Marc Courtenay

TIM Sentiment Report: Brokers More Bullish

Thanks for this insight. As a contrarian I think the TIM report is quite useful. Please keep these reports coming our way.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

As a P.S.: I finally decided to sell my shares of APL on 9/25/09 and replaced that money with shares of EPD. Hope it works out and I'm glad I decided to wait until now.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

I hope you are right, but today there is a bloodbath today in APL on heavy volume. I hope it means some big players are accumulating for the next big run-up. On Yahoo! Finance, their daily interactive chart, there's a big block trade of 82,000 shares at 5.925 four minutes after the opening (9:34am EST) and most of the rest of the down volume for the day from that time has been smaller blocks but a heck of a lot of them. I still have my APL only because I'm betting (and believe me it is a gamble) that those 1 million shares that someone bought today under $6 a share might be worth more down the road. It might be a sucker's bet, so you'll have to figure this out for yourself if you, like me, decided to hold your shares. Let's also hope they resume their dividend payout, as that would help.


On Aug 23 10:47 PM Gary Klahr wrote:

> The big knock on APL had been its debt problem. Since that has been
> alleviated, and they are promising to start dividends again next
> year, I would THINK that there is much more upside at this price.
> APL was a good short in the past--but like C and BAC, now may be
> the time to BUY---when NO ONE wants it. (Who ever thought you could
> QUADRUPLE your $$ in C in 6 weeks or BAC in 3 months??)What fool
> was SELLING GE below 6 that day a few mos ago???

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Yes, I'm aware of the NAV premium, and yes, it does concern me. If UNG figures out a way to issue more shares and units, perhaps we will see some dilution, which might reduce the share price somewhat more in the weeks to come. Today UNG is up over 2% while natural gas is up 5%.


On Aug 23 11:02 AM basehitz wrote:

> Sub $3 NG. Tough to lay off, but a lot of questions.
>
> UNG is at 14% premium to NAV. So far, new units recently allowed
> by SEC have not been issued. Then there’s the potential CTFC new
> position limits. And finally, UNG managers are hedging potential
> new regulations by selling futures and buying swaps, which carries
> it’s own risk.
>
> NG defies many attempts to call a bottom and continues to drift lower.
>
>
> On storage capacity, I built an offline application to try to project
> future storage. Weekly updates from EIA are fed in, and the 3-week
> avg injection projected forward. It currently predicts peak storage
> of 3.789 Bcf as determined by EIA will be reached Oct 23rd.
>
> Weather.com doesn’t show any Atlantic storms currently. But it will
> get wild if one threatens the gulf.
>
> The contango remains ridiculous at 16% as of Friday. The roll period
> was complete Aug 18th, so I would have thought it would back off.
> Instead it ballooned from 12% the prior Friday.
>
> If the market corrects, typically energy moves with it.
>
> That’s a lot of moving parts.
>
> Last week I flipped GAZ a couple trades to avoid some of the above.
> Then they decided to stop issuing new shares also and their premium
> to NAV expanded to 7%. Also too high.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Thanks Andy. Very useful insights and ideas.


On Aug 24 09:09 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> and just to comment.....this has helped me...both from an investing
> and trading stand point.
>
> Jesse Livermoore would let the move happen in the direction he thought
> it would move and then invest.....having immediate gains from an
> investment or trade is easier emotional wise.....even if you are
> right in the long term investment. Seeing those immediate gains confirms
> your choice.
>
> I use range contraction trading methods for trading AND investing
> entries. I also wait for confirmation on the move in the direction
> I think the stock is going to move and make my investment right then
> and there.
>
> For example....BQI is one stock I am watching that is about to break
> out to the upside.......if you see a powerful move upward (which
> is right there) we should see a large move upwards.

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Yes I did. Thanks for the clarification.


On Aug 23 11:22 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> i think the author means 2.50 per million btu/

Nibbling on Natural Gas, Concerned about Atlas Pipeline Partners

Thanks for the ideas and suggestions


On Aug 23 09:07 AM sligoo wrote:

> For safety in numbers AND dividends, check out TYY and FEN. This
> move also lets you avoid the onerous tax problems associated with
> owning master partnerships outright,e.g. APL.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

Great points Andrew. What other ETF besides UNG would you use for natural gas trading? Thank you.


On Jul 30 12:13 PM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Given that this current market has priced so many stocks at way-over-the-top
> levels, it's hard to find an investment that can reasonably be expected
> to perform well over the next 12 to 24 months or so: natural gas
> (and I also suggest gold) is one of them. Buy an unleveraged ETF
> - and UNG is not the only one out there - and add to it on the dips:
> they will be really good trades overall over the next year or two.
> Also, the price volatility permits trading in and out if you have
> a shorter time horizen, and leveraged ETF are also out there for
> those with a more adventurous nature.
>
> Disclosure: long natural gas.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

Some has to do with how powerful and influential the coal industry still is in many parts of the world, especially China. Other factors are traditions, costs and the existing infrastructure, as well as our willingness to put up with coal despite the high amounts of pollution.


