Gold Is Overvalued: Fundamentals Say 'Bubble' [View article]
Hi RA, Thank you for the reasoned approach to an emotional topic.
As you are aware, the market is not necessary reasonable.
Gold presently, in the Western hemisphere anyways is reacting to the Nov 3 announcement of the FOMC indicating support for treasuries. That in turn is driving the markets and the price of Gold.
Gold may be high, but is far from mania, and many reasonable people are just using it as a means to preserve wealth as you indicate.
Gold may eventually come to a bubble peak, as you indicate, but the timing is way off, for present. One only needs to examine the reality of the markets to understand that.
So thank you for your reasoning, but in looking at the present markets, I have to completely disagree with you at this time. Gold is going up from here. Exit or short the market at your own peril.
I am too tougue-tied to respond; but fortunately Mr. Schaefer just wrote a piece on oil: seekingalpha.com/artic...
"One thing the crowd that loves to hate the oil, gas and coal that provide them the electricity to fire up their computers and printers so they can write their hate letters about fossil fuels, fuel the autos that take them to the post office, and provide the jet fuel to send their letters to me, need to know: I own a home in the Florida Keys and have been a diver who has seen marine environmental destruction and rebirth over 40 years of diving.
Fort Lauderdale used to pump its untreated sewage out to the second and third reefs off the coast, decimating the (out of sight to most, out of mind) precious corals that, along with the mangroves displaced by condos, had protected the beaches from hurricane devastation for thousands of years. Like most old divers, I fought for the marine environment long before it was cool to be a limousine or Hummer environmentalist.
But I try to be rational about this issue and recognize that, until we can switch to alternative and renewable energy sources like solar and wind, all of us, in the developing world in particular, are unlikely to voluntarily stop seeking a better life. To achieve that better life, we need food, shelter, and some other basics. All depend upon prodigious amounts of energy – transportation, lighting, heating, world commerce, etc."
I can understand your analysis of historical ratios, but as the first comment says from the "Screwloose" polar bear, the circumstances have changed, and one may need to revisit your assumptions.
Historical ratios is not a lot of use when the emerging middle classes from the developing world look to hoard some precious metals - as these huge numbers of possible buyers have never appeared in history before. This new volume of buyers is exactly what is pushing the prices up.
That middle class buying together with the developing world's central banks and sovereign wealth funds acquisition has never before happened in history.
This is a brave new world for precious metals investing. Investors that do not recognize or understand this, will lose out.
Chinese Demand: Which Is a Better Short, Gold or the Miners? [View article]
Wow, such a strong piece against Gold price and miners; with nary a shred of evidence to back it up...merely opinions.
Yes China is trying to slow growth, with increase in bank reserves percentages and penalties for property owners, but you surmise that this is immediately bearish for Gold. I think you do not understand the scale of demand for precious metals in China or the cultural under pinnings for precious metals. Chinese do not care one iota for American analysts opinions.
Do you not know about the shift of China's 550 million rural dwellers to cities?
Do you not know of the Chinese government support of precious metals ownership changes?
It is not only China, but India and the rest of the emerging world that all have populations that are enjoying a rise in standards of living and now have an opportunity to preserve some of their wealth in the traditional ways...of owning precious metals.
I caution readers to be wary of trying to short Gold or Silver when both are in a bull market phase underpinned by the buying of emerging countries populations. It is truly sad how un-enlightened some commentators are with their narrow viewpoints of the world.
Three Gold and Silver Stock Picks for 2011 and Beyond [View article]
Hi Robert,
Excellent information here Robert, thanks.
Maybe cuz it is the weekend, or I drank too much coffee, maybe I can throw some possibly fiery comments in on your choices.
I do not really see the link to the selection information presented previously, and those 3 choices, I have a serious case of negative feel towards.
UXG is overhyped. As you say super star management, but show me the beef.
AUY is undervalued for a reason, they are guilty of greed and have diluted their shareholders silly. It will be a long time before recovery.
NEM is one of the big 3 gold miners. I don't have a bad feel about them specifically, but, the large guys will not move relative to the price of Gold. Therefore one takes on the company risk to invest in them for no gains.
There, it is only my opinion, but I mainly favor Juniors. Out of the 3 choices above, even though I believe UXG is hyped, I think it may still move the most, because it is a junior, and expectations of possible futures move stocks.
Good Luck to everyone in their investing, Marco G.
Looking at $100 Shares of Silver Wheaton Corporation [View article]
Hi Bob,
Congratulations on your moves with SLW.
