Mark Anthony

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

PiggyBank:

We can have nice discussions without necessarily agreeing on things. Neither VNP nor FSLR is willing to reveal specific information on their tellurium supply, so any outsider can only speculate, but my speculation is logical and reasonable based on all publically known information.

Tellurium IS scarce on earth. It's on books of geology science so do not try to dispute it. It is true that currently the extraction efficiency of tellurium from copper mines is only 33%, so there is some room for improvement if there is enough economic incentives. But tellurium price already went up almost 30 fold from 4 years ago and we have not seen dramatically ramped up tellurium production yet. Why do you think copper mines will be interested in doing anything to extract more tellurium any time soon, if a 30 fold increase of price is still not incentive enough to them?

According to Professor Martin Green, in average, out of one ton of copper, there exists 100 grams of tellurium, and ultimately 33 grams is extracted using existing technology. One ton of copper is worth $8800, the 33 gram of tellurium, at today's price, is only worth $10, which is nothing compare with the $8800 main stream copper revenue.

Tellurium price will have to go up another 100 fold, bring the tellurium portion up to $1000, compare with $8800 for copper, for there to be some interest to try to get more tellurium out.

But my estimate is if tellurium price triple or quadruple from current price, it will be enough to kill FSLR as a business.