Mark Anthony

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

I have high respect of Jack Lifton. His writting got me interested in tellurium. But I feel he was completely mislead on the potential of palladium and he was completely wrong. At his writing on Feb 14, 08, palladium was at $440, today it is approaching $600. Jack Lifton clear has not done enough homework to understand the fundamentals of palladium. I wish I have a chance to directly communicate and discuss with him on palladium.

Read the other article I wrote on palladium:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

Further on tellurium. I found a web site where you can track the price change of the last 12 months:

www.asianmetal.cn/Meta...

Look at the charts on the right side. In just the last 12 months, tellurium went from 500 Yuan/kilogram to now 1500 to 1600 Yuan/kilogram. More than triple in 12 months. That really tells you how tight the global tellurium supply is!!!

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

Mark Aurelius:

The palladium and platinum super bull cycle is a multi-year cycle. We are only seeing the beginning of it. PAL and SWC are definitely a buy and long term holding at current price level. I have not sold a single share. I took advantage of last Friday (Feb 29,08)'s PAL dip and loaded more shares using increased buying power. I advice you do the same.

On FSLR, do you guys notice that whenever analysts asked them for specific, quantified answers on tellurium supply, they could never give a specific number for an answer. They look like trying to hide something. I honestly believe that their Q4 production numbers could not be possible. 5N Plus remains their dominant CdTe supplier and I see no indication that they are getting enough CdTe supply from 5N Plus. I repeatedly contacted FSLR ask for clarification on their CdTe supply. I even threatened to file a complaint to SEC, so far I get no response from them. At this moment I do not own any long or short position in FSLR. But I really hope they be honest with the public regarding their tellurium supply.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

Beanie:

Look at this incredible price rally in tellurium. See teh chart on the right side:

www.asianmetal.com/Met...

Look at that, no one should have much doubt that FSLR is quickly approaching a DOOM pretty soon, as tellurium shortage worsen globally.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

If you want to email me privately, use cadmium_telluride at yahoo dotCOM. I just may not check my email every day. I just shorted FSLR again today, Feb. 11, 08, for disclosure purpose.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part II)

Water is a good idea. Jim Rogers talks about water in a TV interview. He believes that owning water rights is a bad idea. When crisis hit, you will be lucky if they just hang you for hoarding. But water treatment is definitely a good idea. I have been using a water filtration system at my home for drinking water for 4 years and have never give it a good thought. Maybe I should look out for who produces the water filters and write about it in my next article.

The PGM rally is awesome, so is the gain in the stocks PAL and SWC. We are blessed that there is really not a third player in the field, just PAL and SWC, or you go buy physical PGM metals.

Best and Worst Performing U.S. Stocks YTD

The FSLR stock was hyped based on the WRONG perception that it can literally grow unlimited. If that is the case I would have bought it at current price level. But every one ignored on critical and fatal issue, that is the critical FSLR's tellurium supply.

I believe that not only FSLR's growth is unsustainable, it could actually be forced to go OUT OF BUSINESS, within two years, or it could happen within 6 months if a tellurium rush results. Read here:

www.seekingalpha.com/a...

The price target of FSLR is below $20 within 18 to 24 months. No joking!