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Marc Radow  

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  • Noble Corp: How To Value It In The Down Cycle And Is It A Buy? [View article]
    nice overview, thx. others in the space; esv or even sdlp?
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Joy Global... Not Too Happy, Yet? [View article]
    So GM is a brand new company by that logic too? mkts don't price it that way
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joy Global... Not Too Happy, Yet? [View article]
    So GM is a brand new company by that logic too? mkts don't price it that way
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joy Global... Not Too Happy, Yet? [View article]
    So GM is a brand new company by that logic too? mkts don't price it that way
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joy Global... Not Too Happy, Yet? [View article]
    So GM is a brand new company by that logic too? mkts don't price it that way
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts For Your Crosshair [View article]
    Thx mate! If I weren't so busy I'd write more... Trading this volatility is a full time affair:)
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts For Your Crosshair [View article]
    Solid comments from all! Thank you for adding and contributing.
    Importantly, reading between the lines among all, it appears many buy and hold PCP. While I think there's good rationale for that here, I encourage readers to consider options on PCP that pay well, particularly if you're willing to own more stock at the strike - premium received.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern Energy: Double Down Or Fold? [View article]
    NW,
    I do appreciate your thoughtful analysis and reply. I also understand your perspective. I couldn't disagree more on each of assertions. I want to be careful not to debate you as everyone is entitled to trade as they see fit, but too often investors make decisions on faulty rationale and results are disastrous. Therefore my reply to you isn't so much directed to you... I sense you're convinced about your approach, but rather for a 'silent' audience who may benefit through more clarity, even though one article may move the needle marginally at best.

    1) Whenever you REDUCE your cost basis, RISK is always LOWER. Risk of 'tanking' is GREATER if your cost basis is higher.

    The risk associated to time (all options) favor the WRITER (seller) more than the BUYER assuming there's extrinsic value in the option, ALWAYS.

    Immediate risk is greater than longer term risk... That's not true. Suggest a read-up on historical vs implied volatility. Without a solid understanding here, trading options is guessing. I often discuss when long vs. short term makes better writing sense... not enough room here to fully explain.

    2) Rolling... Buying an option back at a later date exhausts theta (time value) works to the option sellers advantage. Closing options before expiration complicates the overly simplistic ROI analysis you suggested. ROI stats may look good on paper but misses the more important total dollars (premium) collected.

    In SWN, paying 'up' to close an earlier put option to sell a later one where the seller receives even more premium sets the seller of the option with an even lower cost basis, greater premium credit, and with a larger total position size. If you're bullish on the underlying, then the strategy works perfectly. If fundamentally you change heart and believe the equity will fall further, then indeed simply cut losses (i.e. Run & Hide... the later half title of the article).

    Ultimately, writing shorter term options collects less premium. Writing longer term collects more. When the game is to collect as much as you can at the lowest cost basis, and lowest 'if put' cost, an investor will serve him/herself well to go long!

    In closing, thank you for your comment. I appreciate the opening for discussion, even if we disagree. Please take no offense to anything in my reply.

    Good luck to you in trading / investing!
    Marc
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern Energy: Double Down Or Fold? [View article]
    Kruk,
    Agreed. And also with Black who replied to you earlier... See here too: http://bit.ly/1Nj9yvV
    Long the commodity and SWN.
    Marc
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern Energy: Double Down Or Fold? [View article]
    Doc,
    There's a lot of good sense to wait and see. I resist the sidelines more however and I still look to be anticipatory vs. reactionary in the energy space (all spaces for that matter). I don't look for mkt confirmations as that's simply following the herd, which never produces good results.
    Thanks for your comment!
    Marc
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern Energy: Double Down Or Fold? [View article]
    Blue,
    That's a reasonable extrapolation, but not likely to happen. We're concerned primarily with the realized price SWN receives. NG mkts overall will have to deteriorate for your thesis to play out. Then value will increase for the likes of SWN vs even more levered E&P's with higher production costs. So stake your claim on the direction of the commodity and pick a horse to run with. Otherwise it's the sidelines and I didn't want to be there.
    Good luck to you! Thanks for your comment.
    Marc
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harsco Corp. - An American Infrastructure Company Alive And Well [View article]
    market's wobbles are stronger hands opportunity. Best to you in your trading!
    Mar 11, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Century Aluminum Company: Promise Amidst Market Noise [View article]
    CENX at $16 is the result of analyst opinion at BofA regarding LME pricing. I've used the fall to average further into CENX. Specifically Jan $15 can be written between $3.8 - $4.1. Assuming you get them about $4. That IF PUT cost basis is $11... 32% downside protection.. The If Put premium represents 25% upside move
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern Energy To Get Long Energy [View article]
    agreed johnny. If your balance sheet is stretched, you need to hedge... particularly if you've debt covenants to meet (you really don't own anything if it's financed). Staying on point, xec has a strong balance sheet. Swn's was and remains ok too even after the $5b purchase by issuing equity in a hurry at depressed levels.

    Of note, a balance sheet doesn't run out of time or have concern about % of production... just a less aggressive way to play.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: A Few Highlights From The Q4 Results [View article]
    Thx for recap.
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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