Marc Courtenay

Gold Pierces Through 'Resistance'

Incidentally, I'm very excited about the new Silver ETF from Europe that trades in the US under the symbol SIVR. Michael Johnston, who is also an S.A. author, has just written some helpful articles about SIVR. Silver will most likely outperform gold over the next year in my humble opinion. Good fortune to us all!


On Aug 05 11:03 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> On the other hand the dollar and gold aren't always in lockstep opposition.
> You may have a chance to buy lower, of course, but in the long run
> it probably won't matter significantly. Unless you're buying enormous
> quantities. And in what form?

ASA Limited: A Closed-End Fund Worth More than Meets the Eye

Thank you Texpat for taking the time to elaborate on ASA and give your perspective.


On Jun 07 09:32 AM texpat wrote:

> Here are their holdings as of Feb 28, 2009: GOLD 13.0%, NCMGY 9.6%,
> GG 9.0%, ABX 8.1%, AEM 7.8%, AU 7.3%, BVN 7.3%, GFI 6.4%, AGPPY 4.6%,
> KGC 4.6%, NEM 4.6%, IMPUY 4.6%, NG (including warrants and notes)
> 4.5%, AAUK 3.4%, GLD 1.8%, HMY 1.6%, LNMIY 1.1%, other 0.7%.
>
> There's not much in there that's hard for retail investors to acquire.
> Even most of the ADRs (the aaaaY symbols) trade a reasonable volume.
>
>
> One probable reason for the discount is that the holdings are a dog's
> breakfast. There's hedging risk (NCMGY, ABX, AU, and probably others),
> a ton of South African political and infrastructure risk (GOLD, AU,
> GFI, AGPPY, IMPUY, AAUK, HMY, LNMIY), and a 10.3% position in platinum
> miners (AGPPY, IMPUY, LNMIY) that many gold investors would see as
> misplaced. In the past decade, nothing much has changed. The focus
> is still on majors, with a significant South African weighting and
> an exposure to platinum.
>
> There's also the PFIC problem, a draconian, protectionist feature
> of the labyrinthine US tax system that ASA at least deserves credit
> for, for highlighting to investors.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Well, at least I made you stop and think, and I'm sincerely appreciative of your comment. It was a spoof, or a paradoxical way of saying that, although I'm not sure if we will see a commodities correction between now and November, I'm sure hoping for one. I also attempted to find a unique way to make the point that we all should be hedged both directions since no one knows for sure. There are plenty of articles on the "fundamentals". I wanted to focus on preparing for the uncertainties. My March 8th article was another of my lame attempts to use humor and irony to point out that we should expect a turnaround in the plunging markets at that time. I sensed it was coming soon (a bear market rally), but it came right away and I lucked out there. That's the "missing link" :)


On May 16 12:18 PM Missing_Link wrote:

> I'm not sure I understand this article; I'm not sure whether you're
> being sarcastic, being sarcastic about being sarcastic, or simply
> telling the truth. The article goes into a lot about how you made
> a call on March 8 that, according to you, actually drove the market
> in the opposite direction, and now you plan to change the market's
> direction again using reverse psychology.
>
> I can't tell if you're trying to be funny or not. In any event,
> it seems like childish nonsense, and I'm disappointed that there's
> no reference to fundamentals here.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Freya, Silverwood, Rick and Done...Thanks for taking the time to give your comments, thoughts and reactions. How about a little feedback on your specific investment plans. That would be appreciated.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Thank you Larry, Donald and Henrique for your comments. I'm hoping my "C.C.Contango" helps to make things happen in the right direction and that we all have a good entry point soon.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

That's correct Old Trader. North American governments only nationalize insurance companies, mortgage companies and banks, or at least we hope that is where they'll stop :)
I'll be following you so please keep your comments and observations coming.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

Today has been interesting when it comes to what is "shining". It is the silver miners who are up the most and gaining by the biggest percentage. HL,SSRI, SLW, and PAAS have gained much more today than GG, AEM, ABX, IAG, or KGC. Is this a harbinger of what is ahead? Probably, and for every dollar I'm investing in gold-related investments going forward I'm inclined to put two dollars into the silver related ones. For less risk, less gain, other than owning the physical asset outright, I like CEF, SLV,andGLD.


