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Mark Bern, CFA  

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  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    DG - Good point! Demand just isn't climbing fast enough to keep up with supply. Supply is not falling fast enough to bring balance. Thousands of wells are drilled and ready to start flowing if the price rises enough (in the U.S. shale plays). I just think the probabilities favor another correction in oil prices before we can mount much of a push to the $75-$80 range. That level may come back in the future (and I do believe it will eventually, and more) but in the next 6-12 months I find it hard to believe, at least not on a sustainable basis. If oil price hits those levels we'll see more drilling and increases in production/supply again.

    I still think we'll see $40 oil sometime in 2015.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    Fear & Greed; leviek,

    Appreciate your sharing views in such a respectful manner. We all have opinions and reading what everyone else thinks helps us all find our own convictions, right or wrong. Thanks for you comments!
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mercy - Thanks for the bloomberg link on oil. That one slide with all the wells drilled and ready to pump, but companies just waiting for a better oil price in the futures market so they can sell future production and start pumping again caught my eye. It certainly looks as though there will be a ceiling on oil prices for a while. The bottom? Who knows!?
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    I was wondering where you'd been. Missed your sense of humor! Glad you're back.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    skin tags - my dad used to pull them out as far as he could bear while my mom would tie a piece of thread around the base, cutting off the blood circulation. A few days later the tags would start to die and then fall off.

    I just go to the doctor and have him/her cut 'em off every few years.

    Where do they come from? Don't know. But they tend to develop in some of the worst places. So I am guessing that friction may play a part. According to the following link skin tags are most often associated with obesity. I notice that when I gain weight I get them. So, when I lose weight I get them removed and they don't show up again until I gain again.

    This time I'm going to lose it all and keep it off! I'll show 'em.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    giofls - Good for you! Take what the market gives you.
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    With the Fed now entering the "regulatory arena" on banking and the major banks literally being owners of the Fed I don't see much pain heading in the direction of big banks in these areas.

    Other regulators will make prescribe (as HTL put it, cost of doing business penalties) smallish fines that look big to the public for PR. But the TBTF financials continue to rule the roost and will be allowed to skim profits from the masses to strengthen balance sheets in preparation for the next major financial storm.

    That seems to be the goal of the Fed and regulators, unfortunately the need to attain the end has been uesed to justified the means and will continue to allow corrupt activities as long as the public will take it. And that could be along time because the public, by and large, does not understand what is being done to it.

    Just my two bits (inflation).
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    Robert - I agree with your assessment of the appearance of a bottom in commodities. However, I think that the long-term downward trend will remain intact for at least few more years making this current move just a temporary bounce. Commodities have generally exhibited long-term cycles. This time may be different because of all the external monetary stimulus by central banks, but I doubt it the difference will be so much.

    The commodity cycle, from trough to trough or from top to top, usually lasts around 30 years. That does not mean 15 years up and 15 down. But the down leg has, in the past, taken longer than 3 or 4 years. I am guessing that this time it will, too.

    My point is that we need to be nimble if we are to invest in commodities at this point in the cycle. I do agree with your assertion that we are seeing a lot of sector rotation. That happens is a lot in bull markets. Leadership changes, but the overall market trudges ever higher. It is when there is no sector(s) to lead that the bears can take over.

    Good luck and stay cautious!
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    chongkim74 - Sorry, but while I do not want a recession either I believe it will come sooner than you hope. Thanks for commenting.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    Robert - Thanks for sharing your positions. And I think that bonds (especially junk bonds) could very well be a potential trigger. But, honestly, I don't know with any conviction where the problem will come from. That's the problem with black swan events. They are, by definition, events that were not foreseen.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #280, April 16, 2015 [View instapost]
    QUAL, right?
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    Fear & Greed - Thank you for sharing your perspectives. We may disagree but it is good that we can do so respectfully.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    useruser14141 - Agree with the expectation that the next recession could come later rather than sooner and will likely be worse that 2008. But I don't profess to know how to time the market well, so I'll just stay prepared and hedged until it comes. Also agree that those in power (especially central banks) are doing their best to extend the recovery cycle even though it has been a weak one. Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    leviek - Appreciate your insight. But also with all due respect, my strategy has worked for me in the past. I have tried many methods and settled on this one through experience.
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! April 2015 Update [View article]
    moatfrog - I know what you mean. It seems that there is a plethora of such articles now. I started this series one year ago (before it was so fashionable) and intend to stick with it until the next recession actually occurs. I don't want to leave readers hanging without the follow through.

    Thanks for commenting.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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