Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Mark Bern, CFA  

View Mark Bern, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    The birth-death model is an estimate by DOL of jobs created as a result of new small businesses being created. Each January, DOL does a huge adjustment to the model for the prior year. This is NEVER reported via MSM. The adjustment is always a downward revision of several hundred thousand jobs. All prior months that were supposedly "finalized" get adjusted once more each year. If the original reports added up to 2 million new jobs created, after the annual adjustment the actual number is usually somewhere around 1.4 million. The model is consistently off by 20k or more per month, sometimes a lot more.

    In most months the number of jobs added as an estimate to the total that have been verified is almost always over half. The B-D model estimates are done quarterly. In 2014, Q1 estimate included 234,000 jobs. The annual adjustment in 2015 for 2014 B-D estimates was rather low at only -275,000.

    You really have to dig into the BLS site to find the data.
    May 8, 2015. 04:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    I wonder how many of the new jobs created in this jobs report were based upon the birth-death model estimation. I am guessing that number will be well over 60% of the reported jobs increase. Any takers?
    May 8, 2015. 11:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    DG - I like the parts where it states that the material is not regulated! So why do regulations require reported of non-regulated matter?
    May 8, 2015. 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    VW - Interesting concept. I believe that a strategic national water supply system could be a boon to the economy. Building the infrastructure (rail & pipelines), and the transportation costs would only be a small sliver of the benefits. Reducing the impacts of drought could be huge and keep a lid on the future cost of water resources if implemented correctly.

    Who's going to worry about a water pipeline spill?
    May 7, 2015. 07:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks, WT. I am waiting patiently for an opportunity to get back in. I still believe that the Euro will fall below parity to the US$ eventually. But, for now, the ECB action has perspectives supporting growth in the EZ economies. If growth is miniscule (which is what I expect) for a while and then slows again I'll think about starting a position again.
    May 7, 2015. 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To May 23, 2015 [View instapost]
    Turkey farmers that miss this scourge will have much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. A shortage in turkeys should push prices up for those remaining birds brought to market.
    May 7, 2015. 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Maya - Good of you to call Cramer.
    May 4, 2015. 06:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    The link below contains a video that is very informative for anyone interested in natgas. It is long (almost 2.4 hours), but well worth the time (if you have it). Excellent study on world gas prices and supplies explained.

    http://bit.ly/1AAxiG3
    May 4, 2015. 05:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    DivyitUp - You are correct! Thank you for catching the error. I have made edits to the article (for BID) and resubmitted to the SA editorial staff for correction. They are usually very quick in this department.

    I apologize for any confusion the incorrect data in the table for BID may have caused anyone.
    May 4, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Bill Gross' annual Outlook letter link:

    Caution! The following link may contain material that is inappropriate for those who frighten easily; especially those who have a greater than normal fear of death.

    http://bit.ly/1v7I3kx
    May 4, 2015. 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    DG - Good point! Demand just isn't climbing fast enough to keep up with supply. Supply is not falling fast enough to bring balance. Thousands of wells are drilled and ready to start flowing if the price rises enough (in the U.S. shale plays). I just think the probabilities favor another correction in oil prices before we can mount much of a push to the $75-$80 range. That level may come back in the future (and I do believe it will eventually, and more) but in the next 6-12 months I find it hard to believe, at least not on a sustainable basis. If oil price hits those levels we'll see more drilling and increases in production/supply again.

    I still think we'll see $40 oil sometime in 2015.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    Fear & Greed; leviek,

    Appreciate your sharing views in such a respectful manner. We all have opinions and reading what everyone else thinks helps us all find our own convictions, right or wrong. Thanks for you comments!
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mercy - Thanks for the bloomberg link on oil. That one slide with all the wells drilled and ready to pump, but companies just waiting for a better oil price in the futures market so they can sell future production and start pumping again caught my eye. It certainly looks as though there will be a ceiling on oil prices for a while. The bottom? Who knows!?
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    I was wondering where you'd been. Missed your sense of humor! Glad you're back.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    skin tags - my dad used to pull them out as far as he could bear while my mom would tie a piece of thread around the base, cutting off the blood circulation. A few days later the tags would start to die and then fall off.

    I just go to the doctor and have him/her cut 'em off every few years.

    Where do they come from? Don't know. But they tend to develop in some of the worst places. So I am guessing that friction may play a part. According to the following link skin tags are most often associated with obesity. I notice that when I gain weight I get them. So, when I lose weight I get them removed and they don't show up again until I gain again.

    This time I'm going to lose it all and keep it off! I'll show 'em.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,175 Comments
13,738 Likes