I too am a firm believer in the possible gains with Silver.
Recently, this week, I found another driver for Silver prices from China.
The ICBC, bank (largest) in the world has opened retail trading for silver investment certificates. I believe this is causing quite a stir in China presently.
A Silver Bull Recommends Six Silver Stocks [View article]
Hi Captain,
Sorry to slight your stock.
I've tended to ignore CDE since the troubles with huge float and share price consolidation. However, I just looked, and CDE has tripled and more since the March 2009 lows.
Now as to going forward, one will have to look at the details and prognosis going forward.
Just for me though, I am a concerted junior follower. I look for edges in analysis for max returns possible; such as turnaround (before market understands, eg: HL), undervalued (because market overlooks, eg: Canadian Zinc - CZICF), and increasing production (small guys leveraged to Silver price, eg: Genco, and US Silver)
4 Stocks and 2 Commodities to Avoid for Now [View article]
Just a comment about Silver.
In the 80's it was a mania driven by speculators trying to corner the market.
Presently, Silver and precious metals are driven by mass buying of the emerging markets middle class, something that is completely and fundamentally different.
Therefore, do not just look at the chart and say overbought; consider the environmental changes. The present buyers are keepers and will probably not trade.
Long junior mining equities, including gold and silver explorers.
6 Silver Stocks Ready to Follow SLV's Momentum [View article]
Hi Skaiste,
I may be becoming a bit of a nuisance for you Skaiste, but I don't think it is a question of ethics. I freely acknowledge and declare, that I have a position in the stocks that I mention, prior to you knowing about my writings.
As for the same picks, I am not a conventional investor, and I hold uncommon views about risk and about diversity, in terms of holding a basket of stocks. I only hold a handful, the ones, that I have done investigation and reading about. I do not believe in diversifying as I think the markets are linked; in fact the whole world is linked, and what affects one section of the market will have an impact on everything else. Anyways, I digress, and I do try not to be too annoying, but sometimes, there are these findings and insights and research that I would like to share with an investor audience.
Thanks for mentioning me in your article. Yes, I believe the best gains in this bull will be in the Silver Juniors; and the best silver juniors will out perform.
This run -up of the precious metals, I believe, is not the ordinary run with pull-back and consolidations. Look at the strengths of the moves. As your article says, there are indications the shorts that are holding the move back are being overcome with fresh buying.
This run is a once in a lifetime event, and one hesitates at the peril of missing this opportunity. One needs to understand the basics behind the move, and take advantage of it.
A Silver Bull Recommends Six Silver Stocks [View article]
Hi G & D Investor,
Yes, Hecla have had their issues with debt during the bull runup, that may be the factor in their fall out; but since then, they made a smart move with acquiring all the Greens Creek mine. Those were reasons for me to invest at that time.
Also, they are focused on good and increasing grades in their Lucky Friday in Idaho.
Should Investors Play Gold, Gold Miners, or Gold ETFs? [View article]
Hi InvestU,
Your thesis that Gold will decouple from US recovery may be valid. But it may be the US recovery will slow albeit, it is dragged forward by the world's recovery and emerging market growth. The world's prospective growth is just such a strong force, and you want to short this?
I would caution investors not to short a strong bull market; there are better weak candidates to short.
Higher Highs for Precious Metals Coming [View article]
Hi Stumptowners,
I am not an advocate of physical beyond some interesting coins. It may just be too bulky and inconvenient to trade.
I would not advocate the ETF's as well, as I am usually looking for a better than standard price rise return.
However, the idea of miners is where I play. My estimation, which I have iterated before is, a combination of Great Basin Gold (GBG) for Gold and Silvermex (GGCRF) for Silver would provide the best gains with the lowest attendant risk. As to why, see my previous articles including the interviews with their CEO's. As a side speculative play, I would put some into Canadian Zinc (CZICF). I have also interviewed Canadian Zinc's COO. Interesting, I seem to be the most comfortable with the stocks of people that I have interviewed.
Anyways, it is only my opinion, and please seek others as well as doing your own research.
Gold Is Overvalued: Fundamentals Say 'Bubble' [View article]
Thank you for the reasoned approach to an emotional topic.
As you are aware, the market is not necessary reasonable.
Gold presently, in the Western hemisphere anyways is reacting to the Nov 3 announcement of the FOMC indicating support for treasuries. That in turn is driving the markets and the price of Gold.
