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Marc Djandji, CFA is the Editor-in-Chief of The ASEAN Insider, a subscription-based monthly investment newsletter committed to finding compelling investments backed by powerful structural trends in Southeast Asia. He is also a co-Founder and Partner of ASEAN Strategy Group Ltd., an independent... More
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  • Power Up On Electricity Generating Public Company Ltd.(EGCO:TH; EYGPF:OTC US)

    By Marc Djandji, CFA

    The Electricity Generating Public Company Ltd.(EGCO:TH; EYGPF:OTC US) is the first independent power producer in Thailand registered on May 12, 1992 by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ("EGAT"). The incorporation was part of the Thai government's privatisation initiatives to allow private sector involvement in the development of power projects, and generating electricity power at competitive rates to households and businesses. On March 23, 1994, EGCO was transformed into a public corporation and was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand ("SET") on January 16, 1995.

    As EGCO is structured as a holding company, its main source of revenue comes from dividend income from subsidiaries and share of profits from joint ventures (JVs). These are located in both Thailand and the Asia-Pacific region, with the majority set up across the Southeast Asia region. EGCO Group companies either operate in the power sector with long-term Power Purchase Agreements ("PPA") or conduct other related business.

    We believe that the Company has tremendous potential, particularly in its gradual shift towards its overseas expansion within the Asia-Pacific region. The focus is on the upcoming Boco Rock Wind Farm in New South Wales, Australia, scheduled for completion in February 2015. Also other domestic developments, are important namely the renewable energy sectors which is poised to grow in the ASEAN region, given the amount of support provided through government subsidies, and productivity incentives.

    Value proposition

    1) By the end of June 30, 2013 (2Q13), net profit before foreign exchange gains, excluding the one-time gain on combination recorded during 2Q12 rose to THB2,041 million. This is approximately a 14.0% increase from THB1,760 million during the comparable quarter last year. Power generation, the mainstay of the Group's overall business, rose from THB1,714 million during 2Q12 to approximately THB1,984 million, or approximately 15.8% increase. During 2Q12, EGCO recorded gains from fair value adjustment from Quezon business acquisition worth THB4,310 million, which makes the net profits before FX approximately THB6,100 million. Earnings per share as of three months ending 2Q13 on a pro forma earnings basis came in at THB3.46 per share, versus pro forma THB4.55 per share in the last comparable year on 526.0 million diluted shares for both quarters.

    Some of the key drivers for the Group during the quarter came from revenue gains from its subsidiaries including contributions from BLCP Power Limited ("BLCP") totalling approximately THB280.0 million in operating profits, the top earnings performer. As of ending FY2012, EGCO owns 50.0% of BLCP which owns an IPP coal-fired power plant located in Rayong province. It is a 1,434-MW power plant consisting of two identical 717-MW pulverised coal-fired power units using high quality bituminous imported from Australia. They acts as a primary source of fuel power and sell all electricity to EGAT (Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand) under the 25-year PPA. The long-term nature of the agreement provides a steady source of business, and income.

    During 2Q13, the Company divested 40.0% of its stake in Philippines-based Conal Holding Corporation (Conal) through the sale of its share stake in Conal. As of 2Q13, Conal holds the shares in Alto Power Management Corporation, a management company with Southern Philippines Power Corporation, a 55.0 MW diesel power plant; and Western Mindanao Power Plant Corporation, a 110.0 MW diesel power plant.

    2) The share price remains steady at between THB167.00 to THB123.50 per share based on the 52-week high/low quote. It has not moved significantly beyond THB127.00 per share for the past few months from August to October 2013 despite the various generally positive management outlooks and development plans. This could be seen as a relative stable stock for risk averse investors, and a dividend 'play' as well given that its historical dividend yield rate has been approximately 3.0% to 4.0% annually.

    3) Gearing, measured as net debt to total equity (Total interest-bearing debt less cash divided by total equity) remains low at between 0.1 times to 0.5 times. This provides significant leg room for capital expansions through new electrical grid expansions, acquisitions, etc. without being constrained by negative debt covenants.

