Marc Courtenay

The Stock Market's Illusion

Whoops! Thanks for pointing that out !


On Jun 09 10:20 AM naidle wrote:

> Hate to be that guy but it's not "loosing" but instead "losing".

The Stock Market's Illusion

Thank you Gyoza for your comments and I share your concerns. Having a great deal of cash right now and remaining more "market neutral" is a sensible approach. I'm turning into a Black Swan investor which is the subject of a special report I just completed.


On Jun 09 07:43 AM Gyoza Mimi wrote:

> The market now reminds of a massive pump-and-dump scheme with the
> indexes inflated artificially at the end of each trading day. The
> rally appears to be hollow and the more it goes up, the more it will
> have to deflate eventually. I believe the goal is to lure the retail
> investors, hoping that that economy will be revived by the stock
> market entering a virtuous cycle where good news bring more investments,
> which is a good news that brings even more investments and so on.
>
>
> Personally, I am all cash, not willing commit to either direction.
> On one hand it is more and more obvious that the rally is not sustainable
> and being long when everyone runs for the door is not the best situation.
> At the same time, I am not sure how much pumping can be done (after
> all we already had 14 successful weeks of it) and how much pain can
> be inferred through shorting.
>
> Thanks.

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

Good spot. Thanks for bringing this to our attention


On Dec 04 02:39 PM Pipo wrote:

> Watch a good video interview with Freeport McMoran CEO, where he
> discusses current conditions.
>
> ceotalk.blogspot.com/

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

Sometimes I feel like I'm contradicting myself, but your comment reminds me that there is a strong possibility we haven't yet seen the mother of all "capitulation selling" and the bottom that many think we've put in. There's just as strong a chance that we might have a bear market rally here first and then the "big test" on the downside.


On Dec 04 09:41 PM cruiser9805 wrote:

> BTW, i feel like another correction is in the making, not gloom and
> doom, just too many people calling a bottom and traders with too
> many shorts. Too many people feeling rosy and cherry about a recovery,
> no panic just calculated risk. With these factors combined....i just
> do not know.

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

You may be right, but there's too much money being printed and the financial "pump" being primed for me to believe deflation will last more then another year. Does Bernanke and crew really fear deflation more than inflation? That is the big question.


On Dec 04 09:37 PM cruiser9805 wrote:

> Personally i believe we are in a deflationary environment and it
> will be a long time before we see the light at the end of the tunnel.
> Now would be the time to pick up midcaps that make end products,
> like refrigerators and commercial vehicles. I like KGC but i much
> prefer chinese miners with gold exposure like Zijin, which by the
> way, is picking up mines left and right in SA and Africa. 1.4 billion
> people becoming middle class? i like the odds :)

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

I sincerely appreciate what you shared here with all of us. I want to carefully consider your suggestions.


On Dec 04 03:07 PM drbob66 wrote:

> "What lessons have you learned about investing in the stock market
> from your mistakes as well as your successes? "
>
> Sorry, Marc...I can't help you out there. Just this week I learned
> that I should've bought NYX yesterday. And so far this year, all
> I've learned is that it's possible to lose a lot of money in the
> stock market.
>
> Seriously, though, my best trades this year have been in financials
> (C, STT, NLY, GE)...nice panic sell-offs and good bounces. As for
> investments, well...ask me again in a year or two. Maybe FCX will
> be >$18 by then.
>
> "how about some comments about your best investment choices and favorite
> stocks."
>
> At the moment, I like FLR, WLT, NLY, UTX, MRK, BA, RIG. And CHC is
> my most recent "Phoenix stock" (bought at $0.15)
>

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

I'm impressed with the TC idea. Very nice balance sheet and cash flow statement. It would be helpful to know what their cash "burn rate" is and how their fourth quarter turns out. Thanks for suggesting it.


On Dec 04 02:24 PM fran wrote:

> for moly, long term[and its utilization should only grow significantly],
> would you consider TC as pure play? its cash and debt levels together
> with flexibility in resouce options should hold it in the running
> for the future. any views on this?
>
>
> On Dec 04 12:35 PM Marc Courtenay wrote:

Time to Switch Out of Freeport-McMoRan

I'm grateful for you comments. After I sold FCX I decided to buy some shares of NYX at around $18.54. Today, the next day, last I checked they were at $20.76 and FCX was trading around $18. FCX will probably weather the storm and do fine in the long-term. Now, how about some comments about your best investment choices and favorite stocks? Which companies do you think are best poised to grow and thrive over the next 12 months? What lessons have you learned about investing in the stock market from your mistakes as well as your successes? Aren't we all trying to help one another improve our results? That's the beauty of a site like Seeking Alpha.

Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II

Thanks for your responses and the "wish list" ideas.
Clavis, if what you are saying is to invest with your conscience, I couldn't agree more. For instance, some of my close friends will only own the hard, physical precious metals (coins, bars kept in safe storage) and are morally opposed to buying the mining stocks. I'd prefer not to be judgmental about it and instead to encourage a sense of personal, moral conviction about how we invest our money.
Camquin, thanks for the connection to Jim Welsh's article. One of the things he said really resonated with me;
"The short term could prove tricky though, since the Dollar may have one more push above last week's high. If this develops, I would expect the Euro, Gold, and oil to make one more new low beneath their lows last week, before a solid rebound begins."
This is entirely possible and that's why it is smart to keep some cash available for that opportunity if it arises. GDX is a smart way to diversify among the big producers, but it might not have the same upside results as two or three carefully chosen, financially sound companies.
Buying some now makes sense, and being ready for a retest of the lows and a chance to buy more at lower prices also makes sense. I wish all of you a happy labor day weekend, good investment results, and most of all, peace of mind. Regards, Marc

Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II

Wish more of you would weigh in on your favorite gold and silver stocks, seniors, mid-tiers and juniors. It would be helpful to know which ones are on your "wish list" too.
The Seeking Alpha community can be very constructive if we allow it to be and if we stay focused on sharing ideas, concepts and useful suggestions. I hope my articles will spawn more mutually enriching investment themes and insights. Thanks for being a reader and for contributing your comments. Good fortune to each of you, Marc

Why Mining & Metal Investments Could Shine in the Coming Years

A thorough analysis and I must agree with you on the price of mining stocks relative to the metals prices. Silver and silver stocks looks the most promising. As for junior I feel safer with those having great leadership and proven resources like Canplats, Jinshan Gold and Silvercorp Metals, which has taken a real pounding in the last week despite announcing record earnings, with EPS up 173% over last year.

Alcoa Will Shine - Barron's

Very helpful report, Eli. I like your less wordy, direct-to-the-point writing style too.
I've been burned twice by buying AA, and the current market volatility leads me to believe we all might have a better entry point (below $35) between now and November. Speculation and unexpected developments like takeover rumors could drive it up short-term instead of down, so maybe a more prudent approach is to get half a position soon and hope to buy the other half later.