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A Different Take On A John Galt Portfolio
- This isn’t the first Seeking Alpha strategy inspired by John Galt but I love the idea.
- My approach is different from that of my predecessor; I want visionary innovative companies.
- For details of a model, I’ll look to Partha Mohanram, perhaps the best guru you never heard of.
Scavenging For Quiet Bargains
- Stock Prices (market cap) can be allocated between the part coming from value and the part coming from noise.
- We can profit by identifying low-noise stocks that have the potential to become noisier in the future.
- Insight Enterprises can become noisier as investors come to recognize that they may be underestimating an enterprise IT replacement cycle.
- Culp can become noisier as investors come to appreciate the merits of the replacement matters business.
- Omega Protein can become noisier as investors tune into the growth potential from fish oil as a nutritional supplement.
Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise
- The fact that TSLA stock can’t be justified on the basis of value is not a deterrent from owning the shares.
- Market equilibrium does not require price to equal value; price actually equals value plus noise.
- Among large-cap stocks, we can make money through noise just as readily as we can through value.
- The key is to differentiate between high-quality noise and low-quality noise.
- TSLA can be justified on the basis of high-quality noise; the key is to make sure you take the trouble to do the grunt work.
Overvaluation Is Not Necessarily A Reason To Sell
Mar. 20, 2014 • 2 Comments
- Selling or avoiding overvalued stocks necessarily means we assume a stock ought to sell for what it’s really worth; i.e., that P (price) = V (value).
- A better view of market equilibrium, inspired by a 1984 Robert Shiller paper, maintains that P is really equal to V plus something else, which we’ll call N (noise).
- We can easily quantify the impact of value and noise in any stock price and take action based on an analytic framework most appropriate for that particular stock.
- An Oddball, Sweet Spot Dividend Play
- Amazon, Netflix - Bullish Earnings Quality?
- Looking For High Yield In Out-Of-The-Way Places: Business Development Companies
- A Different Take On A Warren Buffett Strategy
- A Backdoor Approach To Dividend Growth
- Following Mr. Market Into Amazon: Suicidal Or Sensible?
- 5 Cash-Rich Companies With Potential Stock Catalysts
- The Truth About Amazon's Margins
- Bear Hunting Along The Amazon
- Gold Showdown: Mining Stocks Vs. GLD
- 3 Good-Yielding Residential REITs
- Double Standard For Corporate Blowups
- High-Yield Equity Spotlight: Courier Corp.
- High-Yield Equity Spotlight: RadioShack
- Growth Investing - Be Careful About Extremes
- SMF Fuel: Too Many Disturbing Questions
- Steve Jobs By Walter Isaacson: Passion, Perfection And Contradiction
- Double-Barrel Tech Stocks With Good Stories And Fundamentals
- Forget The Value Angle, Apple Is A Pure Growth Play
- Mr. Market Is Not Undervaluing Apple
- Dividend Is Not A Four-Letter Word
- Precious Metals Stocks That Shine Brighter Than Gold
- The Case For Investing In Gold
- Happy Accidents In Oil Country
- Exploring For Supercharged Oil Stocks
- Oil Exposure In An Equity Portfolio: Does It Make Sense?
- Profiting From Half-Hearted Analyst Coverage
- The Virtue Of Investment Indecisiveness