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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Raymond James analyst Kevin Smith downgraded LINE/LNCO to “Market Perform” on Thursday. He had downgraded the companies to “Outperform” from “Strong Buy” as recently as July 21. He noted Thursday he was “very surprised by management’s decision to fully suspend the distribution.”

    So, is this how he expects the market to perform then? Rate a strong buy until July 21? I guess he didn't see this coming.
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    "Talking out both sides of their mouth comes to mind."

    Mouth?
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    I just love the reporting on Wall Street.

    Headline: "Facebook Q2 results top views on rapid mobile user growth"

    First line: "Facebook (FB) revealed stronger-than-expected second-quarter profits and sales after the close on Wednesday..."

    Next paragraph: "it earned adjusted profits of 50 cents a share, up 16% from a year ago and topping Wall Street analysts' average estimate by three cents."

    Bottom of 3rd paragraph: "net income measured according to generally accepted accounting principles declined 9%"

    Profits up 16% and net income declined 9%! The author seems perplexed as to why FB shares went down in AH trading.
    Jul 29, 2015. 05:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    I just sold MEMP September puts at $1.68/ share. 80% annualized if the stock rebounds and option expire worthless; 13.8% in 2 months. Cost basis if put the shares will be $10.82/sh. with a yield at current dividend of 20.3%.
    Jul 29, 2015. 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Well, the premium has dropped overnight and the returns are not as juicy as yesterday. Still over 14% for 3 months and over 57% annualized.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Competition among corporations takes a new turn! "Although the possibility of "drone skeet" is interesting ;-)
    Or drone-on-drone aerial combat. That could be fun!"

    I like that idea, shb. New jobs creation for gun owners. I wonder if liberals will want to regulate what guns and ammo are used for the drone-skeet competition.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - I am thinking about the $12.50 strike, myself. Annualized yield above 67% (16.8% in 3 months) if it rebounds and I don't get it. I could live with that, too.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    WT - I thought of that, too. But I think that sometime in the next 3 years oil prices will rebound enough to give MEMP a chance to hedge some more future production. If not, I'll be looking to get out early in year 3. That is when I would expect the bottom to fall out and actual losses to occur. Until then I think that, if I can get in under $10 by selling an Oct put, it should hold up with the exception of a sort of decay factor.

    By the end of year 3, if unable to sell before then, I should have collected $6.60 per share and only be risking about $3.40. I could be wrong.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    We are now near the peak in summer driving and the demand for oil at refineries is also running at record levels. Refineries are operating at 95% last I looked and that is higher than in previous years. I can't help but think that when school starts again and vacations end the demand will slack off. World oil supply is unlikely to fall as fast. U.S. production will trend lower but the rate will be slow for a while yet. Most (if not all) producing wells will continue to pump oil. We just won't be adding new production. I could be wrong. Even if the price does rise up to that $70-80 level that will make many fracking field profitable.

    Don't forget that there are already over 4,000 wells already drilled but not yet producing just waiting for the price to rise into that profitable areas so that future production can be hedged and the fracking starts again. Now, that is not to say it will be the same owners that drilled the wells, but those wells will produce when price reach those levels. Somebody will turn on the spigots.

    My point is that I believe that any rise to those levels will be temporary, especially if the leaps prices also trade into those levels. Hedge, frack, pump!

    I think a lot of folks, even industry insiders are missing that. Many are just too emotionally connected to the concept of higher prices. Many of them really need higher prices so they can stop losing money and avoid bankruptcy. And then there are those who know that perceptions are more important than reality and if they can just convince enough investors that oil prices are going to rise they will be able to change perception and get out of their own losing positions. LOL! Sorry, that may not be so funny.

    But, having said all that, I agree that MEMP is probably a buy at these levels for the income; at least for the next 3 years.
    Jul 28, 2015. 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Well, DOW futures are now down to 17,552 (last at 6:32 p.m.)
    and trending lower.

    I think that the DOW futures had gotten too far ahead of the market and had to correct just to get back in line with reality. But now has gone below the close by about 80 pts. I suppose tomorrow will either sort things out or tell us something more interesting. The futures are supposed to be predictive (perception of where the index will be sometime in the next 30 days for the closest contract). So, it does not always move in sync with the current market.

    If the futures continue to go down we'll know that speculators are betting on stock falling from here. But, then again, we are only about 41 pts from the the high on the S&P 500 but about 700 pts below the DOW 52-wk high. I guess industrials (or large caps) are unloved at the moment.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    The thing that I expect to draw out the process in China is the gov't buying with a fund of nearly $1 trillion in buying power (including margin) the markets there will find support until that runs out.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat 282 July 28 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks, Trip. We all appreciate your facilitating this thread soooo much!
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    With the market up big I would have thought that there would be more new 52-week highs; only 34 and 195 new lows. I know the market has been down the last 3 days but we are still only 1.9% off the high for the S&P500 index. This seems to indicate that fewer and fewer stocks are leading the indexes higher to me. What am I missing?
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    I've been wondering also. Thanks for mentioning it, Maya. I hope HTL is right about how he may be busy traveling.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    shb - Good one! And, BTW, I'm afraid my paranoia shows more than I'd like, too.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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