Gold may be high, but is far from mania, and many reasonable people are just using it as a means to preserve wealth as you indicate.
Gold may eventually come to a bubble peak, as you indicate, but the timing is way off, for present. One only needs to examine the reality of the markets to understand that.
So thank you for your reasoning, but in looking at the present markets, I have to completely disagree with you at this time. Gold is going up from here. Exit or short the market at your own peril.
Marco G.
Is Coal Capable of a Comeback? [View article]
I am too tougue-tied to respond; but fortunately Mr. Schaefer just wrote a piece on oil:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"One thing the crowd that loves to hate the oil, gas and coal that provide them the electricity to fire up their computers and printers so they can write their hate letters about fossil fuels, fuel the autos that take them to the post office, and provide the jet fuel to send their letters to me, need to know: I own a home in the Florida Keys and have been a diver who has seen marine environmental destruction and rebirth over 40 years of diving.
Fort Lauderdale used to pump its untreated sewage out to the second and third reefs off the coast, decimating the (out of sight to most, out of mind) precious corals that, along with the mangroves displaced by condos, had protected the beaches from hurricane devastation for thousands of years. Like most old divers, I fought for the marine environment long before it was cool to be a limousine or Hummer environmentalist.
But I try to be rational about this issue and recognize that, until we can switch to alternative and renewable energy sources like solar and wind, all of us, in the developing world in particular, are unlikely to voluntarily stop seeking a better life. To achieve that better life, we need food, shelter, and some other basics. All depend upon prodigious amounts of energy – transportation, lighting, heating, world commerce, etc."
Marco G.
Silver Is Too Rich vs. Gold [View article]
I can understand your analysis of historical ratios, but as the first comment says from the "Screwloose" polar bear, the circumstances have changed, and one may need to revisit your assumptions.
Historical ratios is not a lot of use when the emerging middle classes from the developing world look to hoard some precious metals - as these huge numbers of possible buyers have never appeared in history before. This new volume of buyers is exactly what is pushing the prices up.
That middle class buying together with the developing world's central banks and sovereign wealth funds acquisition has never before happened in history.
This is a brave new world for precious metals investing. Investors that do not recognize or understand this, will lose out.
Marco G.
Chinese Demand: Which Is a Better Short, Gold or the Miners? [View article]
Yes China is trying to slow growth, with increase in bank reserves percentages and penalties for property owners, but you surmise that this is immediately bearish for Gold. I think you do not understand the scale of demand for precious metals in China or the cultural under pinnings for precious metals. Chinese do not care one iota for American analysts opinions.
Do you not know about the shift of China's 550 million rural dwellers to cities?
Do you not know of the Chinese government support of precious metals ownership changes?
It is not only China, but India and the rest of the emerging world that all have populations that are enjoying a rise in standards of living and now have an opportunity to preserve some of their wealth in the traditional ways...of owning precious metals.
I caution readers to be wary of trying to short Gold or Silver when both are in a bull market phase underpinned by the buying of emerging countries populations. It is truly sad how un-enlightened some commentators are with their narrow viewpoints of the world.
Marco G.
You Should Short Silver and Gold at These Prices [View article]
With so many unpredictable factors, and wild-eyed traders there are many more other easier trades.
Disclosure: Long gold equities.
Marco G.
Three Gold and Silver Stock Picks for 2011 and Beyond [View article]
Excellent information here Robert, thanks.
Maybe cuz it is the weekend, or I drank too much coffee, maybe I can throw some possibly fiery comments in on your choices.
I do not really see the link to the selection information presented previously, and those 3 choices, I have a serious case of negative feel towards.
UXG is overhyped. As you say super star management, but show me the beef.
AUY is undervalued for a reason, they are guilty of greed and have diluted their shareholders silly. It will be a long time before recovery.
NEM is one of the big 3 gold miners. I don't have a bad feel about them specifically, but, the large guys will not move relative to the price of Gold. Therefore one takes on the company risk to invest in them for no gains.
There, it is only my opinion, but I mainly favor Juniors. Out of the 3 choices above, even though I believe UXG is hyped, I think it may still move the most, because it is a junior, and expectations of possible futures move stocks.
Good Luck to everyone in their investing,
Marco G.
12 Shiny Silver Stocks [View article]
IMPORTANT NOTICE TO READERS.
SEEKING ALPHA IS MAKING CHANGES AND GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS IS NO LONGER A SECTOR
IN THEIR VIEW OF THE MARKETS.
THEREFORE, IT WILL VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND NEWS OR ARTICLES.
