Marc Courtenay

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

Carl, I couldn't agree with you more. "It will get worse before it gets better" says our Pres.-elect, and the truth is we have never, and I mean NEVER, seen the likes of this kind of financial/credit crisis in our lifetimes.


On Dec 09 10:45 AM Carl Spackler wrote:

> All of these signals - high VIX, the gurus buying stocks, market
> rising on bad news, etc... have been flashing for 5 months. What
> has that gotten investors - losses. I am always amazed at how many
> people will try to find the bottom of a market only to get hammered
> further. To me, it is the surest sign that there is more room to
> go down.
>
> Too many people still have the psychology that this is another in
> the line of shallow recessions. Wake up folks! This is a one in
> a hundred year event. This is a deep recession. This is a deep
> bear market. Periods such as this when researched show that the
> bottom is in place when we have at least 6 months of trading within
> a narrow range. We hit a new low just last month, so I have not
> seen 6 months of sideways action yet.
>
> Keep on trying to find that bottom. If somehow on your ninth try
> you actually hit it - yipee!!! The smarter money however will hold
> off establishing longs until the market shows signs of stabilizing
> (at any price) for 6 months. Big drops like this take a long time
> to stabilize and do not do it in a month or two, so you have plenty
> of time to get on the bus when it actually gets here, mso what's
> the hurry?

Gold and Silver Prices Will Begin to Shine

Pumping trillions of dollars into the monetary system is historically and eventually an inflationary stimulus (loads of money chasing goods and services). I lived through the stagnant 1970s and I saw what inflation can do . The classic definition of inflation is more accurately involved with the eroding purchasing power of the paper currency. In time that means gold and silver goes up, up and away...probably sooner than later


On Dec 05 09:24 AM Marp wrote:

> Gold doesn't pay any interest. The Fed funds are no their way to
> achieve that objective,too. Plus the Feds are busy printing trillions
> of dollars of new debt. I guess paper , historically, is a better
> storage of value. Or isn't it?

Gold and Silver Prices Will Begin to Shine

First, I try to follow my "mentors" suggestions which have been correct more times than they have been incorrect. In this unprecedented derivatives and credit crises, all we have are "clues". Secondly, AUY and many other well-managed miners tend to trade in ranges and there have been many opportunities to "buy low and sell high" in shorter periods of time. Lastly, no one I've heard of and follow was able to anticipate how badly the resource stocks would be decimated. Seeking Alpha isn't a forum for authors to "pump
their own holdings" but a place to share ideas and compare our investment strategies and experience. It should be a way of networking with other investors and learning from each other.

On Dec 05 05:22 AM Marketer25 wrote:

> This fellow's comments ought to come with a warning message. That
> being he hasn't got a clue.
> Yes, I know this "comment" section is not a forum to discredit authors
> but nor should authors use Seeking Alpha to relentlessly and desperately
> try to pump their own holdings.
> For the record, I do not own AUY but this fellow does and has been
> recommending it all the way down.

Opportunities Abound in Gold and International Assets

Day two of the precious metals rally is now history. A pullback would be normal, but whether there is a day three ahead will be very telling. The US dollar needs a correction for a month or so. Best Wishes and Happy Thanksgiving to all.