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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    mark07yu - Count me in the group that does NOT! Thank you.

    Seriously, there are a lot of questions that cannot be answered accurately about China's growth figures. So, it's really a guessing game.
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    thechaser - Okayl I think you may even be more bearish than 1Great CPA above. I mean that as a compliment, of course!
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    1GreatCFA - Well, I must admit that you may even be more bearish than I am at the moment. And that's saying something!
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    JH77 - I can't deny that Zero Hedge has been bearish the whole time. I don't go there often (only when a friend suggests a specific article) but sometimes they hit on some interesting information that turns out to be factual, even if they spin it to be worse that it really is.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Robert,

    I do that and would recommend it more (and used to) but SA has discouraged suggesting the use of options to buy stocks. The only articles I have had turned down by editors have been for recommending to sell options instead of recommending a firm price at which to buy a stock. I have had to change to survive here.

    But, thanks for the input and I definitely agree with the strategy. However, to be successful an investor needs to sell the most current contract expirations every month and even then could just miss an execution. But the income can still be worth the effort if one has the time.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Commodities have been falling for years, with the exception of oil which started falling late last year. Where is all the growth in consumption and the economic expansion that should accompany these windfalls?

    Sorry, but I believe will have to agree to disagree. But I thank you for voicing your opinion.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Rubygreta - Preferred trade similar to stocks but generally in a tighter range. They share some of the appreciation, but not all, and the higher yield of the dividends usually keep them from falling as far. That is, except in the case of a business in distress; then preferred stocks will often act more like a bond, which can be pretty nasty if the company has debt issues.

    I have not done any analysis on PFF so I cannot make any judgement. What I do in looking at an ETF is to pick the top holdings of the fund representing at least 30% of the NPV. Then I look at the quality of those companies starting with credit ratings, revenue growth, earnings growth, and debt all compared to industry averages for each category. I want to know if the fund holds the best companies in the industries or not. Quality matters!

    I hope this helps. Sorry I could not be more specific.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Santa - You may just be onto something there. I have not been able to bring myself to trust the financial industry since 2008. There is no transparency in the books and each one has its own proprietary method of valuing its assets. As a retired CPA that seems insane!
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    DianaH - I consider equities and bonds both as asset classes and I also believe that we have developed bubbles in both. We can disagree on that, but that is my opinion.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Another good explanation of the problems with too much intervention. Eventually it will fail if used for too long.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    33997125 - Combine the Yuan devaluation with the US$ strength and suddenly commodities that trade in US$ become more expensive in many countries. On top of that commodity demand continues to fall hurting those EMs that rely on resource exports.

    Good points! Thanks for sharing.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Shawnality - Thanks for sharing you perspective and opinions. We may disagree on some points but it is always refreshing to consider other point of view.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Conservative - I intend to do just that but am also trying hard not be too early. Even the stocks that already represent bargains can still get mauled in the midst of a bear market. But, that said there are a few companies that are beginning to look good to me. I plan to write write more articles focused on individual companies in the coming weeks. But I have a couple more industry pieces I want to finish up first. I may be wrong but I don't think there is any hurry to catch the bottom here in anything.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Rudolf - Thanks for pointing that out. You are exactly right! We still have quite a ways to go for this to be considered a crash. It just seems like it because of the speed of this initial drop. If it is a crash and if we do have a global recession, the drop should get overdone on the downside during a capitulation phase as fear completely takes over the market and even many of those who thought they could weather the storm panic sell. We are no where near that point yet and it will likely require more than one leg down to achieve with one or more rebounds that brings the weak hands back in just in time to get clobbered again. Eventually the weak hands give up and only the true value investors will nibble on the long side. Everyone else will be selling.

    Of course, that assumes this turns out to be a bear market which, so far, looks as though it could be the case.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    harrik - I posted the results thus far in this article. http://seekingalpha.co...

    Sor far so good! Some of the puts are doing very well already but the strategy is designed to really kick in when the market gets down by 15% and will do even better if the economy falls into recession. My best winner so far is up over 1200% and lots of others up in the triple-digit range, but the best is yet to come!

    Thanks for asking.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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