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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    I own some puts on USO bought on Feb 11. Not the best timing for entry but they're in the black and got a nice bump today. I doubt that we will see oil prices go down in a straight line, so there may be some opportunities to take profit along the way and get back in. This is one of my few short term plays outside of selling puts on stocks I want to own or selling calls on stocks I do own.
    Mar 13, 2015. 07:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    I got into EUO on January 26th (a little too early) in conjunction with an article I wrote including a buy on EUO. Thus, I am only up about 13.4% so far. But I agree with Maya that I believe there is still a ways to go. I fully expect the Euro to fall to near $0.80 by later this year, once the impact of QE is fully priced in. I may take profits before then, though, as I don't like to get too greedy. I'd rather walk away with a good profit risking leaving a little on the table than leave my money at risk for a few pennies more.
    Mar 11, 2015. 06:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    S&P just broke down through the lower range of the bollinger bands and the 50-day SMA. The 200-day SMA stands at about 2001 as of today (but will change over time, of course).
    Mar 11, 2015. 12:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    East less beef! LOL
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Maya - Agree completely! Good insight and takeaway from this conversation.
    Mar 9, 2015. 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Maya - Are you measuring retracement from December low to recent high?
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Or Stocks...Will The Market Representing The Real Economy Please Stand Up? [View article]
    Monger2 - I believe that 2014 data is incomplete because EIA has published data through Q3 only.
    Mar 8, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Or Stocks...Will The Market Representing The Real Economy Please Stand Up? [View article]
    Oil price will fall some more as storage capacity is maxed out by June. Even Warren Buffett sold his huge stake in XOM recently, plus a smaller stake in COP. He must think oil prices have further to go down. He must also believe that oil prices will no longer rebound significantly. I agree.
    Mar 8, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Apparently Buffett also believes that the price of oil has further down to go. He sold his stakes in XOM and COP

    http://bit.ly/1EriC27
    Mar 7, 2015. 10:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Utilities and preferred stock are both interest rate sensitive.
    Mar 6, 2015. 05:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    One other winner is Kythera (KYTH) which is up another 6.32% today after rising over 25% yesterday. I think that Doc was right about the potential of this one. I checked the company web site and found sales positions posted. Company is hiring/training sales for product launch.

    As good as it seems I think I'll wait for a pull back to get in. I missed it earlier selling puts that now appear will expire worthless. Small gain, though.
    Mar 6, 2015. 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv, Very good points. But we must also consider that oil going into storage may also be counted as demand on the global scale. China is building add'l storage capacity as quickly as it can to take advantage of the low prices while they last. What happens when all the storage capacity is full? If "real" demand (as opposed to spec demand) does not increase to take up the slack I expect the price to fall further.

    But, as you say, when the weather warms and the refinery strike ends demand could spike from current levels domestically. I am just not sure that it will be enough to absorb 8-10 million bbls/week. I suspect that oil analysts believe it will even out, but I have my doubts that an increase of 1.2 million bbls/day will happen. We will see how it all plays out.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    We only got about 9 inches here in Virginia where I live. It was pretty while it was coming down. Now, after shoveling...not so much!
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Kythera (KYTH) was up 24.74% to $49.77 (up $9.87 on the day) at about noon today. Now up only 22.72%. The jump is attributed to early release of briefing docs by FDA ahead of 3/9 Advisory Committee meeting. Must be some positive news in those release docs.
    Mar 5, 2015. 01:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Very powerful video, Maya.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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