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Marc Courtenay
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Marc is the founder and owner of Advanced Investor Technologies, LLC, as well as the publisher and editor at the internationally acclaimed web site www.ChecktheMarkets.com. He holds an MS in Clinical Psychology from California Polytechnic State University, and is a former senior vice-president... More
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Advanced Investor Technologies LLC
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  • Gold and Silver Spiking, and The Stock Market May Be Next
    Gold is trying to break through the $1,000 level, and silver has moved up another  5% in one day to a level above $16 an ounce. These are fairly impressive moves over the past two days, and may signal that the market-movers are going to test the higher levels many of us have been waiting for.

    My sources are confirming that there is some major, international buying of precious metals going on, especially in Europe and Asia. Some rumors are also suggesting it's a "just in case", short-term trade reflecting uncertainty about the worldwide economy.

    Chris Vermeulen, who writes at the TheGoldandOilGuy.com, wrote a special report last night which I'll share with you thanks to Chris' permission. Here's what Chris wrote and I'll let you draw your own conclusions:

    "Another crazy week in commodities with precious metals and precious metal stocks surging higher on heavy volume, while natural gas and crude oil move lower. Money seems to be rotating out of energy and into precious metals."

    Spot Gold Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
    Gold jumped higher today breaking out of its 6 month pennant pattern. If prices can hold into the weekend then I expect the $1000 per ounce to be reached quickly. Also Gold stocks took off like rockets, which are a strong sign that gold will follow through on this breakout. It will be interesting to see what happens from here.

    Gold Newsletter

     

    Spot Silver Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
    Silver and silver stocks are shooting higher as well.

    Silver Newsletter

    Silver Newsletter

    Natural Gas – Monthly Trading Chart
    Natural gas continues to trade lower. The good news is that the price of natural gas is now at a major support level, which was formed as far back as 1996. The weekly natural gas chart shows much of the same price action that oil had before reversing to the up side in February of this year. I would not be surprised, if we see buyers stepping into natural gas at this level.

    Natural Gas Newsletter

    Natural Gas Newsletter

    Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart
    Crude oil continues to trade within its bullish wedge pattern. We will be looking for a low risk entry point for oil this month using the daily chart.

    Crude Oil Newsletter

    Crude Oil Newsletter

    Commodity Trading Conclusion:
    Precious metals are showing strength while the energy sector continues to have selling pressure. Gold, silver, natural gas and oil look ready to make big moves in the coming weeks and, being positioned on the right side, will generate some massive profits.

    Staying focused for low risk entry points is important when volatility and emotions are running high. The excitement/stress for traders this week is very high. With precious metals and precious metal stocks breaking out today on massive volume, it has traders excited or in a panic, if they are not positioned yet. To add more fire to the week, natural gas continues to fall, triggering a panic sell reaction by many investors/traders.

    I do like precious metals as a bull play here, but risk is a little higher than I would like. The past couple months precious metals have been jumping around like a yoyo, making it very difficult to find a low risk entry points.

    I know many traders are in serious pain, because they bought natural gas a couple months ago, expecting a rally which did not happen. I would like to mention that I am seriously starting to think about scaling into Natural Gas over the next 1-2 months. Natural gas reminds me of a Canadian fund XTR, which I scaled into last February and am now sitting with a very healthy gain, not to mention a 16% dividend. I feel Nat Gas will pay off huge over the long run, but it will take some time to bottom.

    If you would like to receive Chris' Free Weekly Trading Newsletter or his Trading Signals visit his website at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

    Thanks Chris for some great insights and charts. He is a patient analyst who believes we should wait till a trend is established before jumping onboard.

    As for those of us who are long GLD, SLV, CEF and wish we were long on SIVR, GDX and ASA, this may be the moment we've been waiting for. I am so thankful I held on to some of my shares of IAM Gold (NYSE:IAG).

    Remember, this could also be a "head fake" when it comes to the precious metals, especially if we don't get to the old highs of gold $1034 and silver's recent high above $21. An unexpected pullback could be the next buying opportunity.