On Apr 23 01:31 PM GMiki1 wrote:

> Own both. GG--not overpriced IMHO. Sabina Silver looks good. Owen
> some juniors. The market may be manipulated, yes, but these types
> of stocks will go up. Moreover, deflation is the stage prior to inflation.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

I sure don't blame you. Please make sure that whoever manages your money doesn't have a conflict of interest and is "on the same side of the table" as you are...please.


On Apr 23 08:56 AM too old wrote:

> I agree with this line of thinking but since I am "too Old" I am
> turning over my portfolio to ZACKS for management and know they will
> sell my holdings in ABX, AEM, SLW, SSRI, SLV, GDX, AUY, EGO, IAG,
> PAAS, and AZK. I will continue to hold physical gold and silver.
>

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

It is partly the geopolitical areas where they mine. North American producers like GG and AEM seem to get some kind of "safety premium" geographically. IAG also gets a premium as it is perceived as a "takeover" candidate. Keep the comments coming please!


On Apr 23 10:53 AM GUS100CORRINA wrote:

> A couple of questions for everyone?
>
> Why does AEM, IAG keep coming up as better value over AUY and others?
>
>
> When I look at metrics like P/S, P/CF, P/E, Debt/Equity, etc ...
> AUY is comes to top of all value metrics. Even PEG is much better.
> Why would any one buy AEM which has a P/E nad P/S ratio that is 8
> times AUY. I keep hearing AUY getting knocked on Cramer with comments
> like ... " I just don't like it" ... with not facts behind statement.
> My question is: "What is it you don't like or about which you have
> a concern?"
>
> Is it that analysts just don't like AUY's CEO Peter Marone?
>
> I really don't get it?

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

Carl, I couldn't agree with you more. "It will get worse before it gets better" says our Pres.-elect, and the truth is we have never, and I mean NEVER, seen the likes of this kind of financial/credit crisis in our lifetimes.


On Dec 09 10:45 AM Carl Spackler wrote:

> All of these signals - high VIX, the gurus buying stocks, market
> rising on bad news, etc... have been flashing for 5 months. What
> has that gotten investors - losses. I am always amazed at how many
> people will try to find the bottom of a market only to get hammered
> further. To me, it is the surest sign that there is more room to
> go down.
>
> Too many people still have the psychology that this is another in
> the line of shallow recessions. Wake up folks! This is a one in
> a hundred year event. This is a deep recession. This is a deep
> bear market. Periods such as this when researched show that the
> bottom is in place when we have at least 6 months of trading within
> a narrow range. We hit a new low just last month, so I have not
> seen 6 months of sideways action yet.
>
> Keep on trying to find that bottom. If somehow on your ninth try
> you actually hit it - yipee!!! The smarter money however will hold
> off establishing longs until the market shows signs of stabilizing
> (at any price) for 6 months. Big drops like this take a long time
> to stabilize and do not do it in a month or two, so you have plenty
> of time to get on the bus when it actually gets here, mso what's
> the hurry?

Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks?

Appreciate all the comments, feedback and suggestions. Your input is what makes these articles 3-Dimensional in perspective. I've submitted Part II of this article and hope it will be available here in a day or two. Again, please comment away and share your observations as well.

Painful Surprises and Big Lessons with Precious Metals & Energy

Really good comments all the way around. I'll second the motion about Stephanie writing an article. I'd very interested to read her perspective on "...how these markets work". My best to you all, and go Stephanie!!

What the Fed's Latest Decision Means for Investors

Thanks for all the useful comments and feedback.

Ron Paul's Investment Portfolio

Very interesting and something I would have overlooked. Thanks!