Marc Courtenay

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

Carl, I couldn't agree with you more. "It will get worse before it gets better" says our Pres.-elect, and the truth is we have never, and I mean NEVER, seen the likes of this kind of financial/credit crisis in our lifetimes.


On Dec 09 10:45 AM Carl Spackler wrote:

> All of these signals - high VIX, the gurus buying stocks, market
> rising on bad news, etc... have been flashing for 5 months. What
> has that gotten investors - losses. I am always amazed at how many
> people will try to find the bottom of a market only to get hammered
> further. To me, it is the surest sign that there is more room to
> go down.
>
> Too many people still have the psychology that this is another in
> the line of shallow recessions. Wake up folks! This is a one in
> a hundred year event. This is a deep recession. This is a deep
> bear market. Periods such as this when researched show that the
> bottom is in place when we have at least 6 months of trading within
> a narrow range. We hit a new low just last month, so I have not
> seen 6 months of sideways action yet.
>
> Keep on trying to find that bottom. If somehow on your ninth try
> you actually hit it - yipee!!! The smarter money however will hold
> off establishing longs until the market shows signs of stabilizing
> (at any price) for 6 months. Big drops like this take a long time
> to stabilize and do not do it in a month or two, so you have plenty
> of time to get on the bus when it actually gets here, mso what's
> the hurry?