    The stock market has "paused to refresh" this week, but everything I've written of late has not changed from my perspective, and I anticipate a resumption of the upside rally over the next couple of weeks. Many investors are still on the sidelines and will be very surprised.

    Recently I've increased my holdings of CHK, PG and EMR.

    One of these days we will see a "blast off" of gold and silver prices that will shock even the bulls. It will be as unexpected and even more dramatic than what we've seen the last couple of days. Will you be ready to benefit from it?

    Disclosure: I'm long GLD, SLV, CEF, CHK, PG, EMR and IAG.

    Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! - Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.


    Sep 03 4:03 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Silver Opportunities Including China
    Yes, I'm very bullish on silver over the long run, for all the reasons you can read about on a hundred different web sites. Relative to the price of gold, silver looks undervalued from an historical perspective.
     
    I read a terrific interview that The Gold Report did with Brien Lundin. As editor of Gold Newsletter, one of the world's oldest and most respected precious metals and mining stock advisories, he should be very knowledgeable. With a transition toward an inflationary environment underway, he figures that the worst of the financial crisis has passed and that the market "generally" will not test new lows.
     
    Today's (July 31) rip-roaring upside bias on both gold, silver and other commodities certainly reinforces this picture.
    He was asked about silver and his favorite silver-junior companies at the present time. How he responded (and we thank The Gold Report for sharing this with us and our readers) has me doing a good bit of research and asking questions:
     
    TGR: "You mentioned silver a bit earlier. Any companies in that sector you care to mention?"

    BL: "Two of my favorites, both producers and great growth stories, are Great Panther Resources ((TSX: GPR)) and Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE:EXK). They are taking historic Mexican projects that have been under-explored over centuries and bringing them into the modern world by applying current exploration and mining methods.

    Another company I like is Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM); it's primarily a Chinese silver play, but is taking a run at Klondex Mines Ltd. (OTCQX:KLNDF) in the U.S. I don't know whether they will be successful, but it's an example of how this very talented management team is looking to expand its base. It's a cash-rich company with a high-growth production profile, so I think we're going to hear a lot from Silvercorp down the road."
    As you know, junior miners, even the producers, can be painfully volatile. "Swim at your own risk" and buy on pull-backs are two pieces of advise I've received on the juniors.

    If you're interested in a China National Gold-backed junior company take a look at Jinshan Gold (JINFF.PK). This is a high-risk and potentially high-reward company, and how they describe themself is as follows:

    Jinshan is a mining company whose principal asset is the CSH gold mine located in Inner Mongolia, China. Jinshan's shares are listed on the Toronto stock exchange under the symbol JIN. China National Gold Corporation, a Chinese state-owned enterprise and the largest gold producer in China owns approximately 41% of Jinshan's shares.

    I own some Jinshan shares which I purchased after China National Gold stepped in. Since then the shares are down over 50% with the credit crisis carnage of the past year. My next "Chinese Junior Miner" will be SVM which I intend to buy on a pull-back.

    Matt Badiali, writing for the Daily Wealth (www.dailywealth.com) gave us all some keen insights about the potential for silver and gold mining in China. He wrote on 7/30/09:

    "Welcoming foreign mining expertise has completely reinvented the nation's [China's] mineral industry. In 1997, China produced just 45.8 million ounces of silver. In 2007 (the most recent data available), it produced 160 million ounces. Its gold production rose 134% over that same period.

    "In other words, the country went from practically no silver or gold production to become the third-largest silver producer and the largest gold producer in the world in less than 20 years – thanks to the government's push.

    "The thing to remember is, while these mining regions have been open to foreign exploration for more than a decade, most of China's enormous wealth of metal is still in the ground.

    "Mines don't appear overnight. Exploration and mine development take years. China's decades-old decision to open its mineral resources to foreign mining companies is just now coming to fruition.

    "And now, China's government is providing an enormous boost to its mining industry: In April, the country's Foreign-Exchange Agency announced the purchase of 16 million ounces of gold for state coffers. It wants to diversify its reserves, replacing some of its U.S. dollars with something tangible – like gold."

