Marc Courtenay

Strategy for Volatile Times: Accumulate

Concerning UNG. Based on today's massive volume and 8% upside move, it seems obvious that UNG and Natural Gas wants to breakout to the upside. Perhaps it won't be straight up, but it could be. Hope you all were ready, but frankly I still believe it isn't too late. Be in good health and prosper my friends!!

ASA Limited: A Closed-End Fund Worth More than Meets the Eye

Thank you Texpat for taking the time to elaborate on ASA and give your perspective.


On Jun 07 09:32 AM texpat wrote:

> Here are their holdings as of Feb 28, 2009: GOLD 13.0%, NCMGY 9.6%,
> GG 9.0%, ABX 8.1%, AEM 7.8%, AU 7.3%, BVN 7.3%, GFI 6.4%, AGPPY 4.6%,
> KGC 4.6%, NEM 4.6%, IMPUY 4.6%, NG (including warrants and notes)
> 4.5%, AAUK 3.4%, GLD 1.8%, HMY 1.6%, LNMIY 1.1%, other 0.7%.
>
> There's not much in there that's hard for retail investors to acquire.
> Even most of the ADRs (the aaaaY symbols) trade a reasonable volume.
>
>
> One probable reason for the discount is that the holdings are a dog's
> breakfast. There's hedging risk (NCMGY, ABX, AU, and probably others),
> a ton of South African political and infrastructure risk (GOLD, AU,
> GFI, AGPPY, IMPUY, AAUK, HMY, LNMIY), and a 10.3% position in platinum
> miners (AGPPY, IMPUY, LNMIY) that many gold investors would see as
> misplaced. In the past decade, nothing much has changed. The focus
> is still on majors, with a significant South African weighting and
> an exposure to platinum.
>
> There's also the PFIC problem, a draconian, protectionist feature
> of the labyrinthine US tax system that ASA at least deserves credit
> for, for highlighting to investors.

Royal Bank of Scotland Comments on Metals and Energy

Good and very helpful comments here. Thanks History Buff. I'm going to check out whether some of the ETFs are structured as partnerships. Your points are well taken and deserve serious consideration.
Larry House, your preference for companies like CVX, COP, XOM, RIG, and SLB means you are more focused on fundamentals than diversity. That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Williemo: You wrote, " You comment that you are expecting some seasonal selling and a surprise pullback may occur, seems to indicate you are expecting midterm weakness in these metals before any longer term up trend. If so, it might be nice to see a future article or comment from you on the best entry point, as now doesn't appear to be one" and you are "Spot on!"
All I can tell you is that gold below $860 and silver below $12 per ounce should look pretty cheap a couple of years from now. I like to do a systematic buy-in program where I find the support levels (like $860 and $820 for gold) and then I accumulate on the way down. Historically it is very possible we will see declines between June and October, but I can't help but sensing that "this year could be different", but as a longer-term investor I wouldn't count on it.


On Apr 30 09:36 AM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> Marc, a quick note here. You might want to make people aware that
> some of these instruments (I am thinking specifically of USO) are
> structured as partnerships, which means they can generate taxable
> gains and losses even if you do not sell your holdings. This worked
> out to my benefit last year (USO shifted an unrealized loss at year
> end into 2008 which I then used to offset some of my gains) but it
> could be an unpleasant surprise if it generated a taxable gain when
> you weren't expecting one.
>
> It may also make your taxes a bit more complicated since I believe
> Schedule K needs to be filled out. Not a big deal most of the time,
> but just something for people to be aware of.

All That Glitters Isn't Gold--Watch Out for the Fake Stuff

Thanks for your comments. I can't stress enough that before you buy the physical coins or bars that you make sure you are dealing with a reputable dealer that you've checked out carefully.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

That's correct Old Trader. North American governments only nationalize insurance companies, mortgage companies and banks, or at least we hope that is where they'll stop :)
I'll be following you so please keep your comments and observations coming.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

Today has been interesting when it comes to what is "shining". It is the silver miners who are up the most and gaining by the biggest percentage. HL,SSRI, SLW, and PAAS have gained much more today than GG, AEM, ABX, IAG, or KGC. Is this a harbinger of what is ahead? Probably, and for every dollar I'm investing in gold-related investments going forward I'm inclined to put two dollars into the silver related ones. For less risk, less gain, other than owning the physical asset outright, I like CEF, SLV,andGLD.


On Apr 23 01:31 PM GMiki1 wrote:

> Own both. GG--not overpriced IMHO. Sabina Silver looks good. Owen
> some juniors. The market may be manipulated, yes, but these types
> of stocks will go up. Moreover, deflation is the stage prior to inflation.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

I sure don't blame you. Please make sure that whoever manages your money doesn't have a conflict of interest and is "on the same side of the table" as you are...please.


On Apr 23 08:56 AM too old wrote:

> I agree with this line of thinking but since I am "too Old" I am
> turning over my portfolio to ZACKS for management and know they will
> sell my holdings in ABX, AEM, SLW, SSRI, SLV, GDX, AUY, EGO, IAG,
> PAAS, and AZK. I will continue to hold physical gold and silver.
>

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

It is partly the geopolitical areas where they mine. North American producers like GG and AEM seem to get some kind of "safety premium" geographically. IAG also gets a premium as it is perceived as a "takeover" candidate. Keep the comments coming please!


On Apr 23 10:53 AM GUS100CORRINA wrote:

> A couple of questions for everyone?
>
> Why does AEM, IAG keep coming up as better value over AUY and others?
>
>
> When I look at metrics like P/S, P/CF, P/E, Debt/Equity, etc ...
> AUY is comes to top of all value metrics. Even PEG is much better.
> Why would any one buy AEM which has a P/E nad P/S ratio that is 8
> times AUY. I keep hearing AUY getting knocked on Cramer with comments
> like ... " I just don't like it" ... with not facts behind statement.
> My question is: "What is it you don't like or about which you have
> a concern?"
>
> Is it that analysts just don't like AUY's CEO Peter Marone?
>
> I really don't get it?