    4) Return on equity (ROE) has increased from 9.0% during FY2011 to 17.4% as of FY2012, approximately a two-fold increase. Return on invested capital (ROIC) has also increased approximately eight-folds from 1.4% during FY2011 to 8.4% as of FY2012. However, during FY2012, results were skewed by the approximately THB4.3 million of one-time accounting gain. Excluding the gain, normalised ROE is on par with FY2011 at approximately 9.0%. Normalised ROIC is approximately 2.6%.

    5) On the valuation front, using information obtained from Thomson Reuters, historical P/E (ttm) is approximately 9.3 times and dividend yield is approximately 3.5%. Based on the historical P/E terms, the stock looks relatively undervalued when compared to the average market P/E of around 11.0 to 12.0 times.

    6) Based on information obtained from the Company's website, management as of 2Q13 ending June 30, 2013, announced plans to expand from its current contracted capacity of 4,510.32 MWe, to 6,264.50 MWe over the next few quarters. This will be equivalent to an approximately 38.9% increase. Based on the excerpts from the 2Q13 filings, the expected increase in contracted capacity is coming from EGCO Group's current portfolio. This has 5 under construction power plants, 3 under development projects, and 1 potential project, totalling approximately 1,754.18 MWe in contracted capacity.

    7) The Company currently has 3 local new power plant projects under construction, and 1 overseas plant expansion project. The domestic projects include TP Cogeneration Project (TP Cogen) and SK Cogneneration Project (SK Cogen) located in the Ratchaburi Province, TJ Cogeneration Project (TJ Cogen), and one overseas project located in Quezon, Philippines, which is a coal fire power plant.

    The company is geared towards overseas expansion. There's an approximately two-fold increase in earnings derived from overseas, which was driven by its share acquisition of Quezon Power Plant in the Philippines and the investment in an operating coal mine in Indonesia. We believe that in the long-run, the gradual shift towards overseas expansion will provide additional diversification benefits to the overall Company's business.

    Group structure as of 2Q13

    Electricity Generating Public Company Ltd.

    Source: Company data

    Based on the above illustration on the group structure, the Company receives support from various local and overseas investors, including one of the most prominent ones such as Tokyo Electric Power (TEPDIA or Tepco). Although, Tepco is currently embroiled in its domestic nuclear disaster settlement with the local government authorities, an investment from a relatively well-known Japanese electric grid producer could provide some added benefits. Primarily through potential sharing of nuclear energy technology, and other knowledge transfers that could be used for the latest electric power generation technologies.

    Group's largest shareholders as of FY2012

    (click to enlarge)

    Based on the chart illustration, the Company's largest shareholder is Electrical Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), which was once it's parent owner before the Company had a spin off in 1992, and subsequently listed in 1994. With a substantial stake of approximately 25.4%, it provides some assurance to investors that despite the spinoff exercise, its former parent owner remains confident in the Company's overall direction and strategy through such a sizeable stake in the Company.

    Valuation analysis

    Based on the relatively stable record of paying out dividends at a consistent rate to shareholders, we decided to use a dividend discount model (DDM) framework to conduct a valuation analysis on EGCO Group. Using the quote details obtained from Thomson Reuters, based on a 12-month dividend per share of THB8.25 per share, and a 5-year dividend growth rate of 2.2%, we decided to use a two-step DDM model. This starts from 8.5% growth rate in 2014, peaks at 13.0% growth rate in 2016, followed by a terminal growth rate of 2.0% in 2019.

    Based on historical electrical power grid expansion growth rate of 8.0-9.0% per year we derived our 12-month forward price target of THB128.17 per share. Based on the current price as of October 18, 2013 of THB124.00 per share, this represents a potential increase of approximately 3.2% in the next 12 months. This is barring any idiosyncratic or unforeseen events, including tighter price caps on utility rates charged to households and businesses, regulations, disasters both natural and man-made, etc.

    The current stock price is hovering around THB124.00 since the month of September 2013. In the earnings announcement during August 2013, the price last stood at approximately THB128.00 to THB130.00. Given the low volatility of the stock price since September 2013, we believe that many potential investors are not aware of the relatively significant growth plans which management has put out during its 2Q13 earnings release and subsequent investor presentation. We believe that at the price of THB124.00 per share, the stock price has room to increase further.