    Matt claims that about a dozen publicly-traded companies are "... mining or exploring for China's massive gold and silver deposits. Many of them are plenty risky... and some are complete duds."  So we all have to do very careful due diligence before we nibble on any mining company, especially the juniors.

    Trusted advisor and analyst Ian McAvity ("Deliberations on a World Market" and one of the directors for The Central Fund of Canada, AMEX:CEF) recently reminded readers of silver's potential and the imbalance between the price of silver and gold at the present time.He also reminds us that silver prices are dependent on how gold moves:
     
    "From the mid-1980's, the Silver/Gold ratio has swung from greater than 80:1 to less than 50:1. Currently at 69:1. To translate, if you can switch one ounce of gold for 80 or more ounces of silver, silver is "cheap" relative to gold; and below 50:1, if you can get one ounce of gold for 45 or 50 oz.of silver, gold is the better bargain. Bit silver does tend to need leadership from gold to plan on the upside".
     
    By the way, Ian will be a keynote speaker at the AAPT/IFTA conference in Chicago (http://ifta2009.com) and he'll speak on the last day of the New Orleans Conference (Oct.8-11) www.neworleansconference.com, and he has agreed to speak at the "Toronto Money Show" Oct. 20-22 (http://www.intershow.com). I hope to hear him personally at one of those venues.
    Do not invest any money you can't afford to loose in junior mining stocks. The reason they are sought after by speculators and traders is that they have amazing upside reward potential if chosen successfully (a.k.a. "if you're very lucky"). They can also go bankrupt quicker than you can sneeze.

     

    So diversify, don't put all your eggs in one basket, and know the risks you are taking. If you can't stand much risk, buy companies like Silver Standard Resources (Nasdaq:SSRI), Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) and Pan American Silver (Nasdaq:PAAS) when they've gone "on sale" after some nice pullbacks. Of course there is also SLV, the Silver ETF.

    Take a look at this one-year chart of SSRI with the 50, 100, and 200-day moving average. Do you detect a trend in silver and silver producers? I certainly do, and it looks quite bullish to me. This chart does not include the July 31st upside on SSRI which adds another 4% taking the price up to $19.77.

    Chart for Silver Standard Resources Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ssri' title='Silver Standard Resources, Inc'>SSRI</a>)

     Disclosure: I do own SLV,CEF and JINFF.PK

    Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! - Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.

    Jul 31 1:05 PM | Link | Comment!
  • "FOOD Inc." and Socially-Responsible Investing

    If you believe the old adage "You Are What You Eat" or "Garbage In, Garbage Out" then you will definitely want to see the new documentary FOOD,Inc. After seeing it I believe many people will be very concerned not only what they eat but where the "food" they eat came from.

    The realities of the food-growing and food-processing industries in the United States are as shocking as a B-rated horror movie, especially if you love animals and have a sensitive conscience.

    The popularity of this this movie and the book "Fast Food Nation" by Eric Schlosser will impact the kind of investing that Socially-Responsible Funds like the Pax World Global Green Individual Fund (PGRNX) participate in.

    It might even impact the hoildings of ETFs such as the

      First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Engy (Nasdaq:QCLN)

    As the tagline for FOOD Inc. says, "You'll never look at dinner the same way again" and as far as I'm concerned, if a person sees this movie and is willing to eat  "the same old, same old"  I'll be very surprised.

    Now I warn you, this movie is, "An unflattering look inside America's corporate controlled food industry", and as an investor you might start thinking of companies like McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Burger King Holdings  (NYSE:BKC),Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE:WEN), and Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) as not being fit for a "Socially-Responsible" Investment Fund.

    It will also change your view of companies like Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) Smithfield (NYSE:SFD), ConAgra (NYSE:CAG), and Cargill and it probably doesn't bode well for companies like Monsanto (NYSE:MON) either. You'll have to see the movie to judge for yourself.

     If you'd like to see a trailer of  Food Inc. you can copy and paste the following web address into your brouser ttp://imdb.com/title/tt1286537/ ; This is the home of "The Internet Movie Database" which is a very interesting site and contains a well-written user-comment from a Chris Knipp of Berkeley, CA.  Here's a few paragraphs of what Chris wrote and you can read the entire comment at www.imdb.com/title/tt1286537/.

