Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Marc Gordon  

View Marc Gordon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • REITs: The 90% Rule Isn't That Big A Deal [View article]
    Reuben, thanks for this excellent article on a subject that, based on comments in other articles, is widely misunderstood by many SA readers.
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Until There's A Dividend, This REIT Remains A Pig In A Poke [View article]
    Selling Cole before everything went to heck (as Brad called for at the time) would have been prudent, but selling it now, at its most damaged is very suboptimal, given that Bill Stanley believes that firms that ceased sales of Cole's non-traded REIT products are going to resume normal operations with Cole. The time to sell Cole is not now but after Cole has exhibited robust activity with broker-dealers coming online, which will demonstrate to a potential buyer that it is a viable entity with future profitable prospects. That will maximize the return to ARCP shareholders, which is what we want.
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gramercy Property Is Well Positioned To Deliver Something Special [View article]
    I find it curious that Mr. Market has tended to not recognize the value of REITs that are a mixture of different types of properties (CSG is an example), but GPT has clearly not had this problem even though it is 48% Industrial, 42% Office, 6% Specialty, and 4% Data Center, which is a rather diffuse collection.
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    It has always been a Seeking Alpha weakness that SA does not require (like legitimate paper publications do) that any table or figure taken from somewhere else be footnoted as to the origin. The amount of plagiarizing that goes on in SA is terrible.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    I have a small quibble Brad, you write here "The sole mREIT, United Development Funding (a monthly dividend payer), has been a good choice." On June 6 of last year you recommended UDF with the bulleted statement "I intend to monitor the shares to establish an entry price at around $19.00." Since then it has had a fair amount of volatility, and more recently it has traded in the $17s. For those of us who followed your advice (our responsibility obviously), while not a disaster, I have a hard time understanding how you can consider UDF to have been a good choice at this point, given the capital loss experienced since the recommendation.
    As always, I thank you for your excellent work.
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For American Homes 4 Rent [View article]
    "Undoubtedly the company expects FFO to grow as operations normalize and efficiencies are realized." What efficiencies? The costs are very high for management, operations, and maintenance of single family homes, there are high vacancy levels, and at sale time, the seller likely has to sell in pools or in bulk at sizeable discounts. How does AMH continue to grow as the housing market normalizes, and they can no longer pick up large stocks of discounted housing? The dividend is bad now, and I see no reason for it to improve significantly. This REIT is a poor choice for investment money.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Franklin Street Properties Before Its Growth Initiatives For 2015-2016 Kick In [View article]
    When I look at the five year chart for FSP and see that the stock price has gone essentially nowhere over the last five years during a enormous eREIT bull market, I can only assume that FSP top management must not be very competent. Unless the top management has been replaced, FSP looks like a lousy investment.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    Very nice article Rubicon. I particularly appreciate your balance with respect to advantages and disadvantages, and your pointing out that preferred are simply an option. Being a total return investor, I tend to not consider preferreds, but can you tell us what the total returns of a basket of REIT preferreds are versus REIT stocks over a prolonged number of years, say ten or more? I am curious as to how much of the total return one gives up by buying the preferreds versus the stocks. TIA.
    Mar 17, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overpriced Mall REITs Should Be Avoided [View article]
    Chris, while I agree with your negative sentiment regarding mall REITs, I also agree with $lik $ilver that this article weakly supports your thesis. For example, you write "Nearly 15% of all enclosed malls are suffering from a vacancy rate between 10% and 40%" implying that this is part of why the REITs you discuss are overvalued. This is nothing more than a leap of faith. Perhaps the REITs you name are highly valued precisely because they own the 85% all enclosed malls are NOT suffering from high vacancy rates. We do not know, because you do not present any data. Another example is you write "the trend should be a major warning sign" for mall decline, but you do not demonstrate with any data that there is a significant trend, or whether the decline is accelerating or has stabilized (I do not know, but I would like to). The statement is presented as an article of faith. I could point to other examples, but you likely see my point.