    A particular standout from the relative valuation analysis comes from the historical Enterprise value (EV), measured as total market capitalisation, add total interest-bearing debt, less cash and cash equivalents. This increased by approximately 111.2% on a year-over-year (yoy) basis during FY2012 and FY2011, as compared to the historical range of approximately 0.0% to 21.0%. This is quite a significant increment based on a single year during FY2012. However, we caution investors not to be too enthusiastic in reacting to this statistic, as several factors not essentially relating to the stock's overall fundamentals could be in play. However, if the Company continues with the trend of triple digit increases in its EV growth going forward, investors might want to keep a close watch on the potential upside. However, at this time, it is advisable that investors continue to monitor the stock's fundamentals, together with other factors in determining their investment plans.

    Based on the information obtained from Thomson Reuters, the Company looks relatively undervalued when comparing it with its peers using ROE (%), and price-to-book (PB) at 17.5% and 0.97 times. The sector median average is approximately 15.48% and 1.64 times, respectively. Its fellow peer member, Rojana Industrial Park has the highest metrics based on both readings, which is approximately 21.32% for ROE and 1.77 times for price-to-book (PB). It could an indication of some potential value in EGCO based on the peer comparison on a relative basis. (All figures are highlighted in bold on the chart illustration).

    Potential risks that might impact our 12-month forward price target

    Natural and man-made disasters

    The Company has several electric power grid, and coal mining plants located in several 'hot' spots in Indonesia and Philippines, which have been known for earthquakes, typhoons in the case of Philippines, tsunamis, etc. If such natural disasters strike on several of the Company's facilities at a given moment of time, this might result in major disruptions and damages incurred if repairs are not made in a timely fashion to restore the services. Management is aware of such issues, and have since came up with a comprehensive plan that seeks to address them, including the use of backup generators, constant training, preparedness among staff members, and other contingency plans that will hopefully mitigate the severity of the damages incurred.

    Other man-made disasters could be terrorist strikes, political unrest, which in some cases, are uncontrollable. However, management has already put in place stringent surveillance systems, constantly working with the relevant government and law enforcement officials. These ensure that their facilities are not vulnerable to such man-made disasters, and management believes in protecting the social and environmental safety of its communities where most of its facilities are currently operating in.

    Occupational and environmental risks

    Potential occupational and environmental risks include the potential risks associated with the operations of its electric power facilities, including contamination fears, safety codes of conduct not being properly observed, etc. Management has taken steps to ensure such risks are mitigated through mandatory regular health screening requirements for its employees, and regular first-aid safety sessions to all employees to ensure they are properly equipped with the skills needed to protect themselves, and others.

    Management has also taken steps to be actively engaged with the community and the public. Regular educational plant visits and allowing members of the surrounding communities in which they operate to be educated on the Company's operations have been planned. Through such constant engagement, the Company hopes to achieve public support in their business activities, and in the process help educate the community. The Company is also active in raising environmental awareness through talks, participating in environmental sustainability projects, etc.

    Foreign exchange risks

    The Company's main form of currency used in the conduct of their business activities is the Thai Baht (THB). The Company is also currently dealing with three main foreign currencies including the Australian Dollar (AUD), the US Dollar (USD), and the Japanese Yen (JPY). As of 2Q13, total debt outstanding stood at THB39,340.0 million, with the largest foreign currency exposure to the US Dollar at USD 750.0M, followed by Japanese Yen at JPY 314.0M, and the Aussie Dollar at AUD 44.0M.

    Management is actively engaged in hedging its currency exposure by ensuring that at no one point in time, the size of its foreign currency exposure is geared towards a particular type of currency. However, due to the systematic nature and volatilities in the foreign exchange market, the Company continues to be vulnerable to swings in the forex market. Together with other potential credit events, these can be seen as disadvantageous to the overall Company's fundamentals and prospects.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCPK:EGCO.

    Additional disclosure: EGCO:TH; EYGPF:OTC US

    Nov 11 10:39 PM | Link | Comment!
  • DRB-HICOM: Synergies Poised To Kick-In

    By Marc Djandji, CFA

    The Malaysian economy proved resilient to the global recession and has witnessed strong growth in the last couple of years. For 2013, it's expected to again witness a growth rate of ~5% driven largely by strong domestic demand.

