Marc Courtenay

Has the Dollar Hit a Major Bottom?

You all share many of my own concerns and doubts about the Elliot Wave Theory and Prechter's work. Like we're seeing this morning, the exchange specialists and insiders know how to "focus the news" to cause whatever they want to either go down or rally, so they can either accumulate positions at low prices, sell high, short whatever is overpriced, and drive whatever much lower so they can buy-to-cover those short positions and again begin building up their positions at low, bargain-basement prices. Once we can recognize how and when "they" are doing this, we can ride their coattails to some very profitable results.

Gold Pierces Through 'Resistance'

Incidentally, I'm very excited about the new Silver ETF from Europe that trades in the US under the symbol SIVR. Michael Johnston, who is also an S.A. author, has just written some helpful articles about SIVR. Silver will most likely outperform gold over the next year in my humble opinion. Good fortune to us all!


On Aug 05 11:03 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> On the other hand the dollar and gold aren't always in lockstep opposition.
> You may have a chance to buy lower, of course, but in the long run
> it probably won't matter significantly. Unless you're buying enormous
> quantities. And in what form?

Could Ownership of Companies Like Silver Wheaton Be Outlawed?

Thanks. Good idea.


On May 25 09:12 AM User 305589 wrote:

> you might want to have a closer look at gold wheaton (GLW:seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> It is run by the founders of SLW, basically doing similiar deals
> in gold. They just completed a secondary to finance further growth.
> The stock has lost more than 80% from its high and might offer an
> opportunity to participate in another SLW-like success story right
> from the beginning.
> (disclosure: I own a small position in GLW and might increase that
> stake over the next weeks/months)

Where Can We Make Profits?

You're so right Obi-Wan, market timing is a high risk game. My plan is more about "market hedging" and "not fighting the tape"


On May 19 08:41 AM Obi-Wan wrote:

> You do make it sound easy! But what you are talking about here when
> you boil it down is market timing. And if 'the experts' were no
> good at that during the last 18 mos when they all got creamed along
> with us, don't see that changing much.....

Where Can We Make Profits?

Thanks for what you wrote toobad41. Most investors can only handle one sector of the market and should follow K.I.S.S. which is Keep It Successfully Simple. What you wrote is very wise indeed!


On May 19 09:11 AM toobad41 wrote:

> The old adage of "if you don't know where you are going you will
> end up some place else" is appropriate for investing. You are absolutely
> correct in having a plan. That plan needs to be focused on one segment
> or sector of the market. Become an expert in one area and make that
> your focus. Make that your road map to profitablity. In the distant
> past my investing was like being a "grasshopper" jumping from stocks
> to bonds to commodities...hoping to hit on something big. That does
> not work. If your interest is in oil commodities, REIT's, banking,
> pork bellies, corporate bonds, or whatever make one a focus and learn
> everything you can about that which really interests you. Then once
> you have a tremendous amount of knowledge in your chosen area of
> interest you build your plan to make a profit. Never, ever be a
> grasshopper. Stick to one area of interest and reap the rewards.
> Forget the rest, don't follow the crowd.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Well, at least I made you stop and think, and I'm sincerely appreciative of your comment. It was a spoof, or a paradoxical way of saying that, although I'm not sure if we will see a commodities correction between now and November, I'm sure hoping for one. I also attempted to find a unique way to make the point that we all should be hedged both directions since no one knows for sure. There are plenty of articles on the "fundamentals". I wanted to focus on preparing for the uncertainties. My March 8th article was another of my lame attempts to use humor and irony to point out that we should expect a turnaround in the plunging markets at that time. I sensed it was coming soon (a bear market rally), but it came right away and I lucked out there. That's the "missing link" :)


On May 16 12:18 PM Missing_Link wrote:

> I'm not sure I understand this article; I'm not sure whether you're
> being sarcastic, being sarcastic about being sarcastic, or simply
> telling the truth. The article goes into a lot about how you made
> a call on March 8 that, according to you, actually drove the market
> in the opposite direction, and now you plan to change the market's
> direction again using reverse psychology.
>
> I can't tell if you're trying to be funny or not. In any event,
> it seems like childish nonsense, and I'm disappointed that there's
> no reference to fundamentals here.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Freya, Silverwood, Rick and Done...Thanks for taking the time to give your comments, thoughts and reactions. How about a little feedback on your specific investment plans. That would be appreciated.

Time for the 'Commodities Contrarian Contango' with Precious Metals and Energy

Thank you Larry, Donald and Henrique for your comments. I'm hoping my "C.C.Contango" helps to make things happen in the right direction and that we all have a good entry point soon.

