Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Mark Bern, CFA  

View Mark Bern, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Competition among corporations takes a new turn! "Although the possibility of "drone skeet" is interesting ;-)
    Or drone-on-drone aerial combat. That could be fun!"

    I like that idea, shb. New jobs creation for gun owners. I wonder if liberals will want to regulate what guns and ammo are used for the drone-skeet competition.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - I am thinking about the $12.50 strike, myself. Annualized yield above 67% (16.8% in 3 months) if it rebounds and I don't get it. I could live with that, too.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - I thought of that, too. But I think that sometime in the next 3 years oil prices will rebound enough to give MEMP a chance to hedge some more future production. If not, I'll be looking to get out early in year 3. That is when I would expect the bottom to fall out and actual losses to occur. Until then I think that, if I can get in under $10 by selling an Oct put, it should hold up with the exception of a sort of decay factor.

    By the end of year 3, if unable to sell before then, I should have collected $6.60 per share and only be risking about $3.40. I could be wrong.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    We are now near the peak in summer driving and the demand for oil at refineries is also running at record levels. Refineries are operating at 95% last I looked and that is higher than in previous years. I can't help but think that when school starts again and vacations end the demand will slack off. World oil supply is unlikely to fall as fast. U.S. production will trend lower but the rate will be slow for a while yet. Most (if not all) producing wells will continue to pump oil. We just won't be adding new production. I could be wrong. Even if the price does rise up to that $70-80 level that will make many fracking field profitable.

    Don't forget that there are already over 4,000 wells already drilled but not yet producing just waiting for the price to rise into that profitable areas so that future production can be hedged and the fracking starts again. Now, that is not to say it will be the same owners that drilled the wells, but those wells will produce when price reach those levels. Somebody will turn on the spigots.

    My point is that I believe that any rise to those levels will be temporary, especially if the leaps prices also trade into those levels. Hedge, frack, pump!

    I think a lot of folks, even industry insiders are missing that. Many are just too emotionally connected to the concept of higher prices. Many of them really need higher prices so they can stop losing money and avoid bankruptcy. And then there are those who know that perceptions are more important than reality and if they can just convince enough investors that oil prices are going to rise they will be able to change perception and get out of their own losing positions. LOL! Sorry, that may not be so funny.

    But, having said all that, I agree that MEMP is probably a buy at these levels for the income; at least for the next 3 years.
    Jul 28, 2015. 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Well, DOW futures are now down to 17,552 (last at 6:32 p.m.)
    and trending lower.

    I think that the DOW futures had gotten too far ahead of the market and had to correct just to get back in line with reality. But now has gone below the close by about 80 pts. I suppose tomorrow will either sort things out or tell us something more interesting. The futures are supposed to be predictive (perception of where the index will be sometime in the next 30 days for the closest contract). So, it does not always move in sync with the current market.

    If the futures continue to go down we'll know that speculators are betting on stock falling from here. But, then again, we are only about 41 pts from the the high on the S&P 500 but about 700 pts below the DOW 52-wk high. I guess industrials (or large caps) are unloved at the moment.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    The thing that I expect to draw out the process in China is the gov't buying with a fund of nearly $1 trillion in buying power (including margin) the markets there will find support until that runs out.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks, Trip. We all appreciate your facilitating this thread soooo much!
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    With the market up big I would have thought that there would be more new 52-week highs; only 34 and 195 new lows. I know the market has been down the last 3 days but we are still only 1.9% off the high for the S&P500 index. This seems to indicate that fewer and fewer stocks are leading the indexes higher to me. What am I missing?
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    I've been wondering also. Thanks for mentioning it, Maya. I hope HTL is right about how he may be busy traveling.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    shb - Good one! And, BTW, I'm afraid my paranoia shows more than I'd like, too.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    WTI crude ended the day down $1.08/bbl. Now at $47.06. This week is starting out with a bang!
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    I should be fine until the EPA starts digging up septic tanks to ensure compliance.
    Jul 27, 2015. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Looking at the DOW (-466), Nasdaq (-167), and S&P (-48) futures and all are down big time in real time: http://bit.ly/1D2jkmQ

    Copper down another 5.5%!
    All losses are based upon prior futures close on Friday. The futures had been mostly heading higher compared to the underlying so these % drops do not represent actual losses from the index closing levels, but rather from inflated futures close levels. Amazing how perceptions can change so quickly over a weekend!
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Jeff Gundlach (the new bond king) predicts the next big short will be in junk bonds. http://bit.ly/1D2jkmQ

    Article quoted from WSJ article:
    "Wall Street is preparing for panic on Main Street.
    Hedge funds are lining up to profit from potential trouble at some “alternative” mutual funds and bond exchange-traded funds that have boomed in popularity among retirees and other individual investors."

    It looks like more than just the frackers debt could be pummeled soon as hedgies line up to make money. If this is true it could very well get overdone.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Wipes! Good alternative to help storage capacity. But more of a last minute buy since they dry up.

    Fortunately we have a creek running near the edge of our property (down hill side) and will be able to flush as needed.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,400 Comments
13,799 Likes