    DRB-Hicom (1619.KL) has several catalysts in place to propel it to further growth while providing diversification and reach into various growing sectors of the economy. Best of all, valuations are attractive for a growing conglomerate. At RM2.55, the shares trade at ~18x FY13E consensus EPS of RM0.141, ~10x FY14E consensus EPS of RM0.253, and P/B of 0.7x, which is compelling given the company's long term growth potential. The investment rationale for buying the stock is as follows:

    1. Recent acquisition of Proton and CRTM to boost automotive segment growth:

    Automotive segment with 9M13 reported revenue of RM7.5bn (+188.5%, due to first time Proton consolidation) is the largest of the three business segments with top line contribution of c.77% (9M13). Proton acquisition gave DRB-Hicom a manufacturing and technology platform to become an integrated automotive player in the region and thus to tap future growth opportunities in the automotive sector. Proton's acquisition is currently under a restructuring plan and is expected to become the company's main growth driver. .

    Proton turnaround is focused on rationalizing its supply chain which should help in quality and cost control besides enhancing operational efficiency. Further, the Proton Edgar and EON merger should rationalize distribution network and provide business and cost synergies. New model launches such as Preve Hatchback, Global Small Car, and strategy of penetrating overseas market including Thailand, Indonesia and Australia should further boost growth.

    Proton's presence throughout the industry value chain makes it a preferred local partner for global automotive leaders looking to enter the Malaysian market. For a successful turnaround of Proton, the group needs partners, technology and platforms to exploit its capacity. It's collaboration agreements with Honda, Mercedes Benz, Mitsubishi, Volkswagen AG (VWAG), Suzuki, Isuzu, and Audi offer opportunities to reorganise component manufacturing to upscale its offerings and capacity.

    Recently, Honda committed capex of RM1bn to be incurred in the next 3 years to make Malaysia its regional manufacturing hub for its hybrid vehicles, Insight and Jazz. Honda is expected to expand its Pegoh plant to double its capacity to 100k units per year. Proton should benefit from Honda's capex commitment. Further, Proton should also benefit from VWAG's plan of ramping up capacity to 50k units' p.a. to fulfil its regional production hub plan and meet ASEAN exports needs by 2017/2018.

    The Automotive division should get further boost with CRTM acquisition by DRB's defence unit (Deftech). DRB expects CRTM to be a key support in the design and production of composite frames for its AV8 armored vehicle contracts, and to extend opportunities in aerospace. Management indicated CRTM acquisition to be earning accretive and with the recent award of RM7.55bn contract for supplying of AV8 armored vehicles we are positive on the acquisition.

    As of March 2013, the company signed an MoU with Saab AB to combine competencies and capabilities to provide cost-effective solutions to support the Malaysian government's defence programme. Together, both companies will explore design and manufacture of advanced composite systems and components for military and commercial aerospace applications, composite repair technology, and system integration of electronic warfare, avionics and other airborne systems.

    2. POS acquisition and KLAS prospects to boost service segment growth:

    The service segment is the second largest contributor to the top line with 20% contribution. Where DRB's of solid waste management business provides it with stable and visible revenue we expect most of growth for this segment to come from its Banking, Insurance, and Airport services. Its banking, insurance and airport services should get support from POS Malaysia acquisition which should provide them the much needed network/ coverage to extend their penetration.

    Synergizing both POS Malaysia and Bank Muamalat, DRB set up to offer a sharia-based Islamic Pawnbroking service, ArRahnu@POS. The first phase roll-out is expected to see at least 50 outlets offering ArRahnu@POS service by the end of FY2013. Through POS Malaysia, DRB, established a strategic partnership with Uni.Asia Group for the distribution of vehicle insurance through more than 700 postal outlets nationwide and the introduction of POS Hayat insurance, an affordable life insurance for the public. With the POS acquisition, opportunities remain abundant to tap into its network in extending insurance, logistics and supply chain services among others.

