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  • Overlooked World Energy Solutions: High-Margin Recurring Revenue Growth Business With Near-Term Catalysts Available At Deep Value Levels [View article]
    I've followed this one for 1,5 years now. My own analysis has produced very similar results as yours, except that my estimates for FCF and EBITDA development are significantly lower.

    OCF 2013 was 3.1 MUSD and 1.2 MUSD in 1H 2014.

    You've estimated 5.5 MUSD in 2014 and 8.1 MUSD in 2015. This would mean that 2H 2014 OCF should be 4.3 MUSD and that pace would continue in 2015.

    Where does the increase come from? What data points support the estimate?
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCO: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain [View article]
    Welcome to SeekingAlpha Konsta!

    I hope you are right. I have also a position in this one:)
    Sep 25, 2014. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OTC Markets Group: 10 Cents Of Growing Free Cash Flow Per Dollar [View article]
    butters03: thanks for extending my write-up!

    This is a long-term investment for me too. Coulson has done a great job in cleaning up the OTC market and making it investable for a much larger audience than before.

    The bad reputation of the old OTC market may be one reason for the undervaluation.
    May 29, 2014. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OTC Markets Group: 10 Cents Of Growing Free Cash Flow Per Dollar [View article]
    Michael: OTCM's business is pretty resilient to an equity market downturn as most of the revenue is subscription based, not based on the volume.

    OTCM actually grew revenues during the financial crisis. Revenues during the crisis:

    2007: 16,007
    2008: 19,520
    2009, 22,088

    At the same time, the dollar volume of the shares traded went down significantly. I.E: the revenues grew despite the reduction in the trading volume.

    Big downturn would very likely reduce the valuations multiples, though.

    I see this one as a long-term investment, where the growth in the fundamentals drives the returns.
    May 29, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asta Funding: Who Doesn't Like Free? [View article]
    writser: exactly my thoughts.

    The family also seems to have a very strong preference not to liquidate / sell the business. The long pitches however focus on liquidation value / enterprise value. I.E: the pitches suggest to invest based on scenarios, which are unlikely to happen.
    May 19, 2014. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asta Funding: Who Doesn't Like Free? [View article]
    I've followed ASFI since 2011. The investment pitch was exactly the same back then. The gap between the underlying value and the market valuation is still pretty much the same as it was in 2011. The math for share buybacks was compelling in 2011 too:)

    Shareholders are asking for share buybacks in just about every earnings call. ASFI has bought back shares, but only small amounts.

    The real question here is: "is the management going to do something useful with the cash or not?". The value of the company is pretty much determined by the answer. So far, the answer has been "no" and the share has been a value trap.
    May 11, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asta Funding: Who Doesn't Like Free? [View article]
    This post fails to address the real problem in ASFI completely: the management. ASFI keeps a mountain of cash on the balance sheet quarter after quarter, year after year.

    The whole pitch is based on an assumption that one dollar of cash on the balance sheet has a value of one dollar to the owners. The management however refuses to invest the cash and to return it to the owners. As a result, the company earns a meager return for the invested capital. That looks like a value trap, not a great opportunity.
    May 9, 2014. 11:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Johnson & Johnson Should Buy Prestige Brands [View article]
    Radiohead: I agree that there is a high risk of PBH becoming a serial acquirer. PBH could realize the value simply by using the huge FCFF to pay off the debt and then return cash to the shareholders.
    Aug 25, 2011. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Johnson & Johnson Should Buy Prestige Brands [View article]
    Prestige Brands acquires brands, which are too small for companies like JNJ and PG. Hence, I don't understand why JNJ should acquire PBH.

    Disclosure: I own shares of PBH.
    Aug 24, 2011. 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strayer Education: A Good Company for a Fair Price [View article]
    Excellent question! Title IV funding cuts would reduce demand for the for-profit education services. Part of the students would get funding elsewhere, but not all. This would mean that less services would be needed and some of the players on the market would not survive.

    Strayer is one of the best companies in the sector and will survive. I believe that the business case for Strayer is excellent in the long run, but the next 1 - 2 years will be highly turbulent.
    Apr 17, 2011. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MSCI Emerging Market Index is 50% overvalued [View instapost]

    Yes, I am indeed from Finland:) It's pretty cold here right now...

    The MCap/GDP method gives a rough indication of the overall market valuation. The beauty of this metric is that it can be calculated with publicly available reliable data from IMF, World Bank and International Stock Exchanges. Using for instance P/E value is already much more difficult, because there are quite a few ways to calculate it and P/E value is not so easily available for emerging market companies.

    MCap/GDP is by no means the whole truth and you should also look at other indicators as well. Emerging markets look however grossly overvalued by other metrics too and also they have received huge capital inflows during the last few years - most of the evidence points to overvaluation despite the projected strong growth.

    The emerging market value fund from Seligson selects the investments based on Price to Book ratio. As MCap/GDP values whole markets, it can't tell much about a fund, which focuses on a part of the market.

    I am mostly using MCap/GDP for asset allocation purposes. Part of my portfolio is in ETFs and basically I would like to avoid investing new money into a significantly overvalued market. Currently, it looks like European and Japanese markets are undervalued, while US is overvalued and emerging markets are grossly overvalued.

    I hope this helps!
    Feb 16, 2011. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment