Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Mark Bern, CFA  

View Mark Bern, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    HTL - Thank you for the kind sentiment. My wish for you is the same. And yes, the memories (up to the last days) are all good.
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Interesting chart of the Shenzhen Composite:

    http://yhoo.it/1KihyQX#{"showSma":true,"smaC...

    Looking at the 5-yr chart helps put things into perspective. The speculation got overdone and the ensuing correction looks to be painful. But how this affects (or not) the world market is anyone's guess.
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    HTL - My belated condolences. My sister was 60 and held on 'til Halloween, her favorite holiday of the year. 36 is way too young, though. The younger one is when taken the harder it is for those left behind.
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    MJ - How true:
    "That $154M per taxpayer in the US -- does not even count the off-balance sheet liabilities of the US government which are estimated to add another $40T+ to that $18T base."

    With unfunded liabilities the number is $818,310 per taxpayer (not per citizen). So people like Mark Z., Sergey B. and Larry P., who receive only $1 salaries per year, and therefore pay no income taxes, are probably not included.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator May 23, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    I 2nd D-inv sentiments. Hang on, LT! My sister was given 1 year to live but fought her cancer tooth and nail. She lived another 5 years (about 4 good ones) before her tenacity was overcome. She simply refused to give up. I suspect that her will was more important than the medicine she rec'd.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    LT - I tend to agree that banks will bail (if they can) when better options are available and potential losses appear imminent. Pension funds, in most cases, have their hands tied and will get stuck holding. No realized losses, but the unrealized losses will cause some pain.

    A lot of individual investors also buy to hold to maturity; more than I imagined. But that is how these securities are sold by most advisors: buy bonds for the milk (income), stocks for the meat (appreciation).

    That's what they are trained to do and most are mere sales people with minimum training to pass securities tests which focus primarily on the laws; very little about investment analysis. I tried being an advisor for one of the big firms but I wasn't a good enough sales person and didn't meet quotas. I decided that it wasn't for me. The training I received was all about selling and developing a relationship. I was expected to rely blindly upon the central office analysts to build portfolios and make recommendations. All I was supposed to do was gather information, input it into the system and the software would do the rest. Usually, it directed me to sell high commission "products." I just couldn't do that to people. I only lasted about a year. The ethics of the industry didn't fit my belief system.
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    My thought is that as int rates rise more investors will consider moving to bonds (especially high quality) for yield and lower risk vs stocks. But that's just my opinion.

    It seems like a lot of investors who would normally own balanced portfolios are shying away from bonds but might go back in if the yields were better for the diversification.
    Jun 20, 2015. 02:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    D-inv, As bond yields rise the price drops and investors are worried that bonds will rise more, so bonds are being sold ahead of Fed rate increase; this, in turn, puts further pressure on bond prices, forcing rates higher.

    I suspect that this is all no more than a nervous reaction by traders (not investors) and will settle down over the next few months. Of course, as always, I could be wrong.
    Jun 19, 2015. 05:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Answer to #2: Companies generally issue more shares at lower prices to retire debt when interest rates rise too much to make the debt too expensive to roll over.

    Buy high - sell low!
    Jun 19, 2015. 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    But easier for gov't to control (imagination provided by political leadership here) so mergers will probably go through. Plus, those that supported O-care are in good graces.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    No cajones no ganacias!

    And yes, I know cajones means drawers, but it seems to get used colloquially for something else.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    dapizz - Real Estate has always been a regional market, not national. Trying to make into something it is not is what the gov't and economists try to do for some reason.

    There were plenty of areas that didn't notice when housing prices were rocketing higher because local prices were trending normally (near the rate of inflation). Those same areas didn't feel the pain when prices collapsed in the hot metro areas, either.

    This guy seems to make that distinction pretty well I think; unlike the index.
    Jun 15, 2015. 03:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    This article on real estate is an eye-opener. If anyone else is interested in real estate, owns big bank stocks or mREITs, this is a must read. Let me know what you think.

    http://bit.ly/1QqtMW0
    Jun 15, 2015. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Not as much at current rate levels, but once rates rise it will become clear that when these bonds must be refinanced at higher rates the wheels will come off sometime in the future. That will get priced in with the rise interest rates if rates go up more that 1%. It will not be the end, just the beginning of the end, imho, for those companies with excess junk debt on the books.
    Jun 15, 2015. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Timeline changing for me and this article. I have decided that I would like to do a multi-part piece on energy first and then include one about MEMP at the end of it. Sorry, but this will take at least another week.
    Jun 15, 2015. 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,279 Comments
13,771 Likes