    Like $lik $ilver, I hope that you will take these comments in the constructive manner that I mean them to be, so that your future articles will be that much more data heavy and influential. I always enjoy becoming more informed on REITs.

    Best regards.
    Mar 14, 2015. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing But Net Lease REITs: March Madness Has Arrived [View article]
    Brad, this is a great article. I own 3 of the final four (O, WPC, and NNN); I have chased STAG for a couple of years but it never seems to dip to my limit order price, perhaps the next interest rate tantrum will be my chance.

    I am looking forward to your article on a list of the best REITs to own in a period of rising rates, I hope you publish it very soon. I also hope you publish a short list of REITs that you might sell from your portfolio when rates start to rise.

    Lastly, how are we to assess whether to keep CSG? I bought it at $7.50 so I am still in the money, but Mr. Market appears very dour regarding this REIT. I am particularly worried about nobody being at the helm, since a good CEO could help resolve the property type issue, while a mediocre CEO might ignore it or even make it worse (such as adding some retail to the mix?). Of course we could wait until a new CEO is found, but that rather stinks of 'hope and wait.' I'd prefer to be more proactive, one way or the other. Any thoughts?
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Homes 4 Rent: Helping Define This Evolving REIT Subsector's Key Stats [View article]
    Reuben, thanks for this interesting article. I too remain very skeptical regarding single- family home equity REITs. I think that the costs are very high for management, operations, and maintenance of single family homes, there are high vacancy levels (as you discussed), and at sale time, the seller likely has to sell in pools or in bulk at sizeable discounts. I am also concerned about how these REITs continue to grow as the housing market normalizes. Unlike other REIT sectors, I do not see an economy of scale in this segment. I will only believe that the single- family home equity REIT sector has a good future when longer term positive data has accumulated.
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Attractively Priced 'Build-To-Suit' REIT That Yields 6.1% [View article]
    zgb952, you should consider yourself fortunate to get Brad's well-informed advice on SA at all, I know that I do! Also, if you want to be first on his list, then pay the relatively small fee for Brad's newsletter; we live in a capitalist system so either pay up or shut up. It is silly to expect anybody to provide information to you for free before they service their paying customers.

    Brad, thanks for all of your frequent and timely contributions on SA! I find them highly actionable since the REIT market rarely moves at light speed.
    Mar 11, 2015. 01:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Attractively Priced 'Build-To-Suit' REIT That Yields 6.1% [View article]
    LXP hit my $10 buy limit order today, so I picked up 4,000 shares at what should be a great long term price. Maybe not the bottom, but at a 6.75% yield, I am happy to be paid while I wait for the share price to stabilize and eventually rebound.
    Mar 6, 2015. 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Profit From Prisons? [View article]
    I think that this article spends too little space elucidating the high level of risk in correction and detention facilities:

    1. Lack of diversification in asset types
    2. Relatively few potential customers (only governments)
    3. Dependence on the condition of local, state, and federal finances
    4. Dependence on rising crime rates and focus on incarceration. To mention just one example, thanks to falling crime rates and new-found success in rehabilitation, in Texas there aren’t enough convicts to fill all the cells built by the state, counties and private contractors who thought the flow of inmates would never end. The state corrections system now has more than 11,000 empty bunks. One state prison has closed, and two more are on the chopping block. County jails have more than 21,000 empty beds of their own. And those once-flourishing private lockups? Several stand empty, as do at least four of the six former state juvenile prisons that were shuttered two years ago. Research by the American-Statesman shows that in Texas nearly two dozen county and private lockups are now vacant or almost so, as are thousands of bunks in state adult and juvenile prisons.
    5. Many are in economically depressed or remote rural locations
    6. The difficulty of repurposing a facility if the tenant is lost. The cells are too small for offices, and the bars and concrete aren’t aesthetically adaptable for much of anything other than holding prisoners.
    7. The loss of principal when the property is deemed functionally obsolete

    There are much more promising REITs to "lock up" your money in. Or to put it another way, it is wise to totally avoid both prison and prison REITs.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's A Lot In Store For STORE Capital [View article]
    Got it! Thanks.
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment