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Mark Bern, CFA

 
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  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    WHO updated its reported numbers for Ebola cases and deaths after 8 days: 343 total new confirmed deaths from Ebola in Africa since last report. Daily average drops to 38.1.

    This is a big drop from the previous high point of 69.1 deaths per day from Nov 5th. But if this proves to be the new trough low point, which I expect to be so, it will be almost as high as the earlier peaks. As our furry host has indicated in earlier posts, this may be merely the lull before the storm. The daily average over the next 30-60 days could rise above 150.
    Sep 18 03:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    Doc - I wasn't trying to point out any shortcoming. What you provided was excellent information. I was just trying to add something that I had come across. Your insights and superior knowledge are always much appreciated.
    Sep 16 10:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    From the WHO Fact Sheet (http://bit.ly/1kOxnni)

    "Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness."

    I wonder if survivors are counseled and if they follow the instructions. Otherwise the epidemic could go on much longer. It only takes one to start up the disease again, especially if that person travels.

    "The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days."

    "People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory."

    Again, it can take up to 3 weeks before symptoms begin and survivors can still infect others long after they have "recovered."

    Another link on Ebola: http://huff.to/1qNWYgR

    "Ebola can also survive outside the host for a significant period of time -- as long as a couple of days -- at room temperature. "That's why infection control is such a huge part of this," Bhadelia said."

    Also from the same article is a timeline showing incubation and development of the different symptoms. If this table is correct, death (if it is the outcome) usually occurs about 10 days after the symptoms begin.
    Sep 12 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    I like CLX except for the debt ratio. But they managed through the last financial and nobody is going to stop using the product, so....
    Sep 8 11:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    I realize that this is not the case, but wouldn't it be ironic if chewing tobacco was found to build up immunity to Ebola? LOL
    Sep 7 04:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    Interesting article about majors in the mix for Ebola vaccine:

    http://yhoo.it/1AnHd14
    Sep 7 04:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    Total deaths from Ebola as of Sept 5, 2014 = 2,014. Average number of deaths over the last 8 days is 69.13.

    This is the highest peak so far.

    WHO has announced the expectation of 20,000 deaths from Ebola before the epidemic is over.

    I am now buying into the concept that the vaccines (more so than cures) could become big sellers if offered to the public shortly after the first confirmed cases are reported in the U.S.

    Question is: Will the government step in and make the vaccines unprofitable or will it buy up the vaccines and decide who gets them? Officials still have a huge opportunity to screw this up either way.

    If they just get out of the way and let the market decide, then the poor and homeless could be at risk if uninsured. Wouldn't that make a big story against capitalism?

    There is probably a happy medium that could protect nearly everyone, but my confidence level is not very high with government intervention.
    Sep 7 03:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    This is not good!

    Abia Declares Manhunt for 50 Suspected Ebola Victims Who 'Escaped ... - Nigerian Bulletin http://bit.ly/1qgMkPz
    Nigerian Commisioner for Health, Mr. Okechukwu Ogah said that the Abia State Government will "'work with neighbouring states to track down the 50 people that were said to have fled from Rivers State and put them on surveillance. We need to work together to rid Nigeria of Ebola; and if there is anybody hiding in Abia we will ask for their names and announce them on air for the public to help us track them.'"
    Sep 4 12:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! July 2014 Update [View article]
    389190 - Yes and no, not necessarily in that order. I do not plan on pushing out protection until late November or early December assuming that there is nothing that appears to be the beginning of a real correction before that time. Also, I would like to see how both the bond markets and equities react to the end of QE3 in October. I am not sure what to expect, if anything, but without either a catalyst or sustained weakness in consumer spending the market could continue higher for awhile. This is insurance against the unknown happening; funny that it seems the unknown always happens if given enough time, though.
    Sep 2 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    FPA - I really like your suggestion of funding DWB directly and get the governments out of the way. But I think that, over time, even those who administrate that group could be tempted into self-dealing activities if the money was large enough and consistent.

    I think the better way is to give the a grant for maybe three years with expectations of progress on one or more fronts along with accountability on how the money was used/spent. If everything is going well at the end of the first period, then additional one-year grants could be provided as long as the progress was satisfactory.

    If the progress or accountability problems arise, find another organization to take over and reduce the DWB funding back to levels that allow them to do administer services as it does now, but at a better level. DWB is a great organization, but where there is ample money it will attract corruption. I feel that the ones making the contributions need to make it clear that higher funding levels will only continue to be granted as long as the money is being put to good use; and it would need to be ready to back up that statement with actions if necessary.

    There are just way too many charitable organization executives making mid- to high-six figure salaries. Does it really take that kind of money to get commitment from people to do the right thing? Sorry for being so cynical.
    Aug 28 08:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    125 new Ebola deaths reported on 8/28 since 8/24; average is down to 31.25 per day over that period. If the bottom doesn't go a lot lower I am afraid that the next upward surge could be over 50 per day. One other news tidbit about a new case in Lagos: "The unnamed doctor, according to news website, Sahara Reporters, secretly treated a diplomat who had contact with Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian-American, who brought the virus to Nigeria. The doctor reportedly died on Friday, while his wife had also taken ill and now quarantined in Port Harcourt. The diplomat treated by the doctor is still alive, the report said. The diplomat is believed to be among those who met Mr. Sawyer on his arrival in Lagos. He then flew to Port Harcourt where he took ill. He was treated at an unnamed hotel in the Rivers state capital, an official said."
    "This development, if confirmed will be a big blow to Nigeria’s effort to contain the deadly virus. With only one case being treated in Lagos, the Minister of Health had declared Tuesday that Nigeria had succeeded in checkmating the spread of the virus in the country."

    If the virus gets out of containment in Lagos it could mean... well, I don't even want to think about it.
    Aug 28 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    77 new deaths by Ebola in W Africa over last 4 days; 198 over the last 5 days; 39.6 deaths/day average. Liberia had the majority as could be expected after the looting event last week of an Ebola clinic.
    Aug 25 01:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    Good story, Guns. I understand the point about brandy having lived in northern Wisconsin for a couple of years. They like their brandy up there. I think someone told me that if you subtract the brandy consumption of Wisconsin from the total consumption of the U.S. and compare Wisconsin with global consumption of countries, Wisconsin used to rank 5th in the world. It helps fight off cold symptoms; or at least that is what they told me.
    Aug 21 10:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    121 new deaths reported today in one day. Last report was yesterday. I suspect that all were not reported yesterday and some carried over into today's total. Even if we average the two reporting periods the average deaths per day over the last 5 days is still the highest yet at 41/day. Congo is not included, of course, since those are not considered linked to Ebola.
    Aug 21 07:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator August 16, 2014 To September 14, 2014 [View instapost]
    My highest point was Blanca Peak in Colorado; we used to live about 35 miles from the base. Nothing technical to it, just a very long steep hike and a little climbing at the end (about the last 400 ft). We went up mid August and got caught in a small sleet storm that turned into snow. It's really better to make it a 2-day hike as we couldn't spend hardly any time at the top because it was already mid-afternoon and we needed to get back down before sundown. We started the day before 6 a.m. at the base.

    If anyone wants to go up there consider it a two-day excursion. Camp at 12,000 feet in the flat meadow just below the talus leading up to the peak. Getting to the peak before noon is important because clouds usually form in the afternoon almost every day year-round.
    Aug 20 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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