IF YOU DISAGREE, PLEASE MAKE YOUR VOICES HEARD AT SEEKING ALPHA.
MARCO G.
**********************...
Looking at $100 Shares of Silver Wheaton Corporation [View article]
Congratulations on your moves with SLW.
I too am a firm believer in the possible gains with Silver.
Recently, this week, I found another driver for Silver prices from China.
The ICBC, bank (largest) in the world has opened retail trading for silver investment certificates. I believe this is causing quite a stir in China presently.
See my posting here:
seekingalpha.com/insta...
Marco G.
A Silver Bull Recommends Six Silver Stocks [View article]
Sorry to slight your stock.
I've tended to ignore CDE since the troubles with huge float and share price consolidation. However, I just looked, and CDE has tripled and more since the March 2009 lows.
Now as to going forward, one will have to look at the details and prognosis going forward.
Just for me though, I am a concerted junior follower. I look for edges in analysis for max returns possible; such as turnaround (before market understands, eg: HL), undervalued (because market overlooks, eg: Canadian Zinc - CZICF), and increasing production (small guys leveraged to Silver price, eg: Genco, and US Silver)
Silver Success to you all!
Marco G.
4 Stocks and 2 Commodities to Avoid for Now [View article]
In the 80's it was a mania driven by speculators trying to corner the market.
Presently, Silver and precious metals are driven by mass buying of the emerging markets middle class, something that is completely and fundamentally different.
Therefore, do not just look at the chart and say overbought; consider the environmental changes. The present buyers are keepers and will probably not trade.
Long junior mining equities, including gold and silver explorers.
Marco G.
6 Silver Stocks Ready to Follow SLV's Momentum [View article]
I may be becoming a bit of a nuisance for you Skaiste, but I don't think it is a question of ethics. I freely acknowledge and declare, that I have a position in the stocks that I mention, prior to you knowing about my writings.
As for the same picks, I am not a conventional investor, and I hold uncommon views about risk and about diversity, in terms of holding a basket of stocks. I only hold a handful, the ones, that I have done investigation and reading about. I do not believe in diversifying as I think the markets are linked; in fact the whole world is linked, and what affects one section of the market will have an impact on everything else. Anyways, I digress, and I do try not to be too annoying, but sometimes, there are these findings and insights and research that I would like to share with an investor audience.
Silver success to you!
Marco G.
Where Silver Is Headed [View article]
Thanks for mentioning me in your article. Yes, I believe the best gains in this bull will be in the Silver Juniors; and the best silver juniors will out perform.
This run -up of the precious metals, I believe, is not the ordinary run with pull-back and consolidations. Look at the strengths of the moves. As your article says, there are indications the shorts that are holding the move back are being overcome with fresh buying.
This run is a once in a lifetime event, and one hesitates at the peril of missing this opportunity. One needs to understand the basics behind the move, and take advantage of it.
Silver success to you all!
Marco G.
A Silver Bull Recommends Six Silver Stocks [View article]
Yes, Hecla have had their issues with debt during the bull runup, that may be the factor in their fall out; but since then, they made a smart move with acquiring all the Greens Creek mine. Those were reasons for me to invest at that time.
Also, they are focused on good and increasing grades in their Lucky Friday in Idaho.
Silver Success to you all!
Marco G.
Should Investors Play Gold, Gold Miners, or Gold ETFs? [View article]
Your thesis that Gold will decouple from US recovery may be valid. But it may be the US recovery will slow albeit, it is dragged forward by the world's recovery and emerging market growth. The world's prospective growth is just such a strong force, and you want to short this?
I would caution investors not to short a strong bull market; there are better weak candidates to short.
Marco G.
Higher Highs for Precious Metals Coming [View article]
I am not an advocate of physical beyond some interesting coins. It may just be too bulky and inconvenient to trade.
I would not advocate the ETF's as well, as I am usually looking for a better than standard price rise return.
However, the idea of miners is where I play. My estimation, which I have iterated before is, a combination of Great Basin Gold (GBG) for Gold and Silvermex (GGCRF) for Silver would provide the best gains with the lowest attendant risk. As to why, see my previous articles including the interviews with their CEO's. As a side speculative play, I would put some into Canadian Zinc (CZICF). I have also interviewed Canadian Zinc's COO. Interesting, I seem to be the most comfortable with the stocks of people that I have interviewed.
Anyways, it is only my opinion, and please seek others as well as doing your own research.
All the best,
Marco G.