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Mark Campbell

 
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  • How Apple's Current Price Is Justified [View article]
    The drive down in Apple is driven mostly by fear that its margins will decline due to increased competition. In 2012 AAPL enjoyed a gross margin of 43.8%, operating margin of 35.2%, and a 26.6% profit margin leading to a substantial 44.15 EPS last year.

    If AAPL must lower its product prices in order to compete these margins will not be as significant and therefore EPS will be significantly less. For instance Dell had a gross margin of only 20.9% last year. If AAPL gross margin declined to 30% it would represent a 25 billion dollar loss of revenue (based on 2012 numbers). This could take its net income from 41.7B to 16.7B and would represent an EPS of only 17.6.

    AAPL still has great growth prospects as it still doesn't have a majority market share in personal computers or smartphones for any market. Its products are still have not been fully embraced outside the US and if AAPL can change this its EPS will balloon. Unfortunately, if AAPL has another earnings miss in January and more evidence of declining margins continue then the stock could easily be trading in the 300's in February.
    Dec 16 10:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ways To Profit As Greece Defaults [View article]
    One way to profiting with FXE it to buy a distant out of the money call option like July 135 and selling weekly 130 call options though I may move it down to 129 next week.
    May 14 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know To Trade Apple Earnings [View article]
    The Wednesday close before weekly earnings and before the weekly options were created AAPL closed at $608. Today it closed at $603, despite the pre-earnings decline. I standby my assertion that AAPL is stable during earnings week. However, I did buy a May call option because I would bet that AAPL is going to slowly rise in the coming weeks.
    Apr 27 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Maximize Your Apple Profit [View article]
    When you write an article you have to choose one of three generic disclosures then there is room to add an additional disclosure. None of the three generic disclosures accurately describe my position so I add more detail in an optional text box below hence the contradiction.
    Apr 18 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Maximize Your Apple Profit [View article]
    True but some investments are more of a gamble than others.
    Apr 17 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Maximize Your Apple Profit [View article]
    Buying OTM calls would be equivalent to a long position. If Apple has a poor earnings report you can likely kiss your money good bye. I'm looking for a reliable trading pattern that is profitable.
    Apr 17 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Options To Maximize Your Apple Profit [View article]
    I disclose it to be honest I purchased it just before the ipad 3 release when IV was high. I get maximum profit if the stock is between 560 and 690 at the end of this week.
    Apr 17 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know To Trade Apple Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for the compliment. As an engineer I've been trained to write in a very dry and straightforward manner.
    Apr 16 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know To Trade Apple Earnings [View article]
    It is an historically stable stock during earnings week as evident by the graph. I agree it has been kind of wild since it broke 500.
    Apr 16 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Need To Know To Trade Apple Earnings [View article]
    That is coming in my next article.
    Apr 16 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2012 Performance [View instapost]
    Thanks. I didn't include your non-earning plays as that may be a cause for any deviation plus I could always make a mistake.

    On a separate note using this techniqueI opened trades on CREE and GS on Thursday and closed them on Friday. I made a solid 10% after commissions on GS and 6.5% on CREE. My limit on GS hit its mark in the morning and I didn't want to hold CREE through the weekend and decided to just take the profit. I'm looking forward to a full earnings season.
    Apr 14 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2012 Performance [View instapost]
    My math counts exactly 50 trades that were entered into during the first three months of this year (one earnings cycle). The average return per trade was 3.8% per trade. Assuming this is reduced 1.5% for the cost associated with commissions the return is 2.3% per trade. The average return (2.3%) per trade multiplied by 50 trades is 115%. Therefore the return with this method is 115% whatever someone allocates per trade.

    If an investor allocates 10% of their portfolio every trade they would have returned 11.5% of their portfolio this past quarter.

    If an investor allocates 15% of their portfolio every trade they would have returned 17.3% of their portfolio this past quarter.

    If a particularly risky investor allocates 20% of their portfolio every trade they would have returned 23% of their portfolio this past quarter.

    Quite impressive for non-directional trading.
    Apr 14 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rise In Implied Volatility Before Earnings For 3 Key Financial Stocks [View article]
    The close before earnings release:

    JPM climbs to 62%

    WFC drops to 55%
    Apr 12 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rise In Implied Volatility Before Earnings For 3 Key Financial Stocks [View article]
    For current option chains any quality broker should do this automatically, it is the historical IV that can be difficult to find. You may need to change a setting in your trading window to view IV which is what I had to do with my broker. I'm currently using trade monster and I have been quite happy with them.
    Apr 11 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rise In Implied Volatility Before Earnings For 3 Key Financial Stocks [View article]
    After Wednesday Close:

    JPM remains at 53%

    WFC continue to climb to 59%
    Apr 11 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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45 Comments
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