    DRB's airport service subsidiary KL Airport Services (KLAS) should also benefit from POS Malaysia. Synergies can be worked out in the areas of integrated supply chain and logistics services. Although at present KLAS top and bottom line contribution is only about 2% of total revenue, this service holds excellent growth opportunities. KLAS is one of the only two licensed ground handling service providers (the other bigger player is MAS) and controls 57.4% market share of foreign airlines at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. KLAS is expected to continue its strong growth from 1) Commencement of KLIA2 - should bring opportunities from LCC (Low Cost Carriers) such as Malindo Airways and Spice Jet, 2) Integrated logistics (value supply chain), and 3) Expansion of stations capability and potential new airlines. Turkish Airlines is recent new customer and KLAS is also bidding for Air France and Philippines Airlines.

    3. Unlocking of property value and new launches to boost PAC growth:

    Property, Asset and Construction (PAC) business segment contributes to 3% to the group's top line. The company's owns land in strategic locations, including over 600ha in the southern economic growth corridor of Iskandar Malaysia (Iskandar) in Johor.

    With planned RM11 billion property projects in next 36 months, we expect the conglomerate to be among the larger players in the property market. Among projects being planned include the Jalan Tun Razak development, which will feature a mix of offices, and service and hotel apartments, second phase of Laman Glenmarie II; luxury Garden Villas in Glenmarie; and a mixed township project in Johor called Glenmarie Heights. DRB plans to introduce signature commercial developments to include Glenmarie Wahyu (Kuala Lumpur), and HICOM Pegoh Park (Melaka). We expect residential and commercial development of Proton City should catalyze new growth in the region.

    4. Improving Financial Position:

    As per 9M13 results (latest reported results), DRB-Hicom has a net debt of RM3.2bn. As per annual report 2012, DRB was to pare down at least RM1bn worth of debt by mid-2013. DRB expected to do this with selling of non-core assets. It recently sold DRB-Hicom Power (power subsidiary) for RM575m. It's expected to pare down its Bank Muamalat stake from 70% to 40% as per Bank Negara's regulations. We believe this should further reduce the gap of RM1bn. We do not overrule possibility of selling part or full stake in its insurance arm Uni Asia.

    With the payment of RM1 billion debt, group's financial position should improve. We should see higher internal cash flow generation once Proton's turnaround is complete and its margins return to positive territory.

    Further with recent high value acquisition (Proton - c.RM3bn) and enough on plate (Proton turnaround, POS Malaysia integration etc), we don't expect any major organic or inorganic capex in near term except for implementation of current plans.

    5. Attractive Valuation:

    The current valuation doesn't reflect the group's true earning and growth potential. At RM2.55 the stock trades at a compelling ~18x FY13E consensus EPS of RM0.141, ~10x FY14E consensus EPS of RM0.253, and P/B of 0.7x, which is compelling given the company's growth from the restructuring of its automotive division, its hidden value in real estate and synergies from POS Malaysia.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: long-ideas
    Apr 03 6:37 AM | Link | Comment!
  • IJM Land Offers Robust Growth At Undemanding Valuation

    By Marc Djandji, CFA

    The Malaysian property market has witnessed robust growth across subsectors on the back of strong economic growth, competitive interest rates, credit availability, government supportive policies, and foreign influx.

    Long term prospects for real estate seems compelling and growth is expected to continue, driven largely by factors that include the projects under ETP (Economic Transformation Programs), the High Speed Rail Link (HSRL) between Singapore and KL, the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit), and the auction of c.3,000 acres of prime government land in Sungai Buloh combined with lower start rates in new launches (residential segment) making supply tighter.

    However, near-term growth may be sporadic as the Asia Property Market Sentiment Report (H1, 2013) points out that affordability and rising house prices are the main concern of market participants. Further, Bank Negara, to avoid an asset bubble has introduced measures such as loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 70% for 3rd and onwards property loans, Real property gain tax raised to 15 % for properties sold in first 2 years and 10% on property sold between 2-5 year period, and using net income instead of gross income to calculate debt service coverage ratio. These factors among others could cool residential property sector in near term but most survey respondents feel they're more lip service than anything else.

    IJM Land (5215.KL) provides good cross sectoral diversification with robust sales and exciting projects in the pipeline. IJM Land has witnessed a sale CAGR 0f 42.17% between FY08-12, with latest two years sales hitting more than RM1b mark.