Royal Bank of Scotland Comments on Metals and Energy

Good and very helpful comments here. Thanks History Buff. I'm going to check out whether some of the ETFs are structured as partnerships. Your points are well taken and deserve serious consideration.
Larry House, your preference for companies like CVX, COP, XOM, RIG, and SLB means you are more focused on fundamentals than diversity. That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Williemo: You wrote, " You comment that you are expecting some seasonal selling and a surprise pullback may occur, seems to indicate you are expecting midterm weakness in these metals before any longer term up trend. If so, it might be nice to see a future article or comment from you on the best entry point, as now doesn't appear to be one" and you are "Spot on!"
All I can tell you is that gold below $860 and silver below $12 per ounce should look pretty cheap a couple of years from now. I like to do a systematic buy-in program where I find the support levels (like $860 and $820 for gold) and then I accumulate on the way down. Historically it is very possible we will see declines between June and October, but I can't help but sensing that "this year could be different", but as a longer-term investor I wouldn't count on it.


On Apr 30 09:36 AM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> Marc, a quick note here. You might want to make people aware that
> some of these instruments (I am thinking specifically of USO) are
> structured as partnerships, which means they can generate taxable
> gains and losses even if you do not sell your holdings. This worked
> out to my benefit last year (USO shifted an unrealized loss at year
> end into 2008 which I then used to offset some of my gains) but it
> could be an unpleasant surprise if it generated a taxable gain when
> you weren't expecting one.
>
> It may also make your taxes a bit more complicated since I believe
> Schedule K needs to be filled out. Not a big deal most of the time,
> but just something for people to be aware of.

All That Glitters Isn't Gold--Watch Out for the Fake Stuff

Thanks for your comments. I can't stress enough that before you buy the physical coins or bars that you make sure you are dealing with a reputable dealer that you've checked out carefully.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

That's correct Old Trader. North American governments only nationalize insurance companies, mortgage companies and banks, or at least we hope that is where they'll stop :)
I'll be following you so please keep your comments and observations coming.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

Today has been interesting when it comes to what is "shining". It is the silver miners who are up the most and gaining by the biggest percentage. HL,SSRI, SLW, and PAAS have gained much more today than GG, AEM, ABX, IAG, or KGC. Is this a harbinger of what is ahead? Probably, and for every dollar I'm investing in gold-related investments going forward I'm inclined to put two dollars into the silver related ones. For less risk, less gain, other than owning the physical asset outright, I like CEF, SLV,andGLD.


On Apr 23 01:31 PM GMiki1 wrote:

> Own both. GG--not overpriced IMHO. Sabina Silver looks good. Owen
> some juniors. The market may be manipulated, yes, but these types
> of stocks will go up. Moreover, deflation is the stage prior to inflation.

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

I sure don't blame you. Please make sure that whoever manages your money doesn't have a conflict of interest and is "on the same side of the table" as you are...please.


On Apr 23 08:56 AM too old wrote:

> I agree with this line of thinking but since I am "too Old" I am
> turning over my portfolio to ZACKS for management and know they will
> sell my holdings in ABX, AEM, SLW, SSRI, SLV, GDX, AUY, EGO, IAG,
> PAAS, and AZK. I will continue to hold physical gold and silver.
>

Invest in Gold Miners, Silver Miners, or Both?

It is partly the geopolitical areas where they mine. North American producers like GG and AEM seem to get some kind of "safety premium" geographically. IAG also gets a premium as it is perceived as a "takeover" candidate. Keep the comments coming please!


On Apr 23 10:53 AM GUS100CORRINA wrote:

> A couple of questions for everyone?
>
> Why does AEM, IAG keep coming up as better value over AUY and others?
>
>
> When I look at metrics like P/S, P/CF, P/E, Debt/Equity, etc ...
> AUY is comes to top of all value metrics. Even PEG is much better.
> Why would any one buy AEM which has a P/E nad P/S ratio that is 8
> times AUY. I keep hearing AUY getting knocked on Cramer with comments
> like ... " I just don't like it" ... with not facts behind statement.
> My question is: "What is it you don't like or about which you have
> a concern?"
>
> Is it that analysts just don't like AUY's CEO Peter Marone?
>
> I really don't get it?

Short Squeeze in Silver - How to Profit

Good reporting Jason and good sources to quote. It wouldn't surprise me to at least see silver test its 2008 high of around $21. Thanks for your article.