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Mark Bern, CFA

 
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  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    Mackerel42 - Thanks for sharing your observations. Very well put. My feeling is that even though many Americans have developed anti-MLM prejudices, the Chinese are still very open to the concept, as a billion or so more in other emerging economies may be. I am neither from Utah nor in MLM either. But I see huge potential long-term.
    May 28 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    depueman - My apologies. However the guy took profits. Incredible profits. I wouldn't call that stupid. He has an opinion about the market and is playing by his instincts. If he is wrong he makes less. But that is being cautious, not stupid, imho. I will indeed be watching 2nd half sales in housing and next year's sales as well. In my article just published I am not predicting anything imminent or even a crippling blow to China. I give it three years for an adjustment to take place. I could be wrong, but that is my opinion and I'll stand by that. So, let's see if the housing markets keeps going straight up for another three years.
    May 28 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trigger For The Next China Economic Correction [View article]
    Frog - Thanks for sharing your perspective.

    First, I do not hate China. I believe that the long-term economic future of China is very bright.

    Second, I do not think nor say that China stocks are over valued. My focus is on the real estate market.

    Finally, I am not calling for a crash but a correction; big difference. China has, and will continue to have hiccups along the way. I just think that this one could be a little bigger than in the past. But I have no doubt that the central government is better positioned to minimize the impact locally. My concern is primarily how such an event will adversely affect the still-fragile global economy.
    May 28 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trigger For The Next China Economic Correction [View article]
    Jeremy - I intend to keep watching what happens in China and will update the article if anything of consequence begins to happen. Thanks for the comment.
    May 28 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    haigulike - Thanks for the response. You have more faith in the central government than I do. Only time will tell. I'd rather be wrong and have things continue upward. I'd like to sell my house in a couple of years and it would be nice if the price didn't get hammered again.

    Thanks for adding to the discussion.

    BTW, you're probably going to hate my next article. LOL. I suspect we will be continuing the conversation about China. It's good to consider the views of others and weigh diverse opinions.
    May 28 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    mys - Thanks for adding your perspective to the discussion. The discount factor is important if they like the products.
    May 27 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    youngdiv - We share that sentiment. Thanks.
    May 27 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    Blunt, but true. Thanks.
    May 27 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    I don't like smoking cigarettes, but I like the dividends and prospects of growth from the e-cig products. I don't want the environment to be harmed but energy is one of my largest holdings. I absolutely hate insurance companies but recognize that insurance (along with fossil fuels) are a necessary evil and know that a well-run insurance company is hard to beat as an investment long term. I could go on, but suffice it to say that if I eliminated all the evil from my portfolio I probably wouldn't do very well.

    But, good for you for investing in alignment with your conscience.
    May 27 07:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    We don't differ in opinion as much as you seem to think. I do believe in China for the long-term as you do. I just think a correction would be healthy and it seems that the Chinese government agrees based upon what government officials have said publicly regarding real estate.

    I expect another hiccup, as you call them. The biggest difference is that I expect the next one to be a little bigger than usual and you don't seem to see one coming at all. I am not comparing China to Japan, so don't put me in with that crowd. But I also don't believe that China is about to surpass the U.S. as the largest economy in the next five years either. We can continue to disagree on the degree and timing of the future fortunes of China, but at least we do agree that China has a bright future for investors with a long-term horizon.
    May 27 07:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    Pro - I won't disagree with your sentiment but I still think that most people will take a chance and therein lies the potential for success of the business model. That does not make it right. But it does make it profitable.

    And it still does create new wealth for some who would never have had that chance. Thanks for sharing.
    May 27 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    "Not a very smart businessman." A billionaire is not a very smart investor? In 2011 Pan Shiyi was considered one of the most influential people in real estate in China, along with his wife. They have accumulated a net worth of about $2 billion, mostly from investing in real estate. I consider that to be a credible opinion. I am sorry if you disagree. I can respect your opinion as I believe we are all welcome to voice our opinions freely.

    Now granted, it was not a good thing for the CEO of a major real estate holding company to say publicly, but he did not intend for the statement to be publicized. He thought he could trust those he spoke to; apparently he was wrong there, too. A bad decision to speak one's mind is not a great reason to judge a wealthy person's investing acumen. It was just a bad decision apart from what he said. So, he made two bad decisions: to say what he said in public and to believe he could trust those to whom he was speaking. But he and his wife made a lot of good investing decisions to become billionaires.
    May 27 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Creates A Buying Opportunity For Nu Skin [View article]
    True. Thanks for the perspective.
    May 27 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    Joe - Thanks for posting the link; very pertinent to this discussion.
    May 27 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The China Real Estate Bubble Real? [View article]
    Joe - You mentioned something I was not aware of: the Unified Property Registration System. I agree with your assumption that the rich are buying the vacant properties as investments and that if they are forced to sell en masse ahead of the new law going into effect, there will be fewer buyers and too many listings. That will put downward pressure on prices.

    That one thing could be the trigger that pops the bubble, more than anything else. Thanks for the link. Your logic is well reasoned.
    May 27 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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