Mark Anthony

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

Stone:

I absolutely agree with you that it will leads to a surge of BDI. China's bank loan in January, 2008 was a record breaker. The bank loan in January, 2009 was more than twice bigger than a year ago! If you are surprised by the booming loan then you don't know China and you don't know how China operates.

Loans are a mutual thing. You can't loan money unless some one is willing to take that loan. The doubling of China's bank loan more than reflect the banks' willingness to loan, more importantly it reflect the willingness of Chinese corporations to take the loan and grow their business. That is very bullish for the global commodities and for the global shipping industry.
stockology.blogspot.co...

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

Trader Mark:

Here is my response to your "What's going on" in BDI:

stockology.blogspot.co...

Enjoy. The article should be posted on Seeking Alpha soon.

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

I also recommend this blog which contains lots of information on the global shipping industry:

shipchartering.blogspo...

Again people really need to pay more attention to what's going on in China if you want to know where the global shipping is going:

seekingalpha.com/autho...

I am pesimistic about US economy, but I am very optimistic about Chinese economy. China can move on without the US market. They can simply sell products to Africa in exchange for Africa's natural resources. Instead of lending money to America, China can lend money to Africa:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

Trader Mark:

A nice analysis but yur conclusion is completely wrong because you don't know China. You don't understand what's behind China's emergence as a new world super power, and the profound reason behind it. You don't understand what makes China a different country than 30 years ago.
I invite you to read this accounting of the shipping fundamentals:
stockology.blogspot.co...
And a more in depth call made at the beginning of December why BDI would surge back powerfully and quickly. That was a good call BTW:
stockology.blogspot.co...
China is shifting its economy to one that's based on domestic demand. The transition is happening at a rapid pace and the result will be the resumption of commodity boom very soon, leaving the USA behind