Marc Courtenay

Royal Bank of Scotland Comments on Metals and Energy

Good and very helpful comments here. Thanks History Buff. I'm going to check out whether some of the ETFs are structured as partnerships. Your points are well taken and deserve serious consideration.
Larry House, your preference for companies like CVX, COP, XOM, RIG, and SLB means you are more focused on fundamentals than diversity. That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Williemo: You wrote, " You comment that you are expecting some seasonal selling and a surprise pullback may occur, seems to indicate you are expecting midterm weakness in these metals before any longer term up trend. If so, it might be nice to see a future article or comment from you on the best entry point, as now doesn't appear to be one" and you are "Spot on!"
All I can tell you is that gold below $860 and silver below $12 per ounce should look pretty cheap a couple of years from now. I like to do a systematic buy-in program where I find the support levels (like $860 and $820 for gold) and then I accumulate on the way down. Historically it is very possible we will see declines between June and October, but I can't help but sensing that "this year could be different", but as a longer-term investor I wouldn't count on it.


On Apr 30 09:36 AM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> Marc, a quick note here. You might want to make people aware that
> some of these instruments (I am thinking specifically of USO) are
> structured as partnerships, which means they can generate taxable
> gains and losses even if you do not sell your holdings. This worked
> out to my benefit last year (USO shifted an unrealized loss at year
> end into 2008 which I then used to offset some of my gains) but it
> could be an unpleasant surprise if it generated a taxable gain when
> you weren't expecting one.
>
> It may also make your taxes a bit more complicated since I believe
> Schedule K needs to be filled out. Not a big deal most of the time,
> but just something for people to be aware of.

Will We See a Big Upward Move in Gold?

Thanks for mentioning your opinion on those two. I'll be watching them with you.


On Dec 14 08:26 PM FUNDRUNNER wrote:

> USU DNN looking ready as well!!

Will We See a Big Upward Move in Gold?

I'm guessing on what "the Fed's leverage" is all about...but I've heard some stories from reliable sources telling me that the Fed does whatever, and I mean whatever it thinks it must do to assert its agenda. Nothing would surprise this author in the current "no oversight" financial environment here in the US>


On Dec 14 11:12 PM JudeJin wrote:

> "What did Gramley mean by "...the Fed's leverage"? That would suggest
> that the Fed not only owns "gold certificates" but also future contracts
> and options on futures. "
>
> i hope the author could interpret the "fed's leverage" correctly.
> i think the fed's leverage is the same debt-to-equity ratio on the
> balance sheet of any corporation, not the futures/options play the
> fed might have.
>
> although i'm also bullish on gold, i do wish all the gold bugs don't
> mis-interpret other people's remarks.
>

Will We See a Big Upward Move in Gold?

Thanks. Jim is usually right sooner or later.


On Dec 15 06:17 AM Simmons wrote:

> "I own some gold and if gold goes down I'll buy some more and if
> gold goes up I'll buy some more," ... "Gold during the course of
> the bull market, which has several more years to go, will go much
> higher" Jim Rogers
>
> Jim is very bullish on gold, he is prediction huge inflation down
> the road.
>
> jimrogers-investments..../
>

Will We See a Big Upward Move in Gold?

Thanks for your comments. The "wild card" over the next few months will be how much the world believes we are still in "deflation" and how much downside manipulation the "big players" exert on to the precious metals markets.


On Dec 14 06:03 PM Robert Nabloid wrote:

> I take a longer term view and prefer not to use leverage (though
> I have done so a few times).
>
> Please look back in history and show me a good fiat currency. Why
> was gold at one time $42?
>
> I don't consider gold an investment, but a store of wealth. Is it
> the best store of wealth? I don't know, but it works a lot better
> than stuffing fiat dollars under the mattress or in a bank account.
>
>
> "I firmly believe that there will be a trading range for all the
> better commodity stocks and ETFs that will give us several chances
> to buy low and sell high over the months directly ahead. Your comments
> on that will be appreciated. Happy holidays to you all."
>
> I don't see the price of gold crashing anytime soon if that's what
> your asking, so if you are a trader looking to get in and out, perhaps
> after December 31 I would expect the dollar to get weaker. I'm not
> 100% sure but I was under the impression that many companies that
> are based in the US but have international operations like to repatriate
> some of their foreign dollars into USD's for end of year accounting
> purposes? I could be way off and maybe they just use the exchange
> rate on last day of their corporate year end. Either way, I'm expecting
> some bad layoffs in January with most of that data about January
> to be coming out sometime in February. So Between Jan 1 and March
> 1, I think gold should get stronger? I'm only guessing and I'm not
> good at such short time frames. That's why I don't do short-term
> trading.