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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv, Just blame it on the keyboard 'cause 70 X 70 X 360 = 1,764,000. You may have been trying to hit the decimal button but hit the 0 instead.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    D-Inv,

    Shouldn't that be 7 X 36mbd = 252,000 bls?
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Earnings, overall, should be down in Q1 both sequentially and yoy primarily due to FX. Q2 is likely to have a hard time overcoming FX to compare favorably yoy, but should grow compared to Q1. Guess which comparison will show up in all the headlines?

    Sorry to be so negative. I just don't like the games being played by Wall Street and MSM.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    That can happen when you're in tight with those in charge.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    NVAX is just one of many, many examples of this game. I think S&P 500 EPS estimates are coming in expecting a decline of over 4% y/o/y. I suspect most companies earnings guidance has been revised lower to give them all a chance to "beat" expectations.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Well, would you look at the market today? Just when I get to thinking there is some logic to it...Wham!
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    My thought also. It has the potential to really change the landscape. So, we should be both looking at the opportunity and at the potential areas that could be hurt.
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Interesting article from Zero Hedge on the timing of company buybacks.

    http://bit.ly/1BkwyVE
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    shb - The first chart looks to me to start falling off earlier than other charts I have seen about China's aging population. The 2nd chart must assume that the U.S. plans on a lot of immigration to offset all the boomers and then some. That one doesn't make sense to me. Including immigrants presently in the country and new immigrants to continue entering at a similar pace, there would be a fall off in U.S. working age population for a few years before starting to grow again around the early 2020s. I guess that is why the chart is labeled how it "might" look. I would suggest that they took considerable liberties to get the "might" trajectory they wanted.

    But the China situation, whether exaggerated or not, still has the potential to become a huge problem. The question is more "when" than "if" imho. But question anyone's ability to get the timing right because of market manipulation and central bank interventions.
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    New start up in biotech may have some potential. Still private but looks like it could revolutionize some of the basic testing and drive down costs for the industry. Short, interesting read:

    http://bloom.bg/1yq3Otm
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - Well, you know the saying: "When something seems too good to be true..." LOL
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - You may want to check the math again. I believe that it goes like this: Sell put with $51.50 strike @ $1.50
    Buy a put with $50 strike for $0.50
    Net at this point is $1.00 positive.

    If stock drops below $50, ,then the following happens:
    You are put the stock at a price of $51.50 (buy stock)
    You then put the stock at a price of $50 (sell stock)
    Net of this transaction is negative $1.50 (loss)

    Subtract the original $1.00 net collected from the puts and you still have a loss of $0.50 (not a gain). Thus, you limit your potential loss to $0.50/sh with a potential gain of $1.00.

    The other outcome is that the stock falls below $51.50 but remains above $50. You get put the stock at $51.50 and the put you bought expires worthless. You now own the stock with a cost basis of $50.50.

    If you like the stock at that price this is a good play and you can hold it until it rebounds some more or for the long term. I only use such techniques on stocks that I want to own for the long term (usually stocks with good dividends and history of annual increases).

    Just wanted to make sure you got the math right for decision-making purposes. Unfortunately, zero risk is not available. I wish it were.

    Please correct me if I am wrong.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    That seems very promising...so far.
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    That seems right. INO sold significant # of shares the last two years. Looks like it has plenty to get through another year or more, but that might take cash levels down too low, so I won't be surprised if it raises more again this year. Best to get money while it's still on sale!

    But to me, it is more about the promise of the technology. As long as it is sound and progressing, money won't be a big problem.
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2015 To ?? [View instapost]
    I was reading the disclaimer section (almost as long as the article) and noticed that the good Dr. has a "financial relationship" with all 3 companies. She nor her company, nor the company nor the interviewer own stock in any of the companies. But a financial relationship could easily be a consulting gig to help promote the stock. So, while the article was interesting, I am not so sure it was unbiased and independent.
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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