On Jul 30 01:30 PM elfie wrote:

> why cant someone explain why most of coal isnt being replaced by
> NG?
>
> is it because of supply/distribution limitations?
> cost (which seems crazy given the carbon reduction benefits)
>
> for some reason I never read why NG isnt used alot more.
>
> thanks

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

Me too. Solar is a big part of the alternative energy solution.


On Jul 30 11:51 AM nakedjaybird wrote:

> And throw natural gas exploration, drilling, transportation, etc.,etc,
> in with the rest of the fossils ...........
>
>
> nakedjaybird: Comments (579) Follow
>
> Yes; go Wal-Mart. As big boxers put their roofs to work they will
> show the power generation world what alternative power can do.<br/>
>
> As soon as the power generators no longer "worry" about sunk costs
> and idled capacity in all their fossil plants, they too will gladly
> go for the
> - no moving parts,
> - corrosion-free
> - low to non-existant maintenace,
> - nearly regulatory- free,
> - basically no-personnel risk (coal mining to nuclear waste if we
> were to include nuc)
> - and finally, basically, enviornmentally clean, throughout (sans
> some sand and Si processing).
>
> Theirs not a power generator around that would not give up mining,
> processing, regs, water-wall repairs, bag houses, slag, generating
> system maintenance (and radiation workers, regs, NRC, etc., etc.,)
> FOR SOME SILENT, CLEAN, SIMPLE, UNCOMPLICATED POWER GENERATION.<br/>
>
> The US Mission should be to teach the rest of the world all this
> instead of trying to sell them the stuff we already make to then
> have them go down the same yellow brick road we have, AND THEN UNDO
> IT!!!!
>
> I'm all for solar on huts in hinderland - (and Wal-Mart rooftops!)..

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

Thanks Ferdinand


On Jul 30 10:49 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> This is not just a good article - it is an important article. The
> comment about 'shale gas' is something that needs to be brought to
> the attention of the decision makers.
>
> As for nuclear, the problem there is fantasies on the part of the
> high and mighty, and of course the voters. They believe that they
> have a 'choice' where energy options are concerned. They do have
> a choice, but more nuclear has to be in the picture. And when they
> figure that out, then nuclear plants will be constructed in 4 or
> 5 years, or less.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

That appears to be a valid conclusion, all other factors being equal.


On Jul 30 09:46 AM fran wrote:

> wouldn't pipeline and other key NG infrastructures be a good place
> to buy? their costs are relatvely fixed vs NG EPs[less exposure
> to shale drilling cost variables]. these rise more directly with
> demand increase.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

UNG is a unique, futures and options oriented ETF. Please make sure you read their prospectus carefully. That being said, if wild speculation that natural gas will be in short supply ever ensues, it should cause UNG to go through the roof. But in the short-term, it's anyone's guess. It is my hope that anyone who buys UNG below $12 will someday be very satisfied, but who knows. Again, read the prospectus very carefully and follow the day-to-day correlation between UNG and natural gas so you can see for yourself whether it has a high degree of reliability or not.


On Jul 30 07:55 AM H. T. Love wrote:

> Marc,
>
> Yesterday, seekingalpha.com/insta...
>
>
> How will this affect UNG? I can't quite decide the likely end-results.
>
>
> HardToLove

Energy Investing: Natural Gas Looks Especially Interesting

I'm grateful for your diligence and clarification Freya, and it underscores the potential opportunity that lies ahead of us. It will be interesting to see how Jason's predictions pan out. Yes, another very cold winter could speed up the process I would think. Regards and thanks again for your help and interest.


On Jul 17 02:07 PM Freya wrote:

> Yes. I was right. The 40 min Bloomberg video has Jason roughly in
> the Middle talking about NG production. He expects a production decline
> by The End of This year in the range of 25-30% and a move up in NG
> prices by the 2nd Qtr of next year because the Inventory overhang
> will mitigate the rise.
>
> Personally, I believe a Cold winter like last year's will drain it
> faster.

Energy Investing: Natural Gas Looks Especially Interesting

I'll say...thanks for this info Basehitz. You've done it again and we benefit.


On Jul 17 09:20 AM basehitz wrote:

> I concur we'll have another swoon, and that I expect to be the buy
> opportunity. Given the negative roll yield, I'm not going in early
> to take a hit each month. The storage situation could create this
> final washout.
>
> From the EIA website, Peak working gas storage capacity as of mid-2008
> is 3,789 Bcf.
> www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oi...
>
>
> As of 7/10, storage was 2,886 Bcf.
>
> NG commonly is injected into storage during April through October
> per EIA. There are 16 weeks from 7/10 thru end Oct. Assume 80 BCF
> injection/week throughout this period. Recently it has been running
> higher. Last year the slope was fairly linear. That would result
> in 1,280 Bcf additional injection before extraction season.
>
> Adding 1,280 Bcf to existing 2,886 Bcf would result in total storage
> of 4,166 Bcf, which is more than EIA estimates can be stored. Even
> if you assume 4 weeks shorter injection period (i.e., ends Oct 2,
> which it won’t), there would be 960 Bcf added for total storage of
> 3,846 Bcf, which is probably manageable but assumes an unrealistic
> end date to injection.
>
> And in spite of dramatic drill rig count reduction, the storage slope
> remains fairly typical.
> www.eia.doe.gov/oil_ga...
>
> Houston, we have a problem.