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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    avolssov - I think that the era of the Chinese miracle is coming to a major slow down, probably not a complete end, but the high growth it and its trading partners is definitely over. But I look at this as more of a transition over the next few years and a changing of the guard. I think that India is well positioned to take up the mantle that is being dropped by China. I also believe that there is a great deal of potential in parts of Africa to improve the growth picture. I do not believe that the planets are aligned to have a smooth transition, though. It will probably be several years before global trade growth can be revived to the levels we experienced during the last few decades. Pain before gain.

    Thanks for sharing that perspective!
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    "It was certainly a smart move to do so." Until the money runs out!
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Thanks for contributing your views, Moon. I find it interesting that the Dow Jones Transportation Index has been trending down since March 2015. That is usually a precursor to general economic weakness showing up. Funny how that indicator has not been talked about much this year.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    tqlemd - Good advice to all!
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    sunwindgeo - That is a good question! The futures market is supposed to represent investor expectations of future price movement. But, the futures market is just as susceptible to manipulation as equities, probably more so because of the higher leverage. I generally only look at the longer duration futures for guidance. My watching WTI crude is an anomaly for me. The main thing that I try to keep in mind is to keep daily price movements in context of the predominant trend. Only when the trend is broken do I give swings much credence.

    Thanks for asking and I hope this helps.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    koayyijie - Thanks for adding your perspective and the history lesson. But I think that we are already in a deflationary environment. My reasoning? Well, with zero % interest rates over what - five years and counting? A huge bailout of financial industry and auto industry. Two gov't stimulus programs. And then the three enormous QE programs by the Fed. And look what we have to show for it: 2% growth (almost). Such massive interventions and money printing in anything but a deflationary environment would cause massive inflation. But we got...wait for it..........nothing! The economy remains just out of official recession territory.

    1929 was the beginning of a similar deflationary cycle. Much of it relates back to demographics and the aging of the workforce. Europe is in terrible shape in that regard. Japan's workforce (and prime consumers) has been reduced through aging for the last 25 years. Most OECD countries are either on the cusp or already in that declining stage where the largest generation is retiring and reducing consumption. The U.S. is in a little better shape than most, but we are not likely to escape the problem entirely. It appears that the millennial generation isn't going to be able to come to our consumption rescue in time to me. It looks like there is a hole coming in the next year or two or three and we may just fall into it.

    I really don't think that the Fed can keep us out. I do hope it can but would not bet on it.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    funkykOval - Thanks! But I am leaning more toward 13,191. I have my reasons.

    Anyone else want to add a number? This might be a great way to set up the dart board analysis project.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    And at the close today:
    APPL +0.6%
    NFLX +4.79%
    FB +1.11%
    GILD +1.89%
    GOOG -1.28%
    JPM -0.56

    What a difference a few hours can make, huh? These are six large cap stocks that may have been pumped early to move the indexes higher at the opening. Who is doing that? That is a question to which we may never know the answer.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    tampat - You have added greatly to the advice and soundly, too. I tend to not want to make my comments too long (one could easily argue that I fail in that regard) so I tried to keep it to the stock picking rules. Your set of rules belongs right there, too. Thank you!
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    marketwatcher - I suspect many state and local gov't pensions are terribly underfunded and likely to be unable to meet future obligations, with or without the blood bath. One would hope that the managers of those funds have at least half of the assets in bonds (not junk, hopefully) as they are supposed to be and escape at least some of the turmoil. If not, then those companies that manage the funds for the pension trustee should be held accountable. In other words, I think they pay the piper either way, either now or later not if.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    tampat - I can dream can't I? On a more serious note, though, I don't believe that the Fed or gov't can control markets effectively for very long. I think we are now seeing the beginning of the Fed losing what credibility that it has left. The effectiveness of another round of QE will be suspect and telegraph the message that we are still in a very weak economic cycle and the economy is no where near being able to sustain itself without much more help. That message contradicts everything the Fed has been saying since the end of QE3. It will also call into question the effectiveness of ECB's QE program.

    Obviously the banks and major corporations would cheer such a move because it means more cheap money for banks so that they can borrow for nothing and leave at the Fed to get paid interest. And the corps will use the cheap money to buy more stock. Those two things are totally unrelated to growing an economy. Perhaps you are right, though, and Wall Street and the Fed will be able to convince the masses that the economy is just fine.

    Me? I'm just lamenting the days when good fundamental analysis provided an advantage. Sigh.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    snoopy - +4,000 pt. intraday move! Now that's scary!
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Harm - I think that the Fed knows more than it lets on, at least somewhere within the organization. But, if it is run like any other gov't agency, the information that gets to the top decision makers are what they want to hear after reality has been filtered out. So, to your point, perhaps those making the decisions (at least some) are truly clueless, but most of them still believe in themselves more than in a free market. I suspect Mr. Market is about to try teaching them another lesson.

    But, if the dot.com bubble burst and the financial crisis are any indication, the Fed decision makers will not learn much, if anything. Sad, isn't it?
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    maretwatcher - I'm not so sure that isn't already happening! But, without a Fed audit we will never know.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    DG - I'm afraid my brass would get a little tarnished if I played it for her! LOL! But, thanks for the thought. Very cute.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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