    "The message of 'Food, Inc.' is that most of what Americans now eat is produced by a handful of highly centralized mega-businesses,and that this situation is detrimental to health, environment, even our very humanity. The ugly facts of animal mistreatment, food contamination, and government collusion are covered up by a secretive industry that wouldn't talk to the filmmakers or let the interiors of their chicken farms, cattle ranches, slaughterhouses, and meatpacking plants be filmed.

    "Informed by the voices and outlook of bestseller authors Eric Schlosser ('Fast Food Nation') and Michael Pollen ('The Omnivore's Dilemma'), this new film is an exposé that offers some hope that things can be made better through grassroots efforts.

    "True, Kenner points out, Monsanto, Smithfield, Perdue, et al. are rich and powerful. But so were the tobacco companies, and if Philip Morris and Reynolds could be fought successfully, so can the food industry. The fact that the vast Walmart [NYSE:WMT] is switching to organic foods because customers want them shows people vote effectively with their pocketbooks every time they buy a meal.

    "Other documentaries have covered this ground before. The 2008 French documentary 'The World According to Monsanto' (2008) focused on how that company, with government support, monopolizes seed planting, and Deborah Koons' 2004 'The Future of Food' went over similar ground.

    Jennifer Abbott and Mark Achbar's sweeping 2003 film 'The Corporation' (2003) touched on Monsanto's monopoly too. In more general terms, the ominous, narration-free German documentary 'Our Daily Bread' (Nikolaus Geyrhalter, 2003) delivered 'Food, Inc.'s' message about dehumanized factory-style food production with a European focus. Richard Linklater's 2006 'Fast Food Nation' grew out of Schlosser's book about how bad and disgusting American fast food is and how it undermines the health. These are all good films, and there are and will be lots more. As this new film mentions, exploitation and malpractice in the meat industry were exposed as far back as Upton Sinclair's 1906 muckraking book, 'The Jungle.'

    "'Food, Inc.' is a populist and practical film that speaks with the voices of farmers, advocates, and journalists, and focuses on food, what's wrong with it, and what we can do about it. Kenner offers lots of practical information and appeals to everyday people. The film goes back to the Fifties to show how the rise of fast food contributed to centralized, less diverse American food production. MacDonald's now much of the chicken, beef, potatoes, and many other foods produced in the country.

    "The film explains that only a handful of companies control not only most of the beef, pork, chicken, and corn produced in the US but most other food products as well. Moreover not only is corn the major feed given to food animals, but a surprising amount of the tens of thousands of products sold at today's supermarket -- that packaged junk racked in the center of the store that Atkins and now Pollen have told us to avoid, are also derived from corn. Because of the way certain food products have government support, hamburgers are cheaper than fresh vegetables. Kenner focuses on a low-income Orozcos who both work and feel forced to rely on fast food meals because they fill them and their kids more economically than fresh produce bought at the market.

    "The new industry has developed chickens that grow bigger faster with more breast meat. They're kept in closed dark pens. The story is the same for all these poor mass produced critters, crammed together in great numbers, filled with antibiotics, deformed, suffering, ankle deep in their own excrement, brutally killed. The film has good footage of the big southern meat producer, Smithfield, showing how the new mega-food industry feeds off of exploited low-wage illegal immigrants who it treats as expendable, just like the animals."

    Thanks to Chris and to The Internet Movie Database for sharing this information and comment with us all. Now here's a question that we all have to ask ourselves:

    If we claim to care about the environment, the health of our planet, and all the creatures that inhabit this irreplaceable biosphere, how can we avoid the responsibility of knowing about this movie (and the book behind it) and acting upon what we have learned?  PLEASE---GO AND SEE THIS MOVIE FOR EVERY GOOD REASON IMAGINABLE.

    Disclosure: The only investment mentioned in this article that I'm long on is the Paxworld fund PGRNX

    Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! - Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.
    Jul 13 1:23 PM | Link | 2 Comments
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