to some very profitable results.

6 Ways to Play Clean Energy

Your comments are not only educational but fascinating. They never cease to reward me for writing my articles (except when I write one that isn't very helpful and/or doesn't evoke many responses). Thank you all for weighing in on this important topic.

UNG Gets SEC Green Light; Still Waiting for CFTC

Michael's article is important. UNG is trading more like a closed-end fund, but if they are allowed to significantly increase the number of shares to get rid of that 3% premium and better reflect the price of NG, we could see a nice accumulation opportunity open up. The two comments before mine do a good job of showing that NG prices are ephemeral.

Caraco Pharmaceutical: Underappreciated and Undervalued, Part 2

The generic drug sector is very promising. This article and its thoroughness is very helpful. Thank you Pakiya

What Really Moves the Stock Markets (And How to Take Advantage)

Your comments add the extra dimension to every article written. Your points are well taken. Remember though, the "Big Smart Money" doesn't usually invest any time with stocks that don't have a big enough market cap, so if you're following their lead you want to stay with nothing smaller than a mid-cap stock. That is why lately I've been nibbling on companies like NYX, AA, and CHK.


On Aug 11 11:05 AM tc1 wrote:

> Thank you for a provocative and insightful article, Marc.
>
> I think that, in addition to following the major short- to medium-term
> trends set by Big Smart Money (the "powers that be" to whom you allude
> in your article), there's a lot to be said for 1) taking a "risk-expendable"
> portion of one's portfolio and finding promising small- and micro-cap
> companies in which to invest for growth and value, as well as 2)
> deploying a "contrarian" approach and picking up shares in good companies
> that get temporarily hammered by a broad sector sell-off, a somewhat
> poor earnings report, or a dilutive stock offering. I've seen too
> many companies hammered down 10% or 40% in a day or over a period
> of days, who then zoom back up within a few days or weeks or even
> within just one trading session. If you're willing to put in a fairly
> substantial amount of $$s, such short term 10-40% gains can add up
> quite nicely over time.
>
> And all of this profitability can happen "outside the trend du jour"
> being set by Big Smart Money.

Gold Pierces Through 'Resistance'

Incidentally, I'm very excited about the new Silver ETF from Europe that trades in the US under the symbol SIVR. Michael Johnston, who is also an S.A. author, has just written some helpful articles about SIVR. Silver will most likely outperform gold over the next year in my humble opinion. Good fortune to us all!


On Aug 05 11:03 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> On the other hand the dollar and gold aren't always in lockstep opposition.
> You may have a chance to buy lower, of course, but in the long run
> it probably won't matter significantly. Unless you're buying enormous
> quantities. And in what form?

3 ETFs For Newsweek's 'Recovery'

Thanks for these insights Michael. I'm excited about the solar sector and KWT. I interviewed the CEO of a company that manufactures thin-film solar cells and I'll turn it into an article soon. I'll be following you from this point on so keep the good articles coming. Cheers!

ETF Securities' New Silver Trust Is a Raging Success

Thanks Michael for bringing this to our attention. The transparency factor in SIVR is also very encouraging.

Why Gold Could Hit $1,300 This Year

I agree about silver being the better investment from an upside potential standpoint


On Aug 04 06:23 PM Freya wrote:

> I turned cautious at the end of June, when the right shoulder started
> extending. The Chart Is bullish, but the right shoulder has become
> worrisome.
>
> However, I do think the fall in the USD will help push it through
> $1,000. After that a measured move should take it to $1,300 eventually.
>
>
> The initial punch through may stall around $1,100 because of the
> way, I believe the right shoulder is structured.
>
> Anyway, thats the way I look at it.
>
> Please consider this too. A Gold/Silver Ratio of 50 would put Silver
> at $22. Considering where Silver is now, you will get more leverage
> from it.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

Great points Andrew. What other ETF besides UNG would you use for natural gas trading? Thank you.


On Jul 30 12:13 PM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Given that this current market has priced so many stocks at way-over-the-top
> levels, it's hard to find an investment that can reasonably be expected
> to perform well over the next 12 to 24 months or so: natural gas
> (and I also suggest gold) is one of them. Buy an unleveraged ETF
> - and UNG is not the only one out there - and add to it on the dips:
> they will be really good trades overall over the next year or two.
> Also, the price volatility permits trading in and out if you have
> a shorter time horizen, and leveraged ETF are also out there for
> those with a more adventurous nature.
>
> Disclosure: long natural gas.