    IJM Land is both a niche and township developer with its residential properties ranging from mass market to high-end, as well as some commercial developments. It has a construction unit too and a hotel division with two hotels, one each in the Klang Valley and Pahang. Further, it has international presence with its exposure in selected projects in various geographies such as London, Australia, Singapore and China.

    (click to enlarge)

    At the current price of RM2.37 IJM Land trades at a P/E of 15.8x. We believe that continued robust sales growth, strong project pipeline and overwhelming response to new launches along with selective exposure in international market provides strong visibility and reliability for future earnings growth and thus for further upside. The election risk ahead could provide good entry points before the stock rerated after post-elections.

    The investment rational is based on following factors:

    1. Continued robust growth momentum:

    Till 9M13 the company has reported property revenue of c.RM850m (+5% yoy). It's expected to cross total revenue of c.RM1.4b (RM1.2b in fy12 end). IJM is expected to reach an overall revenue target of RM1.7b in FY13 end driven largely by strong booking, overwhelming response in new launches and current projects. IJM's focus on landed property and affordable to mid priced segments, priced up to RM1.5m per unit (where demand remains good) should ensure continued revenue growth in residential segment in near term.

    Continued sales growth should be supported by three crucial projects, together amounting to RM20b, namely,

    a) RM11b "Rimbayu" near Kota Kemuning in the Klang Valley,

    b) "THE LIGHT Waterfront" with a gross development value (GDV) of RM6b in Penang, and

    c) The "Sebana Cove" with a GDV of RM3b in Johor.

    Mr. Datuk Soam Heng Choon, IJM's CEO and MD, believes the aforesaid 3 projects are crucial for the company in next 3 years (although independent project life is much longer). In addition, revenue should be bolstered from various land developments and other projects such as a recent JV with Amona Development Sdn Bhd to develop 23.4ha planned mixed project in Kerinchi and Pantai Dalam near the Mid Valley Megamall.

    1. Diversified product portfolio and client base:

    IJM has been present in both residential and commercial segments. Its residential projects cater to affordable and mid income level properties priced below RM1.5m. It also offers upper mid income and high end properties selling above RM1.5m. However, its main focus is low to mid-markets which are expected to fare well in an environment where credit availability is being tightened, and affordability and rising housing prices are sited as major concern.

    In commercial space the company is engaged in developing and building/ constructing office space, retail mall and industrial sites. This includes hotel and resort projects too. Current property data (in general for industry as a whole) suggest that retail segment in commercial space should continue to witness higher growth with stable rental yield. Rental yields should continue to be stable in hotel/ resort segment too compared to office segment where occupancy rate are yet below average.

    As part of its growth strategy, IJM Land has entered into various JV for development of properties.

    1. International presence but still very much Malaysian property player:

    IJM has development projects in Australia, Singapore, China and Vietnam. It has recently joint-ventured with Lite Bell Lite Bell Consolidated Sdn Bhd to develop 1ha site in Royal Mint Street in London (UK) comprising hotel and residential components. The project is estimated to generate Rm1.38b. IJM holds 51% in the JV. International exposure to selected projects provides the needed geographical diversification and experience besides insulating them from downtrend in home market. Also limited exposure (in terms of selected project) keeps it insulated from global turmoil.

    IJM is still mainly a focused on the Malaysian property market given its limited international exposure, large local land bank and larger share of future revenue stream coming from Malaysia.

    1. Land Bank to hold future value:

    IJM has a land bank of more than c.6, 000 acres with an estimated GDV of c.RM$31.4b spread across the Northern, Central and Southern regions of the Peninsula as well as in Sabah, East Malaysia, which will sustain earnings in the next 8-10 years".

    Further, IJM's land bank near to and coming in way of MRT, ETP and other large and long term projects should hold key for future value.

    1. Strong balance sheet and sound financial position:

    IJM has a strong balance sheet with enough room for expansion and leverage. IJM in its 3Q13 reported a net cash position of RM98.3m and a positive net cash flow from operations of c.RM174m. Strong financial position should stand to the advantage of IJM while in tendering process of government prime lands such as 3,000 acres at Sungai Buloh, Klang Valley thus improving land bank size and overall value.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Mar 21 5:49 AM | Link | Comment!
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